FL-Sen/Gov: A Charlie Sandwich as an Indie, but He Leads Gov Primary & General

Fabrizio, McLaughlin & Associates (R) (PDF) for a “private client” (1/27-28, likely voters, no trendlines):

Marco Rubio (R): 44

Charlie Crist (R): 30

Undecided: 25

(MoE: ±5.6%)

Charlie Crist (R): 47

Kendrick Meek (D): 29

Undecided: 24

Charlie Crist (R): 49

Maurice Ferre (D): 27

Undecided: 27

Marco Rubio (R): 42

Kendrick Meek (D): 30

Undecided: 28

Marco Rubio (R): 43

Maurice Ferre (D): 27

Undecided: 29

Kendrick Meek (D): 24

Marco Rubio (R): 31

Charlie Crist (I): 26

Undecided: 19

Maurice Ferre (D): 19

Marco Rubio (R): 32

Charlie Crist (I): 29

Undecided: 20

(MoE: ±3.5%)

Crisitunity teased this poll earlier, but now we have the full memo. The primary numbers can’t be seen as terribly surprising at this point, and the “Crist-as-indie” scenario is not too far off R2K’s test of this matchup. They had Crist 32, Meek 31, and Rubio 27, while here, Charlie is the man-in-the-middle. One obvious option this pollsters didn’t test was Crist running as a Dem. Who knows what axe Fabrizio’s mysterious client has to grind, but recall that R2K showed Crist (D) beating Rubio (R) by a healthy 45-34 margin. If you’re trying to ease Crist out of the Senate race, those are numbers you probably don’t want to flash.

Now, why would I suggest that this incognito polling sugar daddy would want to do something like that? Well, take a look at the rest of the nums FMA published:

Charlie Crist (R): 39

Bill McCollum (R): 31

Paula Dockery (R): 4

Undecided: 25

(MoE: ±5.6%)

Alex Sink (D): 31

Charlie Crist (R): 48

Undecided: 22

Alex Sink (D): 32

Bill McCollum (R): 41

Undecided: 27

(MoE: ±3.5%)

Charlie Crist abandoned a gubernatorial election bid all the way back in May of last year, yet here we have poll numbers testing him in the gubernatorial race! What gives? Well, the polling memo is a bit heavy-handed about its intentions, with statements like: “The only GOP Primary Crist appears to be able to win this year is the Gubernatorial primary where he leads Bill McCollum by several points and performs far better across the board.” Hey, that’s probably true! But Charlie Crist’s advisors can read the numbers as well as anyone, so a line like that has to be for media consumption – i.e., you’re hoping that the tradmed will spin this as “Crist should run for a second term as governor.”

Maybe good ol’ Charlie has ruled it out. But if he doesn’t want to leave the GOP, he ought to be thinking about it.