PPP (pdf) (1/29-31, likely voters, 8/21-24 in parentheses)
Blanche Lincoln (D-inc): 33
John Boozman (R): 56
Undecided: 11Blanche Lincoln (D-inc): 35 (40)
Gilbert Baker (R): 50 (42)
Undecided: 15 (18)Bill Halter (D): 30
John Boozman (R): 53
Undecided: 17Bill Halter (D): 34
Gilbert Baker (R): 45
Undecided: 21Wesley Clark (D): 36
John Boozman (R): 51
Undecided: 13Wesley Clark (D): 39
Gilbert Baker (R): 45
Undecided: 16Mike Ross (D): 37
John Boozman (R): 48
Undecided: 15Mike Ross (D): 39
Gilbert Baker (R): 39
Undecided: 22Mike Beebe (D): 43
John Boozman (R): 44
Undecided: 13Mike Beebe (D): 46
Gilbert Baker (R): 38
Undecided: 15
(MoE: ±3.4%)
Looks like Blanche Lincoln picked the wrong year to be a Democrat in Arkansas. Basically, Blanche Lincoln has become something of a Generic Congressional Democrat to the Arkansas electorate: 55% think that Congressional Democrats are too liberal (compared with 12% too conservative and 32% about right), and a very similar 52% think Lincoln is too liberal (with 14% too conservative and 28% about right). Clocking in at 27/62 approvals, she loses badly not only to the sort-of-known Rep. John Boozman (32/25 favorables) — who’s currently in a “I’m running but I’m not running yet” limbo — but the barely-known state Sen. Gilbert Baker (9/16, with 75% not sure).
Substitute Democrats in the race fare little better, in case Lincoln gets the message and opts for a nice health insurance industry lobbyist job instead. The problem isn’t one of personalities (seeing as Dems have a strong bench here, including a freakin’ war hero) but the statewide brand, or more specifically, the state’s perception of the national party. This is best seen with the puzzling case of Gov. Mike Beebe, here with a 59/22 approval (not astounding, but probably still one of the best among all governors) but with a walking-on-water 82/9 in a different poll last month. Even Beebe, easily the most popular man in Arkansas, still loses to Boozman and is the only Dem to get past unknown Baker. Highly suggestive that Arkansas is happy to keep its Dems in-state, but currently very unenthused about sending them to the Senate. (See also conspiracy‘s diary.)
Rasmussen (2-1, likely voters, 1/5 in parentheses)
Blanche Lincoln (D-inc): 35
John Boozman (R): 54
Some other: 4
Not sure: 7Blanche Lincoln (D-inc): 33 (39)
Gilbert Baker (R): 52 (51)
Some other: 6 (3)
Not sure: 8 (7)Blanche Lincoln (D-inc): 35 (39)
Kim Hendren (R): 51 (47)
Some other: 7 (4)
Not sure: 7 (10)Blanche Lincoln (D-inc): 34 (38)
Curtis Coleman (R): 50 (48)
Some other: 7 (4)
Not sure: 9 (9)Blanche Lincoln (D-inc): 36 (38)
Tom Cox (R): 50 (48)
Some other: 6 (5)
Not sure: 9 (9)
(MoE: ±4.5%)
It’s not every day that you see Rasmussen having a more optimistic view of a race than PPP, although here it may simply be a less catastrophic view. Boozman here leads by a mere 19. More alarming here, perhaps, are the trendlines on the races against the miscellaneous Republican parts and pieces here: they aren’t gaining ground so much as Lincoln is further losing ground, sinking down into the mid-30s regardless of opponent.
RaceTracker Wiki: AR-Sen
The best bet looks like Mike Ross but I doubt such a candidacy would go down too well. House seat loss, HCR etc.
Those crosstabs are really weird-especially when you look at the number of people who don’t know these candidates and at Beebe’s numbers in it. That’s not to say Lincoln is in trouble, but there is something very funny about this one.
The environment could very well improve, and an outside Washington candidate like Halter would have a better chance. Lincoln is done no matter what happens in the next nine months.
…you’d think at least he might have a lead with his high name recognition and sky high approval numbers.
However I still think a substitute Democrat has more of a chance given just how high Lincoln’s negatives are. Someone else will have more potential for an upward projectary and to build their poll numbers even if they start at a lower point than she is now.
Of course a substitution will just move this race from a sure loser to a probably loser. But in a year like this it’s always best to ride your strongest horse because you never know what will happen.
or the national mood shifts, it looks like lincoln’s our Mike DeWine. like him, she’s somewhat moderate, but in a state whose ideology is moving away from her, and she just isn’t well percieved by either side of the aisel.
He is running. He’ll announce Saturday. The Headline isn’t correct.
This is the best combination for 2010, is so obvious looking the results.
Democratic recruiters, work hard about it!
but it would be better for the Democratic Party if Lincoln steps down. Then we have at least a chance of holding the seat. Ditto Nevada.
if this poll will shut up all of those Halter pushers.
for abandoning Lincoln to her own devices, or simply not contesting this seat at all.
This is the very last seat I’d want to spend national money on. We could pour $10 million or more here and Boozman would still win comfortably, even if Clark or Ross were the Dem nominee. What’s more, Boozman wouldn’t even have to break a financial sweat to win it. Spending money on a seat like this is throwing it away.
If we’re going to spend on long-shot races, I’d rather slap Richard Burr around a bit, or pressure Reid to withdraw in favor of Ross Miller and run ad blitzes against Krolicki’s ethics peccadilloes, or even fund Melancon against Vitter. Those seats are all at least theoretically winnable, especially given the obvious weaknesses of Krolicki, Burr, and Vitter. AR-Sen is not. What has happened is that this has become a deep red state so quickly that it still has blue Senators in it. Those Senators, Pryor two, are simply dead in the water. We might as well blow a whole bunch of money on Kansas — it’s just a waste of our financial resources.
I’m not abandoning the fifty-state strategy, honest. What I’m suggesting is that there’s a lot more headway to be made this cycle by staying on the offense against vulnerable GOP incumbents than by defending indefensible candidates like Reid and Lincoln. I could see us losing eight incumbents this year and still only being down four seats, but it’s never going to happen if we try to make firewalls out of people like Lincoln. We need some realism from the national office about how the demographics have changed, and fast.
Not that he would run 1) as it would be a step down from President to Senate 2) he probably wouldn’t have enough time to satisify the residency requirements 3) his move to New York wouldn’t look very good and 4) having his wife work for Obama probably wouldn’t help. But I’d like to see what a Clinton matchup would look like.