PPP (pdf) (1/27-28, likely voters)
Harry Crawford (D): 34
Don Young (R-inc): 49
Undecided: 17Generic Democrat (D): 25
Lisa Murkowski (R): 52
Undecided: 23
(MoE: ±3.7%)
2008’s Alaska at-large House race was a disappointment for Dems, with all polls projecting a pickup for former state House minority leader Ethan Berkowitz over long-time Republican Rep. Don Young, with voters seemingly having tired of his ethically questionable reputation. Young pulled it out in the end, though, as Sarah Palin on the ticket (and probably also some desire to keep at least one old-time pork-barreler in place as Alaska voted out Ted Stevens) pushed him over the top.
It doesn’t look like Dems are poised to finish the job in 2010. State Rep. Harry Crawford doesn’t seem as well-known as Berkowitz. And more importantly, Young’s reputation seems to have recovered a bit (with 43/41 approvals — not in the safety zone, but between it being dark-red Alaska and a Republican year, probably good enough). Despite his name often popping up connection with the VECO affair, it doesn’t seem like he’s in any imminent danger of being indicted, which is probably the only way he’s going to get pried out of this seat. (Although his primary against Andrew Halcro will bear watching too.)
In the Senate, Lisa Murkowski can count on an easy return to office (no surprise, as all prognosticators have had her down with Schumer and Shelby at the bottom of the vulnerability list). With no prominent Democrat interested in sticking his head on the chopping block so far, PPP just runs a Generic Democrat test, and finds even G.D. trailing by a wide margin.
RaceTracker Wiki: AK-AL
I am kind of surprised that Young doesnt have some kind of GOP primary challenger.
I know Palin went after him 2 years ago by getting Parnell to run against him.
I really though someone would take a strong shot at him in the primary.
I know he made noises about the NC senate race because of his strong numbers against Richard Burr, so if he switched to Alaska he would probably field accusations of carpetbagging.
For awhile there it looked like the state was bound to be the next Ohio, until Palin was put on the ticket. Sure you can pass a lot of what happened there in ’08 off as a Palin bounce, but still, the state seems to have taken an incredibly sharp turn to the right even has Palin’s numbers there have crashed.
Ted Stevens proved that a Republican has to be indicted and convicted in order to be defeated, and then only in a great year for Democrats.