The Sun-Sentinel has learned from 2 sources speaking on background that Charlie Crist will leave the Republican Party and run as an independent in this year’s senate election.
Anyone think Meek could pull off an upset now? I’d guess that Crist and Rubio will each end up taking anywhere from 25-35% of the vote, but I don’t know Florida politics that well.
Link to full article below the fold:
Crist is getting killed in the Republican primary polls, so it would make sense if he ditched the Republican party. That being said, this article didn’t convince me that it will happen.
If Crist ran as an independent, I believe this race could be won by Rubio, Crist, or Meek. Rubio would still have the hardcore Republicans, and Meek would still have the liberals, but Crist could really sweep in and take the reasonable Republicans and conservative Democrats, not to mention the Indies. However, I question on how the electorate would feel about Crist if he did abandon the Republican Party.
Democrat – 35%
Republican – 35%
Independent – 30%
D R I
Crist – 35/25/30 = 30%
Meek – 65/0/25 = 31%
Rubio – 0/75/35 = 39%
Rubio sweeps conservatives, Crist/Meek split moderates, Meek wins modestly among liberals.
For all the talk, he really has very few ideological differences with Rubio. I suppose he could emphasize bipartisan cooperation, do an about-face on the stimulus, and talk up his environmentalist credentials.
If there’s one thing that Republicans hate, it’s a traitor, so he won’t be able to count on much Republican support. I don’t see how he can build a viable coalition as an Indie.
I believe I had this one called back in December that Crist was going to run as an independent. This race is going to be VERY interesting now.
If the race was just Meek vs Rubio then I think Meek would win, despite what the polls say now. All he has to do is say “I’m the level-headed candidate in this race”. However in a 3-way Rubio would win with 40%.
It’s not worth it just for the short-term propaganda win of having a moderate leave the Republican party because they are too extreme.
…if Crist runs as an Indie we risk a two-way race where Democrats are forced to cast a symbolic vote for Meeks or a “meaningful” vote for Crist.
The problem is Crist especially if he moves towards the center if not in substance than in style may attract Democrats without ever saying he won’t caucus with Republicans. And that is what matters be it Lieberman, Sanders, Harry Byrd Jr, or Crist.
While perhaps it may make him a vote less likely to blindly join a filibuster and independent because of the way the senate works can’t be a true independent. They have to caucus with one side or another. And if he caucuses with the Republicans. No matter what he calls himself or what he runs as. He’s a Republican. Even if the voters are fooled into thinking otherwise.
Just got a call from the Crist campaign saying there’s no chance he will run as an independent or Democrat. He’s GOP 4 Life.