IN-Sen: Ellsworth Sounds Likely, Weinzapfel Out

With Tamyra d’Ippolito’s literal 15 minutes of fame having lasted from about 9 to 9:15 yesterday morning, the question now turns to the vacant Senate slot and which Democrat might get selected by the state party to run in Evan Bayh’s stead. Rep. Brad Ellsworth is sounding very interested (pointing to helping more people by being one out of 100 rather than 435 — oh, Brad… so much to learn about how the Senate functions). He says he’ll make a decision about whether to seek the nod within the next week.

Evansville mayor Jonathan Weinzapfel quickly also appeared on everyone’s short list, but he almost as quickly removed his name from consideration. He also is uninterested in running in IN-08, in case Ellsworth’s attempt at a promotion opens up that seat. (Maybe we need Rahm Emanuel to call him up and ask him if he’s tired of being fucking mayor yet?) Weinzapfel’s interest in a 2012 gubernatorial bid is well-known, so it looks like he’s keeping his eyes on that prize — although if Bayh intends on a gubernatorial comeback, that could certainly interfere with Weinzapfel’s plans. (Hoosierdem has some other lesser names in his diary of other possible contenders who’ve said no.)

So, it looks like the party will be choosing between Ellsworth or fellow Rep. Baron Hill. Campaign Diaries does a side-by-side comparison of their voting records (and those of the other House Dems in the state), finding that both the Blue Dogs’ voting records leave a lot to be desired, although Hill (with votes for health care reform and against the FISA amendments) is somewhat better. A somewhat more progressive option that Taniel points to may be state Senate minority leader Vi Simpson, although it’s questionable how competitive she’d be in the general. One other name floating out there, that wouldn’t open up a competitive House seat, is businesswoman Bren Simon (although it’s unclear where she’d fall ideologically). Her late husband’s estate includes 300 shopping malls and the Indiana Pacers.

Whatever else you might think of Evan Bayh’s douchiness, you do have to give some credit for well-executed timing on his retirement announcement (I don’t know if he actually planned it that way or if he just melted down at precisely the right moment, but either way…). Republicans are fuming both at the national and state level, and John Cornyn is demanding that the filing deadline be extended. Wait, why would Cornyn want that deadline to be extended? That means he wants someone else to get in the race (a certain Mike Pence, perhaps)… does that mean he’s not confident in Dan Coats’ ability to prevail in November?

RaceTracker Wiki: IN-Sen

44 thoughts on “IN-Sen: Ellsworth Sounds Likely, Weinzapfel Out”

  1. If Weinzapel’s not running in IN-8, we’ll likely lose that.  Although Ellsworth has a better than even shot of winning the senate seat.  If Hill’s the choice, will likely lose his seat and the senate seat.  Normally, you’d trade a house seat for a senate seat in a minute.  But where the possibility exists that control of the House could come down to one seat, it’s not so clearcut.  And it’s more important to hold the House than the Senate because of the filibuster.  And is there any real difference, say, to 52 or 53 senate seats?

  2. I’m not a fan of this switcharoo and the laws that made it possible.

    I mean technically he withdrew before the filing deadline, and technically, it’s not like it is Bayh’s seat and only he can file.  So why should the party get to pick?  I know this type of law was to help the parties out, but in the situation where there’s no candidate by the filing deadline, shouldn’t the party then forfeit that race?  It would have been different if the withdrawal happened after the deadline.

  3. But he will definitely be a headache for the vote counts on a lot of issues. I’ve mentioned this before, I think, but I have more problems with the guys like Bayh who go out and talk trash about their own party’s initiatives than the ones who just vote against them. (Hence why I don’t usually have many hostile things to say about Gene Taylor or Bobby Bright, but occasionally bash Dan Boren or now former Democrat Parker Griffith.)

    I don’t know whether Ellsworth will lapse into that “I’m not like all those other Democrats” pattern of behavior that Bayh did, but I can say that I think he’s more likely to than Hill is.  

  4. His House seat might be easier to hold and he seems like he would be a fairly strong candidate, plus he’s no more conservative than Ellsworth. I haven’t really seen his name mentioned at all in this discussion, I think he would be a good candidate.

  5. If either one of them does and they have met the signature requirement, we could be looking a similar situation to d’Ippolito if, say, Baron Hill withdraws and the only Dem left becomes the de facto nominee.

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