StephenCLE’s 2010 House Predictions – Part 6

Hello, and welcome to part 6 of my 2010 baseline predictions for the House of Representatives.  In this section I will cover the western half of the deep south, referred to by me as the South Gulf.  This region encompasses the states of Alabama, Mississippi, Louisiana, and Texas.  There are 50 total seats in this region, of which the Democrats currently hold 18 and the Republicans hold 32.  Overall, this is one of the most conservative regions of the United States, perhaps the most (although the Plains Region might have something to say about that, we’ll cover that in part 8)

I think this is going to be a rather tough region for the democrats.  In a really big wave, the damage might not be as severe here as it could be in other regions that have more neutral/marginal seats, but there are several seats that the Dems own here that have eye-popping R+ PVIs.  Some of these seats will be the first to go in the 2010 elections.  

First off, a recap of where we’ve been, and where we still have to go:

Northeast – Rep +3 – (Rep pickups of NH-1, NY-24, NY-29)

Mid-Atlantic – Even – (Rep pickups of PA-11, MD-1, Dem pickups of PA-6, DE-1)

Upper South – Rep +5 (Rep pickups of VA-2, VA-5, TN-4, TN-6, TN-8)

South Atlantic – Even – (no pickups on either side)

Eastern Great Lakes – Rep +3 (Rep pickups of OH-1, MI-7, IN-8)

South Gulf –

Western Great Lakes –

Central Plains –

Rocky Mountains –

Pacific Coast –

Alabama-1 – Jo Bonner/Republican – This district, which encompasses the gulf coast of Alabama, is very conservative.  Bonner went uncontested in 2008, and is a lock for 2010.

District PVI – R+14

Stephen’s Rating – Solid R

Prediction – Solid Rep Hold

Alabama-2 – Bobby Bright/Democrat – This extremely conservative district in southeastern Alabama was the site of one of the nation’s closest house races in 2008.  Montgomery mayor Bobby Bright pulled off a monster upset, defeating Jay Love by six-tenths of a percent after Love got dragged down in a brutal republican primary.  This is a district that supported McCain 63-37 over Obama, so it’s no surprise that they are going after Bright with hammer and tongs.  Bright’s voting record has been very independent, actually more like a republican than a democrat, so it’s not out of line with the district.  The Republicans have a crowded primary field, but one candidate, Montgomery city councilwoman Martha Roby, stands out.  Her fundraising has been average thus far, at 293k, but no other republican is on the map there.  Bright is at 752k, which isn’t bad.  Despite the voting record, and his money advantage, I feel all Roby has to do in this environment is say “he voted for Pelosi”, and it’s over.  

District PVI – R+16

Stephen’s Rating – Leans R

Prediction – Moderate Rep Pickup (14th overall)

National Score – Rep +12

Alabama-3 – Mike Rogers/Republican – This district, like the neighboring 2nd, was the sight of a close house race in 2008, as Rogers held off democrat Josh Segall by 6%.  The district favored McCain over Obama by 13%, so Segall was able to overperform that.  However, this re-match is going to be tough for Segall because of the national environment.  Rogers so far has raised 640k to Segall’s 311k, but the cash on hand race is only a 175k difference.  Regardless, this is going to be an uphill climb unless if Rogers makes some significant errors.

District PVI – R+9

Stephen’s Rating – Likely R

Prediction – Strong Rep Hold

Alabama-4 – Robert Aderholt/Republican – This is the 6th most republican district in the nation.  No trouble for Aderholt.

District PVI – R+26

Stephen’s Rating – Solid R

Prediction – Solid Rep Hold

Alabama-5 – Parker Griffith/Republican – Now here’s an interesting situation!  Parker Griffith won this seat as a democrat and then turned his back on them, becoming a republican last December.  In the wake of his switch, his staff quit, and AL-5’s democratic base is up in arms.  The problem is that the democrats don’t have any solid candidates as of yet.  But Griffith is going to probably suffer in a tough republican primary, led by Madison County Commissioner Mo Brooks and businessman Les Philip.  It’s possible that 2008 candidate Wayne Parker could be in the mix too.  If the Democrats can get firmly behind a strong candidate they can win here.  But it’s not looking likely at the moment.

