Illinois Primaries Prediction Thread

While we’re sitting around waiting for polls to close in Illinois (closing time is 7 pm Central, meaning 8 pm Eastern and 5 pm Pacific), let’s turn the floor open to predictions for tonight. Can David Hoffman pull off the upset against Alexi Giannoulias in the Senate primary? Can Dan Hynes complete his late surge against Pat Quinn in the Democratic gubernatorial primary? Can any of the hapless Republicans in the gubernatorial primary crack 20% of the vote? What the heck is going to happen in the Cook County Board President race? To get your bearings on all these races and more (IL-08, IL-10, IL-11, IL-14), please check out DavidNYC‘s preview from this weekend.

Two other items of note tonight that you also might want to keep an eye on:

• There are also primaries in the special election in FL-19 to fill the vacancy left by Rep. Robert Wexler’s resignation, although they look devoid of drama. (Polls close at 8 pm Eastern.)

• Tonight is the first night of Minnesota’s byzantine party nominating process, starting with precinct-level caucusing. The process will wend its way through legislative district and county-level conventions, building its way up to statewide nominating conventions in April. Tonight’s caucus results, plus tonight’s informal straw polls in the governor’s race, should at least give some preliminary clues where we’re headed in Minnesota.  

30 thoughts on “Illinois Primaries Prediction Thread”

  1. Giannoulias edges out Hoffman with around 40%.

    Hynes scores 54-57% against Quinn. Lieutenant Governor is ??. I voted for Art Turner, but expect the suburbs to go for Link and “downstate” for Boland.

    Cook County Board President finishes Preckwinkle-Brown-O’Brien with Stroger in dead last, Preckwinkle gets 35-40%. Also hoping Joe Berrios gets his ass handed to him for Cook County Assessor, I’m pulling for Figueroa.

    I think McKenna ekes by in the GOP primary, even though he’s been getting blasted on TV by everyone, espcially Kirk Dillard (that I’ve been seeing, anyway). Kirk cruises with a strong majority for Senate.

    Hoping Raja Krishnamoorthi wins Comptroller and Robin Kelly for treasurer; no idea how those races will actually shake out.

    Results here for all races.

  2. IL-Sen: Giannoulias by a better-than-expected margin.  Jackson’s support craters and bleeds to Giannoulias.  Mark Kirk wins convincingly, but Hughes cracks 20%.

    IL-Gov: Hynes beats Quinn by 5 or so.  For the Republicans, it’s McKenna, Dillard, Ryan, in that order.  Dillard would have won if he hadn’t suspended his campaign a couple days ago because his father was ill.

    Cook County Board President: Brown def. Preckwinkle by a slim margin after Sroger supporters break late for the machine candidate.  O’Brien’s strong support among white progressives dooms Preckwinkle.

    IL-10: Seals and Coulson win their primaries, giving us the least favorable matchup.  However, I think Seals might still win in November.

    IL-14: Hastert def. Hultgren and goes on to win in November.

    FL-19: Ted Deutch wins (duh!).

    MN-Gov: Marty Seifert is going to be the GOP nominee.  For the Dems, I think Dayton and Kelliher are peaking, while Entenza and Rybak are losing ground.  This sets up a Dayton-Kelliher matchup in the primary (Kelliher wins the caucus, Dayton and Entenza continue to the primary, but Entenza is fatally weakened by a poor caucus showing) with Kelliher favored for the nom.  I think this is unfortunate, as I see Rybak as the only candidate who can make the pickup a sure thing, but Kelliher’s probably the best second choice.

