Thanks to everyone for particpating on my diaries regarding the 2010 mid-term elections. I’d like to recap my House predictions for everyone:
My original hypothetical 2010 election model predicted that the Democrats would lose (net) 30-35 house seats. SSP nation has provided me feedback that indicates that the Democrats would lose (net) 22-27 house seats. Although there is not a lot of difference between the two set of numbers, I decided to adjust my predictions accordingly based on SSP particpants vast knowledge regarding elections. As a result, I’ll alter my previous model and now predict that the Democrats will lose 28 house seats (net).
In part 5 of this series, SSP nation voted on how many Republican held seats will be gained by the Democrats. The average is 4.5 seats. I’ll round this number to 5, which means that I believe 33 seats will switch hands from the Democrats to the Republicans.
I want to start out with a baseline of 11 currently held Democratic seats that I think will switch hands. I ask that everyone please submit what they believe are the 11 most vulnerable Democratic seats that the GOP could win.
Tarheeman’s list of the 11 most vulnerable Democratic seats, not in any particular order:
1. LA-03
2. TN-06
3. AR-01
4. AR-02
5. TN-08
6. ID-01
7. MD-01
8. VA-05
9. KS-03
10. AL-02
11. MS-01
It’s important to note that only 3 of these seats are outside the South (ID-01, KS-03, and MD-01).
If you do not believe that these seats do not belong in this group, please let me know (a) where you would rank them and (b) what seats should replace them on this list. Based on your feedback, I’ll revise my list accordingly.
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But I think you have the Arkansas seats (depending on the candidate) and TN-8 too high. I would have VA-2, NM-2 and CO-4 in their place.
I would also add CO-04, OH-01, OH-15, and PA-03. I would be very surprised if we didn’t lose at least 3 of those 4. OH-01 in particular is already gone according to a non-Ras poll that was on SSP a couple of weeks ago, with Chabot up on Driehaus by about 24 points.
I think we’re going to have a lot of trouble outside of this list – CO-04, NM-02, OH-15, OH-01, PA-07 come to mind immediately. But here’s what I think about these:
1. LA-03 – My feeling is it’s gone. But we’ll see what shakes out when the state legislative session ends. A lot of Dem legislators in this area.
2. TN-06 – This one is gone. Republicans have strong candidates and Dems have shown nothing.
3. AR-01 – I think the Dems keep this one. Overwhelming Dem bench here. Weak Republican candidates. Beebe at the top of the ticket helps.
4. AR-02 – Same as AR-01. I suspect Wills will beat Griffin the Washington insider.
5. TN-08 – I think we win this one too. Herron is by far the strongest candidate in the field.
6. ID-01 – I suspect the Republican edge is too much for Minnick, who is a great candidate.
7. MD-01 – I think Harris beats Kratovil here.
8. VA-05 – This is the most interesting race of them all. There is a teabagger third party candidate already (I think), and there will be a lot of angry conservatives if Hurt is the nominee, and he probably will be. Don’t know what to think here. I think it will be a squeaker. I’m going to guess the Republican wins.
9. KS-03 – Lack of a Dem candidate is discouraging here. They’ve been working on it for awhile. R pickup.
10. AL-02 – A lot like ID-01. Too many Republicans to win in this environment, but Bright is a strong candidate.
11. MS-01 – This one looks tough. I don’t think McGowan will make a lot of noise in the primary after her disastrous entrance. I’d say Nunnalee narrowly, but Childers is tough.
So I have us losing 8 of these 11.
aren’t in the South, they are damn borderline.
The main one I disagree with is AL-02. I know, I know, almost everyone places it at best as a toss-up or leans GOP, but I just do not see it.
I understand the issues about the district itself:
The seat is overwhelmingly Republican, and unlike many other seats in the South, the GOP has long ruled much of the area. The GOP took control of the Congressional seat in 1964 and held it until Bright won the open seat in 2008.
Bright’s victory in 2008 occurred amid an awful split between the GOP. Love and Smith had a brutal Primary battle, and after Smith lost the Primary, she backed Bright.
However, here’s something I always mention when it comes to AL-02: Bright’s got a territorial coalition that Love did not have in 2008 and Roby does not have this cycle.
Bright’s from the Wiregrass portion of the district but served as Mayor of Montgomery, so he’s got the “best of both worlds” as a base. He can easily relate to both the rural and more urban voters.
Sure, Roby’s served on the Montgomery City Council but that’s about it, she has no ties to the Wiregrass.
I could easily be overstating the importance of area ties, but Bright never forgot where he came from and the voters in those rural areas remember that. Besides the geographical advantage, Bright’s voting record and fundraising are very good.
Bright’s got a voting record fit for the district, not the national Democratic Party. He’s a member of the Blue Dog Coalition, pro-gun, pro-life, etc.
Finally, he’s not doing too bad on the fundraising front, raising $752,062 with $561,968 COH (and $8,245 debt) while Roby has only raised $293,278 with $174,295 COH (and no debt).
Last, but not least, Roby’s now facing a teabagger in the Primary, while Bright will have no Democratic opposition.
Sure, the district is deep red, and voters are angry at the national Democratic Party, but I think Bright is in a much better position than it seems!
I’ve been saying that since before the front-page poll the showed him winning.
I would pick PA-11 to replace VA-05 on the list, in case Kanjorski wins the primary.
Even of those are the 11 most vulnerable, I think we’ll only lose 5 or 6 of them.