District PVI – R+12

Stephen’s Rating – Likely R

Prediction – Strong Rep Hold

Alabama-6 – Spencer Bachus/Republican – This is the #1 most republican district in the nation.  Nuff said.

District PVI – R+29

Stephen’s Rating – Solid R

Prediction – Solid Rep Hold

Alabama-7 – Open/Democrat – Outgoing rep Artur Davis is running for governor (yeah, good luck with that by the way), and the democrats are in search for somebody more, ahem, progressive to represent this seat.  Attorney Terri Sewell and state representative Earl Hilliard are the favorites here.  Either will keep the seat in democratic hands.

District PVI – D+18

Stephen’s Rating – Solid D

Prediction – Solid Dem Hold

Mississippi-1 – Travis Childers/Democrat – Childers won this seat in a 2008 special election when Roger Wicker was appointed to the Senate, and he won a close race, then trounced his republican opponent by 11 points in the 2008 general election despite the fact that McCain crushed Obama by 25%.  That was impressive, but Childers can’t afford to rest on his laurels.  The republicans got one of their strongest recruits this cycle in state senator Alan Nunnelee, who has raised 421k to Childers’s 822k thus far.  Childers has attempted to fit the district with his voting record, which has been somewhat independent of the national party but again, these rural districts, especially in the south, have the potential to be brutal in 2010.  I say Nunnelee rides the environment and the partisan lean to a win.

District PVI – R+14

Stephen’s Rating – Toss Up

Prediction – Weak Rep Pickup (15th overall)

National Score – Rep +13

Mississippi-2 – Bennie Thompson/Democrat – This is the lone democratic district in Mississippi, and Thompson is fairly popular there, so it’s hard to imagine him having much trouble in 2010.

District PVI – D+12

Stephen’s Rating – Solid D

Prediction – Solid Dem Hold

Mississippi-3 – Gregg Harper/Republican – It’s hard to believe that this is the only district in Mississippi currently held by a republican.  In any case, Harper is safe.

District PVI – R+15

Stephen’s Rating – Solid R

Prediction – Solid Rep Hold

Mississippi-4 – Gene Taylor/Democrat – Now we reach the master, or co-master if you include Chet Edwards, of holding down a crazy republican district as a democrat.  He’s been so strong that even in a cycle like this, the republicans aren’t throwing up much opposition.  This seat will likely be lost when it opens up, but for now, the democrats shouldn’t have much reason to sweat.  I however, refuse to put an R+20 district into lock status in an environment like this.  In the rural south, you just never know.

District PVI – R+20

Stephen’s Rating – Likely D

Prediction – Solid Dem Hold

Louisiana-1 – Steve Scalise/Republican – Moving into the bayou now, we hit some very republican territory, some of the most republican in the entire nation.  Easy squeezie.

District PVI – R+24

Stephen’s Rating – Solid R

Prediction – Solid Rep Hold

Louisiana-2 – Anh Cao/Republican – Cao pulled an upset of historic proportions when he took down William Jefferson by 3%.  This came in a special election held in December because the general had to be postponed because of hurricanes.  It took a scandal and a full freezer full of cash to get Cao where he is now, and given that, I don’t think he’s going to become the republican Gene Taylor.  The democratic primary is between state representatives Cedric Richmond and Juan LaFonta.  Richmond is ahead in fundraising and is just barely behind Cao in cash on hand.  While you can’t write off Cao completely, he is the incumbent, I don’t see him surviving here for long.  

District PVI – D+25

Stephen’s Rating – Likely D

Prediction – Strong Dem Pickup (3rd overall)

National Score – Rep +12

Louisiana-3 – Open/Democrat – Aside from maybe Tennessee-6, this is probably the biggest open seat headache the democrats have in the entire country.  The seat is open due to Charlie Melancon’s decision to run for the Senate against weapons-grade jackass David Vitter.  The good news for the Democrats here is that the Republicans appear headed for a difficult primary, most likely between state representative Nickie Monica and attorney Jeff Landry.  The democratic field is paced by attorney Ravi Sangisetty, who is off to a decent fundraising lead over the field.  The wild card in this race is state natural resource secretary Scott Angelle, who is a democrat but whom the Republicans are trying to get to run for them as a party switcher.  The Dems are angling for him too.  I’m not sure what’s going to happen there, but with the candidates that are currently in, I think the Repubs pick this one up.

