IN-Sen: Pence Competitive in Hypothetical Matchup with Bayh

Rasmussen (1/21 & 24, likely voters):

Evan Bayh (D-inc): 44

Mike Pence (R): 47

Other: 3

Not sure: 7

Evan Bayh (D-inc): 44

John Hostettler (R): 41

Other: 3

Not sure: 12

Evan Bayh (D-inc): 45

Marlin Stutzman (R): 33

Other: 5

Not sure: 16

(MoE: ±3.5%)

Is there a Republican candidate out there sitting on a fence who needs some convincing to enter a race? Count on Rasmussen to ride to the rescue! With the news that Republican Rep. Mike Pence was thinking about a run against entrenched, moneybags Evan Bayh in the Indiana Senate race, Rasmussen did a quick poll finding that Pence is right in the thick of things, leading Bayh by 3. (They also find ex-Rep. John Hostettler, a much flakier and less disciplined presence than Pence, within striking distance of Bayh.) Pence, for what it’s worth, said he’d make a decision over the weekend, but no response yet as of this morning.

Given the downturn in Democrats’ fortunes lately, especially in the red states, it’s not a surprise to see a Republican competitive here. Still, something’s a little weird here: Bayh is well up in the safety zone, with an approval of 58% (and 38% disapprove, with a shockingly low 4% not sure). Is this a Dorgan-style result where his popularity is trumped by the state’s lean? No, because there’s no Hoeven-style figure looming with even greater popularity. Still, the Republicans also seem to have strangely high approvals, despite, one would assume, being little-known outside their own districts: Pence is at 54/25, and Hostettler (out of the picture since 2006) is at 44/27.

RaceTracker Wiki: IN-Sen

9 thoughts on “IN-Sen: Pence Competitive in Hypothetical Matchup with Bayh”

  3. I don’t see Hostettler winning this race unless Bayh is caught in a major scandal.  Pence could make this race interesting, but this race has too many “what ifs” for me to think he will entertain running in this race.

    Bayh may not be popular with us, but he is popular in Indiana.  I think he will win the race no matter who the GOP throws at us.

  4. but those Hostettler numbers seriously make me question the validity of Rasmussen’s poll, given Hostettler’s low profile when he was actually in Congress, and given how he couldn’t even get 40% in his own district when he lost in 2006 to Brad Ellsworth.  When you lose by a worse margin than Rick Santorum did, that’s saying something.  And it was a district McCain won as Obama won the state, so I’m not seeing how his numbers improve on a statewide basis, unless we’re talking about a dead cat bounce (like the slight improvement in Cheney’s approval ratings since he left office).

    If Hostettler got Stutzman-like numbers around 33%, I wouldn’t have much of a problem accepting Rasmussen’s numbers.  But the 41% is a stretch, and I’ll want to withhold judgment until I can see an unbiased poll confirming it.

  5. His poll numbers are only as high as they are because of the national environment. His 2006 campaign was such an utter disaster- there’s no way he can compete with a politician as slick and well-funded as Bayh. It probably doesn’t help that his ideology is an esoteric mix of Christian fundamentalism and Ron Paul internet paranoia.

    Also, w00t Mike Pence!  

  6. http://hoosieraccess.com/blog/…

    This says that Pence trailed Bayh by a small margin in the NRSC’s internal polling. I would be a lot less skeptical if the Bayh/Pence numbers were reversed. Also, Bayh leading Hostettler by three points? Given that the guy failed to break 40% in his last reelection campaign, implied that a group of breast cancer survivors had had abortions, and brought a loaded gun to the Louisville airport, I really don’t buy his being out of the low to mid 30s, or his 44/27 favorable rating.

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