StephenCLE’s 2010 House Predictions – Part 2

Predictions Part 2 – The Mid-Atlantic

The Mid-Atlantic is a mostly democratic region, but it’s not as impenetrable as the Northeast.  There are even parts of it that are really quite Republican in nature, especially in Pennsylvania.  There are quite a few competitive seats in this region too, moreso than in the Northeast.  

New Jersey-1 – Robert Andrews/Democrat – We start here in Philadelphia’s eastern suburbs, and where Andrews is well entrenched in a solidly democratic district.  Nothing to worry about for him.

District PVI – D+12

Stephen’s Rating – Solid D

Prediction – Solid Dem Hold

New Jersey-2 – Frank Lobiondo/Republican – Having vacationed many a year on the south jersey coast, it annoys me that Lobiondo continues to skate in a D-leaning seat.  He won by 20% over David Kurkowski in 2008 while Obama beat McCain by 9 in this south jersey district.  Given that, and the fact that the Dems haven’t produced a top tier challenger, it’s doubtful Lobiondo is going anywhere.  It would’ve been nice if incoming governor Chris Christie picked him for Lt. Gov, which would’ve opened the seat up.

District PVI – D+1

Stephen’s Rating – Solid R

Prediction – Solid Rep Hold

New Jersey-3 – John Adler/Democrat – Adler picked this seat up in 2008 with a narrow 4% victory over Chris Myers.  He was a great fundraiser last cycle, allowing him to outspend Myers nearly 2-1, and he’s raised 1.4 million plus so far this cycle.  He caught a break when state senator Chris Connors didn’t run, but he still has to deal with NFL offensive tackle John Runyan.  A divisive primary is still possible though as local Republican committees in the 3rd are not on good terms with one another.  Ultimately I’m a bit skeptical of Republican chances here since rich athletes are often not well received by voters, though that’s not a hard and fast rule.  

District PVI – R+1

Stephen’s Rating – Leans D

Prediction – Moderate Dem Hold

New Jersey-4 – Christopher Smith/Republican – What’s happened in the 4th?  After Al Gore carried the district in 2000, the district has since trended Republican.  McCain won by 5% over Obama and the entrenched Christopher won by 34%.  Sorry, this one ain’t happening.

District PVI – R+6

Stephen’s Rating – Solid R

Prediction – Solid Rep Hold

New Jersey-5 – Scott Garrett/Republican – The 5th district is a traditional Republican stronghold in the north of the state, and Garrett’s 12% win in 2008 largely mirrored the presidential vote there.  Though he’s been around since 2002 I don’t think of him as entrenched, but he’s not a liability either, and I don’t see a first or second tier democrat out there to make this a race.

District PVI – R+7

Stephen’s Rating – Solid R

Prediction – Solid Rep Hold

New Jersey-6 – Frank Pallone/Democrat – The hideously shaped 6th, which runs from inland around Sandy Hook southward along the coast, is very Democratic.  It also has a well entrenched incumbent in Pallone.

District PVI – D+8

Stephen’s Rating – Solid D

Prediction – Solid Dem Hold

New Jersey-7 – Leonard Lance/Republican – Lance’s 8-point win in 2008 was a bit of a shock, as he had won by only 1 point in 2006.  Lance has been a moderate, independent voice for the most part, a rarity amongst house republicans.  The Democrats do have several options here.  Fanwood mayor Colleen Mahr is a possible candidate, and businessman Ed Potosnak is in.  2006/8 candidate Linda Stender might be back for another round as well.  Lance’s ability to straddle the middle effectively will make him a tough out though, no matter who wins the Dem primary.

District PVI – R+3

Stephen’s Rating  – Likely R

Prediction – Strong Rep Hold

New Jersey-8 – Bill Pascrell/Democratic – Heading inward toward the NYC suburbs now, Pascrell has been around quite a while and has a nice democratic district.  And so far, he has no confirmed opposition either.  

District PVI – D+10

Stephen’s Rating – Solid D

Prediction – Solid Dem Hold

New Jersey-9 – Steven Rothman/Democratic – This is another Dem-leaning district with a long standing incumbent.  A Republican challenge is probably not going to amount to much here.

