Awww, yeah… Scotty Ras is rollin’ West Coast-style. Laiiiiiiid-back…
CA-Sen (2/11, likely voters, 1/14 in parens):
Barbara Boxer (D-inc): 46 (46)
Carly Fiorina (R): 42 (43)
Some other: 7 (3)
Not sure: 5 (8)Barbara Boxer (D-inc): 45 (46)
Tom Campbell (R): 41 (42)
Some other: 4 (3)
Not sure: 10 (9)Barbara Boxer (D-inc): 47 (46)
Chuck DeVore (R): 42 (40)
Some other: 6 (4)
Not sure: 5 (10)
(MoE: ±4.5%)
CA-Gov (2/15, likely voters, 1/19 in parens):
Jerry Brown (D): 43 (43)
Meg Whitman (R): 43 (39)
Some other: 6 (7)
Not sure: 8 (11)Jerry Brown (D): 46 (45)
Steve Poizner (R): 34 (35)
Some other: 7 (9)
Not sure: 13 (11)Dianne Feinstein (D): 45 (43)
Meg Whitman (R): 43 (42)
Some other: 2 (6)
Not sure: 9 (9)Dianne Feinstein (D): 48 (43)
Steve Poizner (R): 36 (39)
Some other: 5 (8)
Not sure: 11 (10)
(MoE: ±4.5%)
WA-Sen (2/11, likely voters):
Patty Murray (D-inc): 46
Dino Rossi (R): 48
Some other: 1
Not sure: 5Patty Murray (D-inc): 50
Don Benton (R): 38
Some other: 3
Not sure: 9Patty Murray (D-inc): 49
Clint Didier (R): 34
Some other: 4
Not sure: 13Patty Murray (D-inc): 48
Chris Widener (R): 33
Some other: 5
Not sure: 14
(MoE: ±4.5%)
OR-Sen (2/16, likely voters):
Ron Wyden (D): 49
Jim Huffman (R): 35
Some other: 7
Not sure: 9
(MoE: ±4.5%)
Each of these polls requires a little clarification. First, Dianne Feinstein announced today that, no, she isn’t running for Governor. (Maybe seeing her name polled over and over again by Rasmussen compelled her to act.) In Washington, Dino Rossi, who lost the 2004 and 2008 gubernatorial races and still has the fervent support of many tinfoil hat wearers who think he wuz robbed, has taken no steps toward becoming a candidate (although the GOP seems to be eager to hang their hats on the very small hook offered by his “Never say never” comment). The three GOPers in the race are state Senator Don Benton (who seems well-known as far as state Senators go, though kind of old news today — he lost WA-03 to Brian Baird when it was open in 1998), former NFL player and businessman Clint Didier, and Chris Widener, a Seattle motivational speaker who recently just patched up relations with his ailing dad and found love with Jennifer Aniston. (Oh, wait… that’s the movie I just saw on the airplane.)
In Oregon, today is probably the first day anyone has heard anything of Jim Huffman, who’s rumored to be interested in taking on Ron Wyden although he hasn’t filed yet. He’s a former dean (and still professor) at Lewis & Clark Law School; Blue Oregon has some nice background on his connections to the anti-tax and property rights crowds. Bear in mind that both Washington and Oregon are very polarized states, where a ham sandwich — nay, a pimento loaf sandwich with spoiled mayonnaise — is guaranteed 40% just for showing up with an “R” next to its name, so the numbers for the miscellaneous cast of characters in WA-Sen and OR-Sen should come as no surprise. (It’s the getting to 50%, or even 45% usually, that’s the problem for these states’ GOPers.)
There is another Republican in the race. He entered a few days before Benton, not sure why Ras did not poll him. He went up with a TV ad Monday. He’s Paul Akers, some rich guy.
Wyden has long been the most popular politician in the state, even among Republicans. Case in point, in 2008 and with record turnout for Obama, Merkley won his narrow victory over Gordon Smith carrying 12 counties out of 36, all of them traditionally liberal population centers. In 2004, despite Oregon only narrowly going for Kerry, Wyden won 33/36 counties and only narrowly lost the other three. That’s pretty damn impressive for any Democrat in Oregon, but especially one originally from Portland. It’s because Wyden goes home on a regular basis and campaigns in the entire state – not just fundraisers for his base. Normally solidly Republican rural eastern Oregon loves him because he actually shows up and connects with people in a way that most politicians and especially most Democrats generally take for granted.
Now, I recognize that the anti-incumbent mood would take a toll on his numbers, and that Ras has an axe to grind, but this is still Ron Wyden we’re dealing with, not Generic D, and I don’t buy that Some Guy is even within 15, unless that’s where he tops out. I worry about Merkley’s prospects for re-election when the time comes, but Wyden is safe, even this year.
I call shenanigans
of California. Gavin Newsom has pulled the trigger and has decided to run for lieutenant governor. I may vote for him in that case since the lieutenant governor’s position is pretty much useless here, that’s why John Garamendi jumped at the first chance he had to go to congress. Some of you know my beef with Newsom, I’ll leave it at that.
http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/…
Rasmussen WA polls have overestimated Republican candidates by about 3 points ever since WA went to mail ballots. I think their likely voter screen is too tight and doesn’t take into account higher urban Democratic turnout with new voting methods.
I don’t understand why Moore and Rasmussen both are polling on Rossi. He has stated repeatedly that he isn’t running. He gave a very strong statement to that effect to the Seattle Times and an even stronger statement to The News Tribune. In fact, Benton was pushed into the race in part because of Rossi’s refusal to enter. Several of former Rossi staffers are part of the Benton campaign. Rossi is still trying to retire his campaign debt from his second failed gubenatorial race.
Just while we’re on this topic, are Y’all sure Tom Campbell a more formidable candidate for the GOP than Fioina? I really think that boxer would much rather face a run-of-the-mill white male candidate than a volatile passionate non-career politician who in some ways is similar to boxer herself. I just don’t think that the GOP has much of a chance running a “safe” candidate even in this enviroment.
I know Fiorina has alot, stress alot of vulnerabilities, none more so than her performance at HP, both her biggest strenght and weakness. Crucially though, she has the money to shape the narrative of this race and get her version if events across. She’s an obscure candidate but with establishment support she’ll improve.
She’s a risky candidate choice for the GOP and maybe that’s exactly what they need to beat Boxer in California.
Boxer probably has a 6-10% lead over her opposition. Boxer hasn’t really campaigned yet, and when she does, her numbers will improve.
Brown is probably running even or slightly ahead of the opposition. I don’t care for Brown: I find him to be annoying, arrogant, and kooky. He’s also a retread.
Murray should be ahead by double digits. Rossi won’t run, but if he did, he might be a hard candidate to beat. Murray will survive.
I’m not that surprised by Wyden’s numbers. I have a college roommate who lives in Oregon, and from talking to him the Wyden’s base in Oregon is a bit deflated. Wyden’s base is fairly liberal, and they don’t believe that congress has done enough to curb the 8 years of the Bush regime.