  4. Alexi Giannoulias – 41%

    David Hoffman – 35%

    Cheryle Jackson – 19%

    Others – 5%

    Mark Kirk – 77%

    Others – 23%

    ——————–

    Dan Hynes – 53%

    Pat Quinn – 47%

    Jim Ryan – 28%

    Andy McKenna – 20%

    Adam Andrzejewski – 16%

    Bill Brady – 15%

    Kirk Dillard – 14%

    Dan Proft – 7%

  5. Mark Kirk cruises easily since the teabaggers did not turn out.

    IL Senate Primary:

    Alexi 35%

    Hoffman 30%

    Jackson 25%

    Jackson gets a boost from African American turnout in Chicago

    IL Gov

    Hynes 48%

    Quinn 42%

  6. Alexi- 45%

    Hoffman- 28%

    Jackson- 27%

    Kirk- 65%

    Hughes- 20%

    Everyone else- 15%

    Hynes- 52%

    Quinn- 48%

    Dillard- 27%

    Ryan- 23%

    McKenna- 21%

    Brady- 19%

    Andrzejewski- 9%

    Other- 1%

    Hamos- 53%

    Seals- 47%

    Coulson- 37%

    Dold- 34%

    Green-29%

    Hastert- 55%

    Hultgren- 45%

    Preckwinkle- 33%

    O’Brien- 31%

    Brown- 28%

    Stroger- 18%

    Deutch- 80%

    Graber- 20%

  7. Gov:

    Hynes – 53

    Quinn – 47

    McKenna – 27

    Dillard – 22

    Ryan – 20

    Brady – 14

    Andrewjzklsejysky – 12

    Proft – 5

    Sen:

    Alexi – 39

    Hoffman – 32

    Jackson – 25

    Other – 3

    Kirk – 76

    Hughes – 21

    Other – 3

    10th CD:

    Dan Seals – 52

    Julie Hamos – 37

    Elliot Richardson – 11

    Bob Dold – 36

    Beth Coulson – 32

    Dick Green – 27

    Other – 5

    14th CD:

    Ethan Hastert – 65

    Randy Hultgren – 35

  8. Alexi Giannoulias 39

    Cheryle Jackson – 30

    David Hoffman – 28

    Others 3

    I think Giannoulias will survive, although it will be close, and I think that Jackson will do better than most people think, she will get the black vote, and do well with woman.  

    Mark Kirk 75

    Others 25

    Kirk is a sure thing, although I hope we see some mad tea baggers come November. 🙂

    Pat Quinn 52

    Dan Hynes 47

    Others 1

    I think that if the primary was held a week or two from now Hynes would win it, but honestly I think Quinn will survive, although it will be very close, and I could easily be wrong.

    Kirk Dillard 26

    Jim Ryan 23

    Andy McKenna 20

    Bill Brady 15

    Adam Andrzejewski 11

    Dan Proft 5

    I think that Ryan, McKenna, Brady, Andrzejewski, and Proft will split the conservative vote and give it to Dillard.

    If I get one prediction right I will be happy 🙂  

  10. Gov-D: Hynes 51%–Quinn 49%

    Gov-R: McKenna 25%–Dillard 24%–Adam A 20%–Ryan 12%–Proft 10%–Brady 9%

    Sen-D: Alexi G. 41%–Hoffman 35%–Jackson 21%

    Sen-R: Kirk 59%–Hughes 20%

    10 CD-D: Hamos 51%–Seals 45%

    10 CD-R: Dold 40%–Coulson 34%–Green 15%

  11. IL-Sen: Alexi/Kirk win easily

    IL-Gov: Quinn narrowly edges Hynes, Dillard wins on the GOP side

    IL-10: Seals and Coulson win

    IL-14: Hastert wins

    FL-19: Deutch wins

  12. Senate:

    Giannoulias 43%

    Hoffman 35%

    Jackson 22%

    (By the way, why is everyone calling Giannoulias by his first name anyways, is it because it’s too hard to spell Giannoulias? :P)

    Kirk 59%

    Hughes 41%

    This is basically an out-of-nowhere prediction, but I have a sneaking suspicion that Kirk will do a lot worse than people think. I’m probably wrong on this, but a completely random prediction never hurt anyone, now did it? 😀

    Governor:

    Quinn 51%

    Hynes 49%

    I’m with those who think that Hyne’s surge comes too late, and that Quinn will barely eek out a victory. I have no problem admiting that I could be very wrong here!

    (I’m not even going to try to predict the cluster-fuck that is the Republican gubernatorial primary)

    House:

    Hamos 54%

    Seals 46%

    I think that Seals’s past two losses to Mark Kirk are going make him a lot less attractive to Democratic primary voters, and that Hamos’s huge cash advantage will give her what she needs to win.

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