Once again I want to thank everyone for their insight on creating a 2010 mid-term election model. I value both the positive feedback and the constructive criticism. I need your input, so please do not hold back!
Results
My previous model predicted that the Democrats would lose 3 seats in the Senate and 32 seats in the House. I asked SSP nation to provide feedback, and here are the results:
72.73% voted that my model for the House is realistic.
36.37% voted my model for the Senate is realistic.
Analysis
When I first created this model, I felt that it was realistic that the Dems would lose 32 seats in the House, but I felt that losing 3 seats in the Senate was, should we say, optimistic. After reviewing the comments from my previous diary, I thought that rdw72777 made a beautiful point that my model was probably skewed too much on data from the 1982 election. After tinkering with the model, I felt that we should probably lose 4 or 5 seats in the Senate IF we could compare the 2010 mid-terms to historical data.
New Predictions
Based on the current mood of the United States, I predict the Democrats will lose 30-35 seats in the House and 4-5 seats in the Senate.
Where will the Dems lose 4-5 (net) Senate seats?
This is where we have some fun. Which seats will switch hands? Here is in order the seats that I think will switch hands between parties (with aggregate tally (net) of seats changing hands):
(1) ND. I’d say the Republicans have a 95+% chance of winning this seat. Republicans +1.
(2) AR. Democrats seem to be toxic to this state. Boozman may be the next Arkansas Senator. Republicans +2.
(3) NV. Seems like all incumbents, regardless of party, are in trouble. Reid’s problems are magnified based on his stature and the current environment. Republicans +3.
(4) DE. Coons has potential: Castle is established. Delaware is a blue state, but Castle has been around for a long time. Leans Republican. Republicans +4.
(5) CO. Bennet has not impressed Colorado to date. He’s also not entrenched, and I think the Republicans smell blood. Slight edge to the Republicans. Republicans +5.
(6) MO. Blunt is not an attractive candidate while Carnahan has loads of potential. The state is purple, with a bit more red than blue in the mix. Slightest edge to the Democrats. Republicans +4.
(7) PA. Sestak vs. Specter. Sestak vs. Toomey. Specter vs. Toomey. This is a true political triangle. If the Democratic nominee isn’t bloodied too bad from the primary, I see the Dems holding control. If it’s a nasty primary, I see Toomey defeating either candidate. Tossup at best.
(8) OH. Democrats had a great chance of picking this seat up IF the election was held 6-8 months ago. Not the case now. Tossup at best.
(9) NH. Ditto OH. Tossup.
(10) IL. Kirk is the nominee, but I wonder if his support is somewhat thin. His primary victory was unimpressive. Alexi G. is a good candidate. Leans Dem.
(11) KY. If Paul is the nominee, I think the Dems could potentially pick up this seat. However, KY seems somewhat toxic to the Dems. Leans Republican.
(12) IN. Bayh doesn’t make many of us happy, but he appears popular in Indiana. Coats is a retread, and I retreads have a history of underperforming the expectations of their party. Leans Dem.
(13) NC. For those who actually who know about Burr, he is not well liked in North Carolina. However, the Dems didn’t attract a great candidate like Roy Cooper. Marshall would make a good candidate, but she’s not well known for someone who has been SoS for 13 years. Leans/Likely Republican.
(14) FL. Rubio will most likely win the Republican nomination. If the Dems have a chance of picking this seat up, their best bet is for Crist to pull a switcheroo. It might happen. At this point, Likely Republican.
I don’t see any other seat that’s really worth mentioning. This might change if NY got a credible Republican to go head-to-head with Gillibrand. Hasn’t happened yet. I’m also keeping an eye out on Iowa. Grassley’s popularity has waned from his previous high marks.
Stay tuned for my House predictions. I value all input, no matter if it’s critical or positive, so please don’t hold back!
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But i am less optimistic abour Democratic chances in MO, which still went for McCain in 2008, albeit – very narrowly, OH, with rather divisive Democratic primary, and, after observing Tuesday election and with possible law problems for Democratic nominee, in Illinois. So my “headcount” gives Republicans about 1 additional seat for general +5-6
The party with the wind at it’s back wins the close ones. I have the Republicans at +7 (ND, AR, NV, DE, CO, PA, IL) with the Democrats picking up nothing. I think independents and moderate Democrats will find Kirk a more attractive candidate than Alex G. Carnahan is a great candidate but I think the political climate with work against her in the end.