District PVI – R+12

Stephen’s Rating – Leans R

Prediction – Strong Rep Pickup (16th overall)

National Score – Rep +13

Louisiana-4 – John Fleming/Republican – Fleming, a physician, won a razor close open seat race by four-tenths of one percent, a race that actually occurred in December due to hurricanes delaying the election.  That delay probably cost the democrats the victory here.  Given that, you’d think that the democrats would be going after him hard, but they don’t even have a candidate in the race.  It looks as though Fleming might go unopposed in 2010, which was unfathomable about 13 months ago.

District PVI – R+11

Stephen’s Rating – Solid R

Prediction – Solid Rep Hold

Louisiana-5 – Rodney Alexander/Republican – This northeastern Louisiana district is like most in the state, very conservative.  No problem for him.  

District PVI – R+14

Stephen’s Rating – Solid R

Prediction – Solid Rep Hold

Louisiana-6 – Bill Cassidy/Republican – This was a race that absolutely haunted Democrats in 2008, as incumbent Don Cazayoux, who won a 2008 special election for the seat, went through an awful, racially based primary against Michael Jackson.  Following Jackson’s defeat, he decided to be a sore loser and run as an independent, splitting the vote and giving Cassidy a 48% plurality victory.  With Cazayoux likely headed to the federal bench, he won’t be running again, and in fact, like in LA-4, the Dems don’t even have a candidate yet.  Amazing how both of these districts just got away and fell into the abyss, probably never to be seen again as Fleming and Cassidy become entrenched.

District PVI – R+10

Stephen’s Rating – Solid R

Prediction – Solid Rep Hold

Louisiana-7 – Charles Boustany/Republican – Yet another extremely republican district.  Get used to it folks, we ain’t in the northeast no more.

District PVI – R+14

Stephen’s Rating – Solid R

Prediction – Solid Rep Hold

Texas-1 – Lou Gohmert/Republican – We move now into the Lone Star State, which outside of the urban areas and the south toward Mexico has become a haven for lunatic reactionaries.  This district, in rural east Texas, personifies that.  No threat for Gohmert.  

District PVI – R+21

Stephen’s Rating – Solid R

Prediction – Solid Rep Hold

Texas-2 – Ted Poe/Republican – This district, in the southeast corner of Texas, is republican territory and an easy retention for Poe, who didn’t even have a challenger in 2008.

District PVI – R+13

Stephen’s Rating – Solid R

Prediction – Solid Rep Hold

Texas-3 – Samuel Johnson/Republican – Johnson is fairly well entrenched inside a district that voted 57-42 for McCain.  The district is starting to turn democratic, but it’s going to be a while until the democrats have a shot at winning it.  

District PVI – R+14

Stephen’s Rating – Solid R

Prediction – Solid Rep Hold

Texas-4 – Ralph Hall/Republican – The northeast corner of the state, this district is rural, very white, and very, very red.  

District PVI – R+21

Stephen’s Rating – Solid R

Prediction – Solid Rep Hold

Texas-5 – Jeb Hensarling/Republican – This is a really easy call as well, as this northeast Texas district is like most of the others, very conservative.

District PVI – R+17

Stephen’s Rating – Solid R

Prediction – Solid Rep Hold

Texas-6 – Joe Barton/Republican – We continue to slog through north central rural country, and this district is just like the rest of em really.  Nothing to see here.

District PVI – R+15

Stephen’s Rating – Solid R

Prediction – Solid Rep Hold

Texas-7 – John Culberson/Republican – This fairly rich, ritzy part of Houston’s northwest is very republican territory, so much so that Culberson will walk through this one unscathed despite getting pressed  a bit in 2008.

District PVI – R+13

Stephen’s Rating – Solid R

Prediction – Solid Rep Hold

Texas-8 – Kevin Brady/Republican – Yet another solidly republican district in rural east Texas, and this one happens to be the 8th most republican in the nation.  Yeesh.  

District PVI – R+25

Stephen’s Rating – Solid R

Prediction – Solid Rep Hold

Texas-9 – Al Green/Democrat – At last we hit a democrat-controlled district, this one in the southern portion of the Houston metroplex.  Green is a solid incumbent in a solidly democratic district, so he shouldn’t have any worries.