District PVI – D+9

Stephen’s Rating – Solid D

Prediction – Solid Dem Hold

New Jersey-10 – Donald Payne/Democratic – This is the most Democratic district in New Jersey, and one of the most Democratic in the nation.  No republican can beat these odds.

District PVI – D+33

Stephen’s Rating – Solid D

Prediction – Solid Dem Hold

New Jersey-11 – Rodney Frelinghuysen/Republican – This is a mostly Republican district in the state’s northwest, and so far, the Democrats don’t even have a candidate against Frelinghuysen.  It’d be an uphill battle for sure against the entrenched incumbent.

District PVI – R+7

Stephen’s Rating – Solid R

Prediction – Solid Rep Hold

New Jersey-12 – Rush Holt/Democratic – Another snake-like district here, which seems like a majority of districts in New Jersey.  Holt is pretty well entrenched, but his district isn’t overly democratic.  The republicans have three challengers thus far, and the most notable of them is Michael Halfacre.  I’m not sure that any of these Repubs can make this a race, but given the PVI and the national environment, I can’t completely rule out the possibility.

District PVI – D+5

Stephen’s Rating – Likely D

Prediction – Solid Dem Hold

New Jersey-13 – Albio Sires/Democratic – This district isn’t quite as blue as NJ-10, but honestly, you’d need a cash in the freezer type of scandal to get a republican victory here.  

District PVI – D+21

Stephen’s Rating – Solid D

Prediction – Solid Dem Hold

Delaware-1 – Open/Republican – Lordy lordy, now isn’t this a sight?  Mike Castle’s departure here has opened up Delaware’s lone House seat, and with Lt Governor John Carney in the race, this seems like a slam dunk for the Democrats.  The only confirmed Repub in the race is insurance salesman Fred Cullis.  While the national environment and the possible pull of Castle at the top of the ticket in the Senate race prevents me from moving this to lock status, it’d be very difficult for the Repubs to hold.

District PVI – D+7

Stephen’s Rating – Likely D

Prediction – Strong Dem Pickup (1st overall)

Total Pickup Counter – Rep +2

Maryland-1 – Frank Kratovil/Democratic – Kratovil pulled an upset here in the first district in 2008 after Andy Harris knocked out incumbent Wayne Gilchrest in the primary.  The win total was less than 1%, in a district that went hard for McCain 58-40.  Harris is back, but he won’t have the primary for himself, as there are 3 other Repubs in the race.  Kratovil has raised 1.1 million so far, while Harris has topped 600k thus far, so unless Harris gets torpedoed, this is going to be knock-down drag out political warfare.  In the end, I think this district is simply too conservative for Kratovil.  Harris may not be able to rejoice even if he does win though, MD-1 is bound to become much more democratic in redistricting.

District PVI – R+13

Stephen’s Rating – Toss Up

Prediction – Weak Rep Pickup (4th overall)

Total Pickup Counter – Rep +3

Maryland-2 – C.A. Ruppersberger/Democratic – This district, which encompasses the northwestern shore of the Chesapeake Bay, is fairly democratic.  Ruppersberger won by 43% in 2008 and is well entrenched.

District PVI – D+7

Stephen’s Rating – Solid D

Prediction – Solid Dem Hold

Maryland-3 – John Sarbanes/Democratic – This is a hideously gerrymandered district, one of the worst in the nation, which spreads from Annapolis to Baltimore.  Sarbanes is fairly well entrenched here even though he’s only a sophomore.  Obama won by 20% here, so any Republican would face a very uphill battle.

District PVI – D+6

Stephen’s Rating – Solid D

Prediction – Solid Dem Hold

Maryland-4 – Donna Edwards/Democratic – This is the most democratic district in Maryland, and one of the most democratic in the nation, consisting of Washington D.C. suburbs mostly.  Nothing of interest to see here.

District PVI – D+31

Stephen’s Rating – Solid D

Prediction – Solid Dem Hold

Maryland-5 – Steny Hoyer/Democratic – This southern Maryland district is, like many others in the state, reliably democratic.  Hoyer is extremely well entrenched, as he hasn’t had a re-election with under 60% in over a decade.

