Research 2000 for Daily Kos (2/8-10, likely voters)
Evan Bayh (D-inc): 55
Dan Coats (R): 35
Undecided: 10Evan Bayh (D-inc): 53
John Hostettler (R): 37
Undecided: 10
(MoE: ±3.2%)
Looks like the Republicans aren’t quite putting Indiana into highly competitive play the way they thought they would, with the entry of former Senator Dan Coats to the race. Coats not only trails Evan Bayh by 20, but my suspicions from yesterday were confirmed: long-forgotten establishment figure Coats doesn’t match up against Bayh as well as ex-Rep. John Hostettler — whose 12 years in the House (washed in with the wave in 1994, and washed out with the wave in 2006) revealed him as a quirky ultra-right-winger and an incompetent campaigner — does.
Dan Coats’ rollout as Senate candidate over the last week is already on track to be legendary in its badness, but I don’t think that alone can account for these numbers. Much of it may be that, after 12 years out of the Senate (and 18 years since having run for anything), nobody remembers Coats; there are genuinely middle-aged people who may have lived in Indiana their whole lives and still never had a chance to vote for Coats. Coats (38/34 approval) is actually less-known than Rep. John Hostettler (40/33), who only represented 1/9th of the state but at least had the virtue of sticking his foot in his mouth often enough to make sure he got in the news. Meanwhile, while Bayh certainly isn’t a favorite among the netroots, he’s doing just fine at home, with 61/33 approvals. (UPDATE: In an attempt to change perceptions and get some footing in Indiana, Dan Coats is taking one for the team and actually… gasp… renting a house in Indianapolis.)
RaceTracker Wiki: IN-Sen
for getting there before Rasmussen did. 😛
Three positive headlines in one day? I must be dreaming.
🙂
Bayh isn’t up 40 Points on Indies. Every other National & State Poll claims Independents abandoning Democrats yet Del Ali claimes the Democrat is up 40 Points among this Group.
No doubt Bayh is up a bit but not by 20 Points.
The Indy number is not believable.
SSP’s insinuation that Hostettler might be more competitive than Coats is pretty crazy. Hostettler is incapable of running a good campaign. Look at how he operated back when he was a Congressman in a red district. He essentially relied on the largesse of the NRCC. Coats can, at least, raise the money to compete statewide against an incumbent with a $12 million warchest.
Considering Bayh is listed as living in an accountant’s office in Indiana.
Also, its R2k, the same people who showed Coakley up 15 points a week before the election. R2k is the Democratic Rasmussen
So now we know why they haven’t released an IN poll…
Rasmussen leans slightly right, Research 2000 slightly left. Simple as that. That can’t make up for huge margins between candidates. Bayh is ahead. Period.