StephenCLE’s 2010 House Predictions – Part 8

Hello, and welcome to part 8 of my 2010 baseline predictions for the House of Representatives.  In this section we will cover the Central Plains region.  This region covers the states of Iowa, Missouri, Arkansas, Oklahoma, Kansas, Nebraska, South Dakota, and North Dakota.  This is, along with the South Gulf, one of the two most conservative regions of the United States, as the western and southern portions are extremely conservative, with only Iowa and Missouri really in play at the presidential level.  However, the democrats have done a pretty good job at the congressional level here, as the republicans only lead 18 seats to 14.  The bad part about that is that there are only 6 D+ PVI seats in the whole region, all held by democrats, meaning that the potential for big losses in 2010 is there.

First off, a recap of where we’ve been, and where we still have to go*:

Northeast – Rep +3 – (Rep pickups of NH-1, NY-24, NY-29)

Mid-Atlantic – Even – (Rep pickups of PA-11, MD-1, Dem pickups of PA-6, DE-1)

Upper South – Rep +5 (Rep pickups of VA-2, VA-5, TN-4, TN-6, TN-8)

South Atlantic – Even – (no pickups on either side)

Eastern Great Lakes – Rep +3 (Rep pickups of OH-1, MI-7, IN-8)

South Gulf – Rep +3 (Rep pickups of AL-2, MS-1, LA-3, TX-17, Dem pickup of LA-2)

Western Great Lakes – Dem +1 (Dem pickup of IL-10)

Central Plains –

Rocky Mountains –

Pacific Coast –

Total National Score – Rep +13

* – Please note that in most cases these ratings were done prior to any polling becoming known.  

Iowa-1 – Bruce Braley/Democrat – Braley won this eastern Iowa seat in 2006 and retained it by 29% in 2008.  He seems like a popular guy too within the district.  There’s really not much of any republican opposition forming this cycle either, so I think he’s safe.

District PVI – D+5

Stephen’s Rating – Solid D

Prediction – Solid Dem Hold

Iowa-2 – Dave Loebsack/Democrat – Loebsack isn’t quite as entrenched into his district yet as Braley is, but again, the opposition for Team Red doesn’t look all that promising, and IA-2 is a bit more democratic than IA-1.  Gotta like Loebsack for a retention here.

District PVI – D+7

Stephen’s Rating – Solid D

Prediction – Solid Dem Hold

Iowa-3 – Leonard Boswell/Democrat – It looks like all the action in Iowa is going to be taking place here.  This district, which is centered on Des Moines in central Iowa, is a nearly even district politically speaking.  Boswell isn’t the strongest of incumbents, but it should be noted that his 14% win in 2008 was actually a 5% overperformance over Obama’s 54-45 win over John McCain that same year.  Boswell hasn’t been the strongest fundraiser, sitting at 583k this cycle, but it still puts him ahead of the nearest republican challenger by almost 3-1.  Speaking of the opposition, the republican primary is very congested, lead by state senator Brad Zaun and financial analyst/former wrestling coach Jim Gibbons.  Either of these candidates would be a strong challenge to Boswell, and I have deep concerns about coattails in Iowa because of Chuck Grassley running for Senate and the hugely unpopular Chet Culver running for governor.  I may be pessimistic about this one, but I think inability to get entrenched plus a strong republican pull at the top of the ticket will doom Boswell in November.

District PVI – D+1

Stephen’s Rating – Toss Up

Prediction – Weak Rep Pickup (18th overall)

National Score – Rep +14

Iowa-4 – Tom Latham/Republican – Latham beat back a challenge from farmer and party activist Becky Greenwald by a surprisingly large margin, as the race was assumed to be a tough one.  That performance leads me to believe that Latham is safe this cycle.  

District PVI – Even

Stephen’s Rating – Solid R

Prediction – Solid Rep Hold

Iowa-5 – Steve King/Republican – The one republican-leaning district in the state, King is on easy territory looking toward his 2010 race.