District PVI – D+11

Stephen’s Rating – Solid D

Prediction – Solid Dem Hold

Maryland-6 – Roscoe Bartlett/Republican – This district, which encompasses the mountainous west of the crab state, is a very conservative stronghold within a liberal state.  Bartlett, who’s well entrenched but was held under 60% in 2008, shouldn’t have to sweat too much, this year.  2012 could be another matter as his district is sure to become much more democratic in redistricting.

District PVI – R+13

Stephen’s Rating – Solid R

Prediction – Solid Rep Hold

Maryland-7 – Elijah Cummings/Democrat – This Baltimore-based district is extremely democratic, and as such should be an easy hold for Cummings.  

District PVI – D+25

Stephen’s Rating – Solid D

Prediction – Solid Dem Hold

Maryland-8 – Chris Van Hollen/Democrat – The head of the DCCC, Van Hollen’s district is very safe, which should allow him a lot of leeway to help out other democrats in their re-elections.  As far as I know he is running unopposed thus far.

District PVI – D+21

Stephen’s Rating – Solid D

Prediction – Solid Dem Hold

District of Columbia-1 – Open/Independent – It’s a travesty that Washington D.C gets no representation in Congress.  Ridiculous.  

Pennsylvania-1 – Robert Brady/Democrat – We now move into what could be the most interesting state in the nation for House elections in 2010.  It’s just that the excitement won’t be here, as this Philadelphia-based district is one of the most democratic districts in the country.

District PVI – D+35

Stephen’s Rating – Solid D

Prediction – Solid Dem Hold

Pennsylvania-2 – Chaka Fattah/Democrat – One more major Democratic stronghold to go, this one also in Philadelphia.  Fattah won’t be up late at night worrying about his re-election, as this is the 4th most democratic district in the country.

District PVI – D+38

Stephen’s Rating – Solid D

Prediction – Solid Dem Hold

Pennsylvania-3 – Kathy Dahlkemper/Democrat – Dahlkemper scored a big win in 2008, defeating 7-term incumbent Phil English by 3%.  The presidential vote here was a virtually tie, but the district usually is slightly republican in nature.  The bad thing for the Repubs is that they don’t have any great options here, their primary is a free-for-all.  Businessman Paul Huber has assumed the fundraising lead on the R side, as he’s come down with almost 300k so far, but that pales in comparison to Dahlkemper’s 900k.  Ultimately, I think it’s very telling to take out a 7-term congressman on your first run for elected office.  Dahlkemper could be a rising star in the Democratic Party.

District PVI – R+3

Stephen’s Rating – Likely D

Prediction – Strong Dem Hold

Pennsylvania-4 – Jason Altmire/Democrat – Altmire was one of the Democrats in the class of 2006, when he defeated 3-term incumbent Melissa Hart.  Altmire beat Hart again in the 2008 rematch by 12% even though Obama struggled, losing by 11% to McCain.  Altmire has a record of voting independently in the House, as he has defected 20% of the time on key votes according to CQ.  The Republicans have a good shot here, but like in PA-3, they’ve struggled in recruitment a bit.  Former US Attorney Mary Beth Buchanan and former DHS employee Keith Rothfus are the primary Repub contenders.  Altmire has been on a fundraising tear, having raised 1.27 million thus far.  Like Dahlkemper, Altmire has the look of an up and comer in the democratic caucus.

District PVI – R+6

Stephen’s Rating – Likely D

Prediction – Strong Dem Hold

Pennsylvania-5 – Glenn Thompson/Republican – The 5th, which consists of north-central Pennsylvania, is mostly Republican territory.  Thompson won an open seat race in 2008 by 16% over Democrat Mark McCracken and has fundraised well this cycle.  So far the Democrats have not fielded a candidate either.

