I honestly doubt that the Massachusetts legislature will opt to eliminate Rep. Stephen Lynch when they decide which district to axe following the 2010 census. However, as a relatively moderate Democrat in a D+11, I know he pisses a lot of people here off, like a mini-Artur Davis or Joe Lieberman. So while it may be unrealistic, I figured it might be interesting in the spirit of SSP to take a look at how we might go about tearing up Lynch’s district and minimizing his chances of election in other districts. Under the new plan, his district is split between several other districts, meaning he can’t count on all of his base to be there in any one district. Furthermore, should he decide to run again, Lynch would have to face a Democratic incumbent rather than sneaking through an open race with multiple opponents to split the liberal vote, which was how he won in 2001. So without further ado, here are the maps:
Western Mass/Berkshires:
http://img191.imageshack.us/i/…
Central Mass/Worcester Area:
http://img691.imageshack.us/i/…
Merrimack Valley/North Shore:
http://img18.imageshack.us/i/p…
Boston Area:
http://img685.imageshack.us/i/…
Southern Suburbs/Providence Suburbs:
http://img59.imageshack.us/i/p…
Southeast Mass, Including Cape and Islands:
http://img704.imageshack.us/i/…
Description over the flip.
District 1 (Darker Blue)
Incumbent: John Olver (D-AMHERST)
Demographics: 86% White, 2% Black, 0% Native American, 2% Asian, 8% Hispanic, 1% Other
Population Deviation: +4
Towns/Cities:
Berkshire County: Adams, Alford, Becket, Cheshire, Clarksburg, Dalton, Egremont, Florida, Great Barrington, Hancock, Hinsdale, Lanesborough, Lee, Lenox, Monterey, Mount Washington, New Ashford, New Marlborough, North Adams, Otis, Peru, Pittsfield, Richmond, Sandisfield, Savoy, Sheffield, Stockbridge, Tyringham, Washington, West Stockbridge, Williamstown, Windsor
Franklin County: Ashfield, Bernardston, Buckland, Charlemont, Colrain, Conway, Deerfield, Erving, Greenfield, Hawley, Heath, Leverett, Leyden, Monroe, Montague, New Salem, Northfield, Orange, Rowe, Shelburne, Shutesbury, Sunderland, Warwick, Wendell, Whately
Hampden County: Blandford, Chester, Granville, Holyoke, Montgomery, Russell, Southwick, Tolland, Westfield, West Springfield
Hampshire County: Amherst, Belchertown, Chesterfield, Cummington, Easthampton, Goshen, Granby, Hadley, Hatfield, Huntington, Middlefield, Northampton, Pelham, Plainfield, Southampton, South Hadley, Ware, Westhampton, Williamsburg, Worthington
Middlesex County: Ashby, Shirley, Townsend; pt. of Ayer
Worcester County: Ashburnham, Athol, Barre, Bolton, Fitchburg, Gardner, Hardwick, Harvard, Hubbardston, Lancaster, Leominster, Lunenburg, New Braintree, Oakham, Paxton, Petersham, Phillipston, Princeton, Royalston, Rutland, Sterling, Templeton, Westminster, West Brookfield, Winchendon
Comments: This district remains by far the largest district in Massachusetts, and due to slow population growth it grows even more. Regardless, it is still dominated by liberal Berkshire towns and liberal arts colleges, especially with the addition of two ultra-liberal women’s colleges, Smith (in Northampton) and Mount Holyoke (in South Hadley). Though Olver is getting up there in age, his successor will likely be just as liberal.
District 2 (Lighter Green)
Incumbent: Richard Neal (D-SPRINGFIELD)
Demographics: 82% White, 5% Black, 0% Native American, 2% Asian, 10% Hispanic, 1% Other
Population Deviation: 0
Towns/Cities:
Bristol County: North Attleborough; pt. of Attleboro
Hampden County: Agawam, Brimfield, Chicopee, East Longmeadow, Hampden, Holland, Longmeadow, Ludlow, Monson, Palmer, Springfield, Wales, Wilbraham
Norfolk County: Bellingham, Franklin, Medway, Plainville, Wrentham
Worcester County: Auburn, Blackstone, Brookfield, Charlton, Douglas, Dudley, East Brookfield, Grafton, Hopedale, Leicester, Mendon, Milford, Millbury, Millville, Northbridge, North Brookfield, Oxford, Southbridge, Spencer, Sturbridge, Sutton, Upton, Uxbridge, Warren, Webster
Comments: I chopped off the stupid tail going up into Northampton. (Why the hell was that even there in the first place?) As a result, the district gets pushed slightly to the east and ends up in South Attleboro. No huge change, Richard Neal will still have an easy time here.