District PVI – R+9

Stephen’s Rating – Solid R

Prediction – Solid Rep Hold

Missouri-1 – William Clay/Democrat – We head into Missouri now, and into the democratic bastion of the state in St Louis.   Clay is very safe in this extremely liberal area.  

District PVI – D+27

Stephen’s Rating – Solid D

Prediction – Solid Dem Hold

Missouri-2 – Todd Akin/Republican – The 2nd, which consists mostly of St. Louis’s affluent western and northwestern suburbs, is a very republican zone.  Akin won his 2008 re-election by over 25%, so he’s got nothing to be worried about.  

District PVI – R+9

Stephen’s Rating – Solid R

Prediction – Solid Rep Hold

Missouri-3 – Russ Carnahan/Democrat – The 3rd is a district consisting of St. Louis’s southern suburbs and some union-friendly towns along the Mississippi.  It’s a democratic district, but not so much that a republican could never win.  Carnahan is very popular, having won his race by 39% in 2008.  Which is why I’m a bit puzzled as to how his republican challenger, Ed Martin, is leading him in cash on hand this cycle 335k to 217k.  Normally I’d be more concerned about that, but I don’t think Carnahan is in any real danger.

District PVI – D+7

Stephen’s Rating – Solid D

Prediction – Solid Dem Hold

Missouri-4 – Ike Skelton/Democrat – Skelton has been a long serving representative, one of the longest in the democratic caucus, and when he won this district it was much more competitive and swingish than it is now.  MO-4 is trending hard to the right, and John McCain won here by a 61-38 count while Skelton cruised with a 31% win.  With the environment going their way, the republicans figure they have a good chance to win here, and they’ve got two strong candidates competing for the republican nomination, state senator Bill Stouffer and state representative Vicky Hartzler.  Both are fundraising well so far at 347k and 302k respectively, but that trails Skelton by a wide margin as he’s raised 1.1 million this cycle, an impressive count for an incumbent that hasn’t had to do much campaigning in recent years.  Despite the tough opposition, there’s a chance that Stouffer and Hartzler could beat each other up, plus I think that Skelton has a bit of that Gene Taylor/Chet Edwards “untouchable incumbent” quality to him.  I say he wins by a fair margin.  

District PVI – R+14

Stephen’s Rating – Leans D

Prediction – Strong Dem Hold

Missouri-5 – Emanuel Cleaver/Democrat – The Kansas City-based 5th is another democratic bastion, and Cleaver shouldn’t have any trouble holding it in 2010.

District PVI – D+10

Stephen’s Rating – Solid D

Prediction – Solid Dem Hold

Missouri-6 – Sam Graves/Republican – Out of all the rural districts in Missouri, this one in the northwest part of the state is the least conservative.  However, the democrats haven’t even found a challenger to Graves, who won re-election in 2008 by roughly 20%.  

District PVI – R+7

Stephen’s Rating – Solid R

Prediction – Solid Rep Hold

Missouri-7 – Open/Republican – Roy Blunt is abdicating this seat to run for the Senate, but as with most republican open seats this cycle, it is very solidly red turf.  The republican primary is very jammed with candidates, but it’s pretty much a certainty that whoever wins that wins the seat.  

District PVI – R+17

Stephen’s Rating – Solid R

Prediction – Solid Rep Hold

Missouri-8 – Joann Emerson/Republican – Emerson’s district in southeastern Missouri is really trending republican at the moment, and it is the 2nd most republican in the state.  That being said, surprisingly, she has drawn a strong challenger in democrat Tommy Sowers, who has raised 383k so far this cycle.  That still trails Emerson’s 687k though, although the cash on hand disparity is much less, about 340k to 260k.  If Sowers campaigns well, you never know, this could turn into a bit of a sleeper.  However, in this environment, in a cherry-red district like this, against a wildly popular incumbent, Sowers would need a minor miracle to pull this one off.  