District PVI – R+9

Stephen’s Rating – Solid R

Prediction – Solid Rep Hold

Pennsylvania-6 – Jim Gerlach/Republican – This district, which encompasses the western portion of the Philadelphia metroplex, is a big partisan battleground that has trended democratic.  Gerlach had a tough re-election which he won by 4% over little known Bob Roggio.  Obama won here by 17% in 2008, which might explain why Gerlach decided to go for the governorship early this cycle before coming back to the House race.  Gerlach is facing a primary challenge largely because of his earlier exit, the prominent challenge is from businessman Steven Welch.  The Democrats have two prominent candidates here, physician Manan Trivedi and editorial writer Doug Pike.  Pike has been a fundraising bull, raising 1.36 million thus far to Gerlach’s 360k, which could blunt Gerlach’s advantage of incumbency if that matchup occurs.  Very difficult district to predict, but the Dems are in great shape.

District PVI – D+4

Stephen’s Rating – Toss Up

Prediction – Weak Dem Pickup (2nd overall)

Total Pickup Counter – Rep +2

Pennsylvania-7 – Open/Democratic – An open seat in a partisan battleground is always bad news for the incumbent party, and when Joe Sestak bolted to face Arlen Specter in the Dem Senate primary, that happened here.   Amazingly, both fields appear to have cleared here.  The Republicans got their first choice of candidates, former county district attorney and federal prosecutor Patrick Meehan.  On the Democratic side, state representative Bryan Lentz is the man.  Meehan so far has raised 791k, and Lentz has raised 515k.  One of the problems Meehan might face here is a candidacy from independent conservative Jim Schneller, who might divert votes away from Meehan in a close race.  Regardless, this seat, like the adjoining 6th, is going to be the sight of a major partisan battle.

District PVI – D+3

Stephen’s Rating – Toss Up

Prediction – Weak Dem Hold

Pennsylvania-8 – Patrick Murphy/Democratic – This Bucks County based seat in Philadelphia’s northern suburbs has trended democratic in recent years.  Patrick Murphy’s razor-thin 1% win in 2006 over Mike Fitzpatrick made him the first Iraq war veteran elected to Congress.  After a larger win in 2008, Murphy is gearing up for a rematch with Fitzpatrick, who recently declared.  The incumbent has been a great fundraiser, having raised nearly 1.5 million thus far.  It remains to be seen whether Fitzpatrick can shake off the rust, but his presence makes this a race.

District PVI – D+2

Stephen’s Rating – Leans D

Prediction – Moderate Dem Hold

Pennsylvania-9 – Bill Shuster/Republican – This district, which makes up most of south-central Pennsylvania, the part sometimes referred to as “Pennsyltucky”, is extremely Republican.  Shuster won’t have any trouble keeping his seat.

District PVI – R+17

Stephen’s Rating – Solid R

Prediction – Solid Rep Hold

Pennsylvania-10 – Chris Carney/Democrat – Chris Carney took out a scandal-tainted incumbent in 2006 to take hold of this seat, but it was his 13% win in 2008 that really turned heads.  This is a fairly reliably republican district that favored McCain 54-45 over Obama, but Carney has done a good job portraying himself as a centrist.  The best part about it is that the Republican primary field is jammed, with no clear favorite.  The NRCC is highest on former US attorney Tom Marino, but having just got in, he’ll have to make up ground in the fundraising and name ID game.  The conservatism of the 10th will help the Repub primary winner, but Carney has proven himself very capable.

District PVI – R+8

Stephen’s Rating – Leans D

Prediction – Moderate Dem Hold

Pennsylvania-11 – Paul Kanjorski/Democrat – Kanjorski was in a lot of trouble in his 2006 and 2008 re-elections, but the national tide helped keep his tenure alive.  He beat Hazleton mayor Lou Barletta by 3% in 2008, but underperformed Obama by 12 points, as the latter won by 15% over McCain.  2008 Repub candidate Barletta is back, but he faces a primary from attorney (noticing a trend here?) Chris Paige, a primary that is already becoming quite contentious.  Kanjorski is facing a primary as well, from Lackawanna County Commissioner Corey O’Brien.  Like PA-6, this district could come down to who makes it to the general election, but if it’s a Barletta-Kanjorski rematch, I don’t like our chances.