District 3 (Darker Purple)
Incumbent: James McGovern (D-WORCESTER)
Demographics: 82% White, 4% Black, 0% Native American, 5% Asian, 8% Hispanic, 1% Other
Population Deviation: -110
Towns/Cities:
Bristol County: Dighton, Easton, Mansfield, Norton, Rehoboth, Seekonk, Somerset, Swansea; pt. of Attleboro, Taunton
Middlesex County: Ashland, Framingham, Holliston, Hopkinton, Marlborough, Natick, Sherborn
Norfolk County: Foxborough, Medfield, Millis, Norfolk, Walpole
Worcester County: Berlin, Boylston, Clinton, Holden, Northborough, Shrewsbury, Southborough, Westborough, West Boylston, Worcester
Comments: No remarkable changes. McGovern’s district grabs three towns (Easton, Medfield, Walpole) from Lynch’s old district; with a combined population of around 60,000, though, they won’t form enough of a base to allow Lynch to run here. Also, grabs Framingham and Natick because the current MA-07, like MA-02, has a stupid tail.
District 4 (Red)
Incumbent: Barney Frank (D-NEWTON)
Demographics: 85% White, 4% Black, 0% Native American, 5% Asian, 5% Hispanic, 1% Other
Population Deviation: -268
Towns/Cities:
Bristol County: Acushnet, Berkley, Dartmouth, Fairhaven, Fall River, Freetown, New Bedford, Raynham, Westport; pt. of Taunton
Middlesex County: Newton
Norfolk County: Avon, Brookline, Canton, Dedham, Dover, Needham, Norwood, Sharon, Stoughton, Wellesley, Westwood
Plymouth County: Bridgewater, Middleborough, Lakeville, West Bridgewater; pt. of Brockton
Comments: Frank’s district is mostly intact, although he picks up about 170,000 of Lynch’s consistuents. Regardless, as Financial Services chairman, Frank should have no problem raising money and winning establishment support, and with the exception of some of Fall River and the aforementioned Lynch constituents, Frank has already represented this district before. He should be just fine.
District 5 (Yellow)
Incumbent: Nicola Tsongas (D-LOWELL)
Demographics: 77% White, 2% Black, 0% Native American, 8% Asian, 13% Hispanic, 1% Other
Population Deviation: +149
Towns/Cities:
Essex County: Andover, Lawrence, Methuen, North Andover; pt. of Haverhill
Middlesex County: Acton, Bedford, Billerica, Boxborough, Burlington, Carlisle, Chelmsford, Concord, Dracut, Dunstable, Groton, Hudson, Lexington, Lincoln, Littleton, Lowell, Maynard, Pepperell, Stow, Sudbury, Tewksbury, Tyngsborough, Wayland, Weston, Wilmington; pt. of Ayer
Comments: No notable difference.
District 6 (Darker Green)
Incumbent: John Tierney (D-SALEM)
Demographics: 87% White, 2% Black, 0% Native American, 3% Asian, 6% Hispanic, 1% Other
Population Deviation: +203
Towns/Cities:
Essex County: Amesbury, Beverly, Boxford, Danvers, Essex, Georgetown, Gloucester, Hamilton, Ipswich, Lynn, Lynnfield, Manchester-by-the-Sea, Marblehead, Merrimac, Middleton, Nahant, Newbury, Newburyport, Peabody, Rockport, Rowley, Salisbury, Saugus, Swampscott, Topsfield, Wenham, West Newbury; pt. of Haverhill
Middlesex County: Melrose, North Reading, Reading, Stoneham, Wakefield, Winchester, Woburn
Suffolk County: pt. of Revere
Comments: No notable difference.
District 7 (Gray)
Incumbents: Edward Markey (D-MALDEN), Stephen Lynch (D-BOSTON)
Demographics: 75% White, 10% Black, 0% Native American, 6% Asian, 7% Hispanic, 2% Other
Population Deviation: +68
Towns/Cities:
Middlesex County: Arlington, Belmont, Everett, Malden, Medford, Waltham, Watertown
Norfolk County: Braintree, Canton, Holbrook, Milton, Randolph; pt. of Weymouth
Plymouth County: pt. of Brockton
Suffolk County: Winthrop; pt. of Boston, Revere
Comments: The bulk of Stephen Lynch’s old district is contained in this one; in fact, the majority of this district is represented by Lynch, though. Not to fear. For one thing, as the dean of the Massachusetts delegation, Markey would be able to outraise and out-establishment Lynch in a potential primary fight. Furthermore, the parts of the district that Markey currently represents are more Democratic than the parts that Lynch currently represents, meaning Markey’s chunk of the district will cast a disproportionate share of the primary vote. Also, as noted above, the liberal vote will be united behind Markey; Lynch will be unable to win with 40% like he did in 2001. Finally, Lynch’s shenanigans on health care have alienated many of his former supporters, meaning that they won’t lift a finger for him, possibly causing him to defer a challenge to Markey in the same way he dropped out of the Senate primary. For these reasons, I think Markey could hold off a primary challenge by Lynch in this district.
