The 2010 Mid-Term elections, part 7: The 22 most vulnerable House Seats

I received a lot of positive feedback and strong insight on Part 1 thru Part 6 of my string of diaries.  I am by no mean an expert on handicapping the races, and that’s the main reason why I’ve been incorporating the feedback I’ve received along with my own gut feelings on how the 2010 mid-term elections will finally play out.  

Recap

My initial conclusion was that the Democrats will lose 28 seats (net) in the 2010 mid-term elections.  Since I believe (along with the average SSP voter) that we will pick up 5 GOP seats in 2010, we will probably lose around 33 Democratically-controlled seats in 2010.  At this time I’m not adusting the overall number of Democratic seats that will be lost.

The following is my list of the 11 most vulnerable Democratic seats, not in any particular order:

1.  LA-03

2.  TN-06

3.  AR-01

4.  AR-02

5.  TN-08

6.  ID-01

7.  MD-01

8.  VA-05

9.  KS-03

10. AL-02

11. MS-01

I received solid feedback regarding these seats.  After reviewing your comments, I will admit that AR-01, AR-02, and TN-08 probably could be removed from the most 11 vulnerable seats.  However, right now I’ll keep these seats on the 22 most vulnerable Democratic seats list.  So here is my list of the 22 most vulnerable Democratic seats (again, in no particular order):

1.  LA-03

2.  TN-06

3.  AR-01

4.  AR-02

5.  TN-08

6.  ID-01

7.  MD-01

8.  VA-05

9.  KS-03

10. AL-02

11. MS-01

12. WA-03

13. NM-02

14. CO-04

15. IN-08

16. OH-01

17. OH-15

18. PA-07

19. NH-02

20. VA-02

21. IN-09

22. NY-29

Once again, please feel free to comment on what you know about these races.  Your comments are valuable to me.  If you feel like some of the above seats do not belong on this list, please tell me, along with viable substitutes.

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