District PVI – D+4

Stephen’s Rating – Toss Up

Prediction – Moderate Rep Pickup (5th overall)

Total Pickup Counter – Rep +3

Pennsylvania-12 – Open/Democratic – Jack Murtha’s passing has rendered this seat open, but it’s far too early to discuss the possible electoral ramifications here.  Without going too far into detail, this is a locally democratic district that has started to trend rightward at the national level.  I’ll keep this in the Dem column for now.

District PVI – R+1

Stephen’s Rating – Toss Up

Prediction – Moderate Dem Hold

Pennsylvania-13 – Allyson Schwartz/Democrat – This suburban Philadelphia district, which encompasses most of Montgomery County, is reliably democratic these days.  The entrenched Schwartz shouldn’t have much of a problem here.

District PVI – D+7

Stephen’s Rating – Solid D

Prediction – Solid Dem Hold

Pennsylvania-14 – Mike Doyle/Democrat – PA-14, which encompasses the city of Pittsburgh and it’s very inner suburbs, is an extremely democratic district.  Doyle is safe.

District PVI – D+19

Stephen’s Rating – Solid D

Prediction – Solid Dem Hold

Pennsylvania-15 – Charlie Dent/Republican – The Lehigh Valley based 15th has been a long-running frustration for democrats, as they have been unable to find a good challenger for Dent, who won by 17% in 2008 even as Obama won by 13% over McCain.  But this cycle, the frustration might be over, as their #1 option, Bethlehem mayor John Callahan is in.  His entry cleared the primary field and has given democrats reason to believe they can knock off Dent, who’s either a centrist or a faux-moderate depending on which side you’re on.  So far Dent has raised 888k this cycle, and Callahan has raised 725k, though Callahan has spent much less and thus has more cash on hand.  The environment may help Dent, but regardless, this is going to be one heck of a fight.

District PVI – D+2

Stephen’s Rating – Leans R

Prediction – Moderate Rep Hold

Pennsylvania-16 – Joe Pitts/Republican – This district, which encompasses Lancaster and exurban Philly, was once hugely conservative, but is starting to trend democratic.  That being said, Joe Pitts is a fairly entrenched incumbent and should be able to hold the seat easily in 2010.  Look out though if this seat comes open later down the road, it could be in play.

District PVI – R+8

Stephen’s Rating – Solid R

Prediction – Solid Rep Hold

Pennsylvania-17 – Tim Holden/Democrat – Holden has been a thorn in the Republicans’ side since his 2002 election.  He’s been racking up fairly big margins despite the 17th’s overall conservatism.  He won by 27% in 2008 even though John McCain won the presidential vote by 3% over Obama.  Like the Dems in the 15th, the Repubs have been frustrated by their lack of recruiting here.  This cycle they are feeling a bit more upbeat due to the entry of state senator Dave Argall.  He’ll have to get by businessman Josh First and marine veteran Frank Ryan in the primary first though.  The environment and Holden’s lackluster fundraising thus far tells me that this race could be a big fight, but Holden’s past success says otherwise.  Hard to tell.  I’m going to skirt the middle of the two extremes with this pick.

District PVI – R+6

Stephen’s Rating – Likely D

Prediction – Strong Dem Hold

Pennsylvania-18 – Tim Murphy/Republican – This hideously drawn district in southwestern Pennsylvania is trending rapidly Republican, and Murphy is pretty well entrenched at this point.  In this environment he probably won’t see much of a challenge.

District PVI – R+6

Stephen’s Rating – Solid R

Solid Rep Hold

Pennsylvania-19 – Todd Platts/Republican – According to CQ, Platts might be in the running for the head job at the Government Accountability Office.  We’ll only see action here if this district opens up really, as Platts has dug himself in, and the district is very conservative in nature.

District PVI – R+12

Stephen’s Rating – Solid R

Predicition – Solid Rep Hold

Mid-Atlantic Recap – Here in the Mid-Atlantic there are plenty of seats worth watching, it’s a fun region.  Pennsylvania in particular is quite fascinating. Right now I seat 4 seats changing hands, 2 for each party, with the Repubs picking up PA-11 and MD-1, and the Dems picking up DE-1 and PA-6.  That leaves 5 total pickups for the Reps and 2 for the Dems, for a score so far of Rep +3 through two regions.  

Next stop, the Upper South…