Texas Primaries Prediction Thread

While we’re sitting around waiting for the main event to start, let’s hear your predictions on tonight’s primaries in the Lone Star State. Can one-time sure-thing Kay Bailey Hutchison somehow pull off the upset and beat Rick Perry? OK, OK, you can stop the laughing now… can KBH somehow keep Rick Perry from clearing 50% and avoiding a runoff? Will enough teabaggers show up at the polls for an impressive showing for Debra Medina (and for primary challenges to Ralph Hall and Pete Sessions), or are their 15 minutes of fame/2 minutes of hate coming to a close? Will the long-anticipated matchup of Ciro Rodriguez and Quico Canseco finally come to pass, or will Canseco’s run of primary bad luck continue? And can Bill White clear 50% himself, or will hair care guru Farouk Shami force him into a resource-draining runoff? To prep yourself for answering all these questions, check out DavidNYC‘s preview from last night.

Polls close at 7 pm CT in most parts of the state and will start reporting then, although El Paso (on Mountain Time) closes an hour later. And in the meantime, don’t forget there are state House special elections on tap in Virginia and Connecticut.

26 thoughts on “Texas Primaries Prediction Thread”

  2. I have no idea, but it’s always fun to guess….

    Perry 55%

    Hutchinson 35%

    Medina 10%

    White takes it in walk 70%+

    And the Republican base opts for the CIA agent instead of known Latino Canseco. Just cuz they’re crazy like that.

  3. Perry 50.7% (sucks to be us dems)

    Hutch 32.6%

    Tinfoil Hat 16.7%

    No incumbent US congresmen loose.

    State Rep Hopson (-D- NO R!) gets goes to a runoff, at least 2 other incumbent statehouse members lose or go into losing runoffs (Not including HD 100 where Terri Hodge (D) resigned and is headin’ to jail).

    White gets well over 55%, comes close to 60%.  I’ll say 58.6% (man, I’m optimistic).

    And I will predict people are lazy and I find myself elected as a delegate to the county convention easily enough due to lack of competition. 😛

  4. Gov-R

    Perry 47%

    Hutchinson 36%

    Medina 16%

    Gov-D

    White 65%

    Shami 17%

    all others — 18%

    Board of Education

    -Creationists will secure a majority on the board.  And my opinion of Texas will fall even further

    TX-04

    — Hall will get 45% or so, and be forced into a runoff

    TX-14

    — Paul 60%

    TX-18

    Jackson stays above 50%… but not higher  than 60%

  6. Perry- 57%

    KBH-35%

    Medina- 8%

    Basically predicting a Medina meltdown helping Perry.  

    White- 75%

    Shami- 25%

    Further prediction: the crazies get their majority on the school board.

  7. But El Paso is so isolated from the rest of Texas, I don’t know if it counts.  It is more like southern New Mexico’s major city.

    Anyhoo

    Perry 56%

    Hutchinson 37%

    Medina 7%

    White wins in a walk, say 77%

    Rodriguez gets by with 59% and avoids a runoff.  

  8. Perry 48%

    Hutchison 42%

    Medina 20%

    White 55%

    Shami 20%

    Congress critters all win re-election.

    In my district (23rd), based on signage I’d say Lowry, followed by Hurd, then Canseco.

    Lite Gov

    Chavez-Thompson 45%

    Earle 40%

    Katz 15%

    Ag Comm

    Gilbert 60

    Friedman 40

    Land

    Uribe 60

    Burton 40

    SBOE

    I think the vehement creationists win 2 (Districts 5 & 9) out of 3 (District 10).

  11. original inclinations. She should have: 1) resigned last summer from the Senate, 2) moved back to TX, 3) literally moved out of DC (selling her house), and 4) campaigned 24/7 in TX for the Gov job and against Perry.

    predictions:

    Perry 51

    KBH 39

    other 10

    White 60

    Shami 25

    others 15

  12. Rick Perry 46%

    Kay Bailey Hutchinson 30%

    Debra Medina 24%

    I think a lot of the far right wing conservative vote may be there for Medina knowing that even if she loses they can still vote for their number two choice in a run-off.  

  13. Perry – 48%

    Hutchison – 36%

    Medina – 16%

    Hutchison will be pressured to bow out with these numbers. I have no clue if she will, but I tend to doubt that she will.  

    White 62% versus the field.

    If White doesn’t win at least 60% today, he has no chance in November. None.  

  14. Kerry D. Bolognese 544 55.90% Precincts Reporting: R

       1 of 15 (6.666%)

    Eileen Filler-Corn 428 43.98% D

    Write In 1 0.10%

    Only one precinct is in so there is still a great chance for Filler-Corn.  

  15. Perry- 52%

    KBH- 40%

    Medina- 8%

    Perry deserves credit for recognizing the potential of the tea party movement before almost any other politician.  

  18. Perry-53%

    KBH-38%

    Right wing loon- 9%

    White-66%

    Left wing loon-30%

    Other- 4%

    Also I think Kinky will pull it off, although I don’t think he’s qualified.    

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