District PVI – D+22

Stephen’s Rating – Solid D

Prediction – Solid Dem Hold

Texas-10 – Michael McCaul/Republican – McCaul won his 2008 re-election by 11%, an amount that mirrored the presidential vote here.  It looked like he was headed for a tough re-election against businessman Jack McDonald, but after raising over 1 million he abruptly quit the race in December.  The Dems have since coalesced around 2006 candidate Ted Ankrum, but he came up short by 15 points in a favorable 2006, so it’s hard to imagine him getting close against the well-funded McCaul in 2010.

District PVI – R+10

Stephen’s Rating – Solid R

Prediction – Solid Rep Hold

Texas-11 – Mike Conaway/Republican – This district, which is between the panhandle and the deserts north of the Rio Grande, is the 3rd most republican in the nation.

District PVI – R+28

Stephen’s Rating – Solid R

Prediction – Solid Rep Hold

Texas-12 – Kay Granger/Republican – The 12th is another republican stronghold, lying to the west of the fort worth area.  Granger is safe.

District PVI – R+16

Stephen’s Rating – Solid R

Prediction – Solid Rep Hold

Texas-13 – Mac Thornberry/Republican – This panhandle-based district is a place where very few democrats exist.  Thornberry is probably more worried about challenges from his right, if anything.

District PVI – R+29

Stephen’s Rating – Solid R

Prediction – Solid Rep Hold

Texas-14 – Ron Paul/Republican – The leading libertarian in the house, Paul sometimes makes some strange votes on occasion, which reflects in his party unity scores.  But he’s safe.

District PVI – R+14

Stephen’s Rating – Solid R

Prediction – Solid Rep Hold

Texas-15 – Ruben Hinojosa/Democrat – I don’t get the numbering of Texas districts, we’ve gone from the upper panhandle to the gulf coast to the rio grande valley in the past three districts.  Oh, yes, Hinojosa looks good.

District PVI – D+3

Stephen’s Rating – Solid D

Prediction – Solid Dem Hold

Texas-16 – Silvestre Reyes/Democrat – And now we’re in the El Paso metroplex, go figure.  Well, at any rate Reyes doesn’t have much to worry about here.

District PVI – D+10

Stephen’s Rating – Solid D

Prediction – Solid Dem Hold

Texas-17 – Chet Edwards/Democrat – Back into rural east-central Texas now, and we find a real political anomaly.  Chet Edwards has been able to retain his hold on a district that voted 67-32 for McCain in 2008 and bigger than that for Bush in 2000 and 2004.  He’s in charge of the 19th most Republican seat in the nation.  That being said, his hold is tenuous at best, as he defeated cash-strapped republican Rob Curnock 53-45.  Curnock is back for another run in 2010, but he faces a crowded primary, most notably against businessman Rob Flores, who has fundraised well at 667k so far, and he’s spent some of that already to raise his profile in the district.  To get re-elected as a democrat in a wingnut district like this, in this environment, in the rural south, is just about mission impossible.  This year, I think Edwards’s train reaches the end of the line, regardless of who wins the republican primary.

District PVI – R+20

Stephen’s Rating – Toss Up

Prediction – Weak Rep Pickup (17th overall)

Total National Score – Rep +14

Texas-18 – Sheila Lee/Democrat – We reach the downtown of Houston now, and as with most urban districts, it’s pretty much a cinch for any democrat, including Lee.

District PVI – D+24

Stephen’s Rating – Solid D

Prediction – Solid Dem Hold

Texas-19 – Randy Neugebauer/Republican – Another crazy republican district in the panhandle, this one the 5th most republican in the nation.

District PVI – R+26

Stephen’s Rating – Solid R

Prediction – Solid Rep Hold

Texas-20 – Charlie Gonzalez/Democrat – Our random bopping around the state continues, we’re now in downtown San Antonio.  I swear this is getting to be like “Where in Texas is StephenCLE?”  Yeah, Gonzalez is in good shape for re-election.

District PVI – D+8

Stephen’s Rating – Solid D

Prediction – Solid Dem Hold

Texas-21 – Lamar Smith/Republican – This district is essentially exurbs of Austin and San Antonio, making it an easy hold for a republican.  