District 8 (Lighter Purple)
Incumbent: Michael Capuano (D-SOMERVILLE)
Demographics: 49% White, 21% Black, 0% Native American, 10% Asian, 18% Hispanic, 2% Other
Population Deviation: +142
Towns/Cities:
Middlesex County: Cambridge, Somerville
Suffolk County: Chelsea; pt. of Boston
Comments: Little change, remains minority-majority while taking on a handful of Lynch’s constituents.
District 9 (Lighter Blue)
Incumbent: William Delahunt (D-QUINCY)
Demographics: 91% White, 2% Black, 0% Native American, 4% Asian, 2% Hispanic, 1% Other
Population Deviation: -185
Towns/Cities:
Barnstable County: Barnstable, Bourne, Brewster, Chatham, Dennis, Eastham, Falmouth, Harwich, Mashpee, Orleans, Provincetown, Sandwich, Truro, Wellfleet, Yarmouth
Dukes County: Aquinnah, Chilmark, Edgartown, Gosnold, Oak Bluffs, Tisbury, West Tisbury
Nantucket County: Nantucket
Norfolk County: Cohasset, Quincy; pt. of Weymouth
Plymouth County: Abington, Carver, Duxbury, East Bridgewater, Halifax, Hanover, Hanson, Hingham, Hull, Kingston, Marion, Marshfield, Mattapoisett, Norwell, Pembroke, Plymouth, Plympton, Rockland, Scituate, Wareham, Whitman
Comments: This district takes on some more of Lynch’s old constituents to the tune of 35,000 people or so. Otherwise, no change.
Delahunt’s district needs a little shoring up; although it’s safe for him, when he retires a D+5 district could get annoying. Alternatively, he could take New Bedford. Either way, Barney Frank’s district should mop up conservative towns in Plymouth and Bristol Counties and neutralize them with ultra-liberal Newton and Brookline.
couldn’t you give Brookline to Markey, and swap in most of MA7 south of Boston to Frank?
the cruel reality of Massachusetts is that they probably should draw a map with an open seat around Cape Cod and Fall River/New Bedford, but the combination of an all Dem delegation and a Dem legislature leads to the weird map they have.
I think this map, while ambitious, suffers from severe over-confidence, especially after recent developments. In particular, the changes you make to the 10th(now the 9th) and the 2nd open them up for strong Republican challenges, especially in the case of the latter. Furthermore, Markey’s odds of survival in the new seat are not very good. Let me got through them one at a time.
2nd – This was Scott Brown’s 2nd best district and he got around 59% of the vote. Only two towns went for Coakley, Springfield by 61-37 and Northampton by 80-19. Removing Northampton pushes Brown into to the low 60s in the seat, and Neal is probably the most potentially vulnerable member of the delegation, given his votes for Stupak and the final house HCR bill. He has more or less pissed off everyone at the local level already in the district, and would face a real challenge this year if former Senate Minority Leader Brian Lees were to run against him. Cutting out the most Democratic part of the district is something that would be highly dangerous right now.
7th: What you have created is a seat polarized between conservative blue collar democrats and high-income republican towns. Everett, Malden, and Brockton are not liberal towns as much as democratic ones, look at the recent senate race for that. Medford falls into the same category minus Tufts, and Coakley out-performed there because it was her home base. Canton, Holbrook, Milton, Randolph, Winthrop and Weymouth are all traditionally Republican towns. Really, the only “liberal” area in the district is Arlington, and parts of Watertown and Waltham, though Brown won the latter, and the former is deeply split. Basically, I would not be certain of any outcome here, especially as primaries are open to independents in Massachusetts, and therefore 89% of the electorate can participate. I would expect a strong cross-over from conservative independents for him. Money frankly would tell less than identity in such a race. Could Markey win? Absolutely, but it would require running up large numbers among upscale voters.
9th: I am really trying to see anything that Martha Coakley won by much in this district and can’t see it. Most of the stuff that is added, Brown won, and generally by above his statewide numbers.
Again I am not predicting doom. But the special election should have woken people up that Massachusetts is a lot less solidly liberal than is thought, and furthermore should have raised the possibility that the post-1994 period of Republican impotence in federal races is over. This does not mean becoming a swing state, but returning to the way Massachusetts behaved in the 1980s and early 1990s, and this map would have risked handing at least two if not three districts to them if they can get back to their 1992 levels of support.