District PVI – R+14

Stephen’s Rating – Solid R

Prediction – Solid Rep Hold

Texas-22 – Pete Olson/Republican – Democrat Nick Lampson won here in 2006 when Tom Delay got awashed in his own filth, but he couldn’t hold it in 2008 against Olson.  2010 should be much nicer for republicans and Olson’s win margin should respond appreciably.

District PVI – R+13

Stephen’s Rating – Solid R

Prediction – Solid Rep Hold

Texas-23 – Ciro Rodriguez/Democrat – Rodriguez has once been knocked out via primary challenge, and it looks as though history has a chance to repeat itself, albeit not a great chance.  Lawyer Miguel Ortiz is challenging Rodriguez for the democratic nomination.  Unless he is really softened up, its hard to imagine Rodriguez not making it through the general, as the republican opposition is poor.  Francisco Canseco and William Hurd lead the primary field.  Rodriguez is well over 800k raised so far, so he’s in good financial shape.

District PVI – R+4

Stephen’s Rating – Likely D

Prediction – Strong Dem Hold

Texas-24 – Kenny Marchant/Republican – This fort-worth based district is starting to trend to the left now, but it has a ways to go.  This cycle will hurt as Marchant doesn’t even have a challenger.

District PVI – R+11

Stephen’s Rating – Solid R

Prediction – Solid Rep Hold

Texas-25 – Lloyd Doggett/Democrat – The Austin-based 25th used to be a swing district, but it has swung extremely hard in the democratic direction the last few election cycles.  Doggett is pretty much safe here.

District PVI – D+6

Stephen’s Rating – Solid D

Prediction – Solid Dem Hold

Texas-26 – Michael Burgess/Republican – This district takes in virtually all of fast-growing Denton County and parts of Fort Worth too.  It, like many districts in the Dallas-Fort Worth area is starting to trend blue, but it is still very red for the time being.  

District PVI – R+13

Stephen’s Rating – Solid R

Prediction – Solid Rep Hold

Texas-27 – Solomon Ortiz/Democrat – Ortiz is a pretty entrenched incumbent, and although this Corpus Christi/Brownsville based district does lean slightly republican, it doesn’t appear that he is going to get much of a challenge here.  Still, he only won by 19% in 2008, which implies that this race could eventually become competitive.

District PVI – R+2

Stephen’s Rating – Likely D

Prediction – Strong Dem Hold

Texas-28 – Henry Cuellar/Democrat – Now here’s a guy that is in total command of his district, he hugely overperformed Obama in the 2008 election.  None of the three republicans in the race are even second-tier, so this doesn’t look to be much of a race.

District PVI – Even

Stephen’s Rating – Solid D

Prediction – Solid Dem Hold

Texas-29 – Gene Green/Democrat – The 29th sprawls over much of the east side of Houston, and Green is very well entrenched.  Nothing to see here.

District PVI – D+8

Stephen’s Rating – Solid D

Prediction – Solid Dem Hold

Texas-30 – Eddie Johnson/Democrat – The heart of central Dallas, this is the most democratic district in Texas, and an easy win for Johnson.

District PVI – D+27

Stephen’s Rating – Solid D

Prediction – Solid Dem Hold

Texas-31 – John Carter/Republican – I’m starting to yawn here, there’s just no action in Texas outside of Edwards’s district.  This one looks to be a yawner too.

District PVI – R+14

Stephen’s Rating – Solid R

Prediction – Solid Rep Hold

Texas-32 – Pete Sessions/Republican – Now this is one district that is threatening to fall out under the feet of the incumbent.  This once solidly republican district had the look of a swing district in 2008 as Obama came within 7% of McCain.  Sessions, who won re-election by 17%, is the leader of the NRCC, which might be why the democrats are committed to going after him.  Grier Roggio, the democratic candidate must get going on the fundraising front though, as he’s only raised 189k so far, which isn’t going to get it done against all the resources Sessions has at his disposal.  

District PVI – R+8

Stephen’s Rating – Likely R

Prediction – Strong Rep Hold

Region Recap – The south gulf region is tough territory, and it looks to get even tougher in 2010, as I have the Republicans picking up four districts, AL-2, MS-1, LA-3, and TX-17, giving them 17 total.  The Democrats will pick up LA-2, giving them their 3rd overall.  That leaves the national score at Republicans +14 through six regions.  

Next stop…The Western Great Lakes