District PVI – R+15

Stephen’s Rating – Likely R

Prediction – Solid Rep Hold

Missouri-9 – Blaine Luetkemeyer – This district represents a major recruiting epic fail for the democrats, as they nearly picked off this district in a 2008 open seat race between Luetkemeyer and democrat Judy Baker, which Luetkemeyer won 49-47.  No democratic challenger has emerged thus far for 2010.

District PVI – R+9

Stephen’s Rating – Solid R

Prediction – Solid Rep Hold

Arkansas-1 – Open/Democrat – We now head to Arkansas, which aside from Tennessee is probably the single worst state for House Dems heading into 2010.  Marion Berry is retiring, which makes this seat a very tough hold.  What’s weird about this race is that so far there’s only one confirmed candidate on each side, and virtually no money has been raised yet.  It’s a late developer, as both sides are waiting on their preferred candidates.  Team Blue has lots of choices, from state senator Steve Bryles to former Arkansas Dem party chairman Jason Willett, to Berry’s own chief of staff Chad Causey.  On the other side, farmer and army veteran Rick Crawford, congressional aide Princella Smith, and state senator Johnny Key are all in the hunt among others.  This district is a tough one to call, as it’s mostly democratic at the state level but has been rapidly trending republican at the national level.  They say politics is local, but in a cycle like this, I’m inclined to believe that adage won’t have as many legs as it usually does.

District PVI – R+8

Stephen’s Rating – Toss Up

Prediction – Weak Rep Pickup (19th overall)

National Score – Rep +15

Arkansas-2 – Open/Democrat – Like his 1st district counterpart, Vic Snyder has called it quits.  This district is going to be a real headache for the democrats as the Republicans have already coalesced around their candidate, former US attorney Tim Griffin.  Griffin brings money and name recognition, though he could be vulnerable because of his work in the Bush Administration.  The Democratic primary is a very jumbled affair now that their #1 guy, Lt Gov Bill Halter, has decided to run against Blanche Lincoln in the democratic Senate primary.  Given all this, and considering that Arkansas is moving way right, way fast, this looks like a republican pickup.

District PVI – R+5

Stephen’s Rating – Likely R

Prediction – Strong Rep Pickup (20th overall)

National Score – R+16

Arkansas-3 – Open/Republican – Another republican open seat thanks to John Boozman running for the Senate, but yet again, it’s in a crazily republican district.  Whoever comes out of the republican primary will cruise into this seat.

District PVI – R+16

Stephen’s Rating – Solid R

Prediction – Solid Rep Hold

Arkansas-4 – Mike Ross/Democrat – Ross is the only member of the Arkansas delegation standing in for re-election, and he looks like a sure bet even though his district is turning red.

District PVI – R+7

Stephen’s Rating – Solid D

Prediction – Solid Dem Hold

Oklahoma-1 – John Sullivan/Republican – Now we hit the single most conservative state in the union in 2008, Oklahoma.  The 1st district is based around Tulsa, and is hugely republican.  Sullivan is safe.

District PVI – R+16

Stephen’s Rating – Solid R

Prediction – Solid Rep Hold

Oklahoma-2 – Dan Boren/Democrat – Boren is a very conservative democrat, almost to the point where he’s just as conservative as the most liberal republicans in the house.  He’s very popular in this eastern Oklahoma district and isn’t in much danger despite the district’s rapid turn to the right, which means we’ll still be hearing his occasional diatribes against the House dem leadership after 2010.  The republicans are sure to go after him but so far only token opposition has made the plunge.

District PVI – R+14

Stephen’s Rating – Solid D

Prediction – Solid Dem Hold

Oklahoma-3 – Frank Lucas/Republican – This western Oklahoma district is the 11th most republican in the nation.  No big deal for Lucas.

District PVI – R+24

Stephen’s Rating – Solid R

Prediction – Solid Rep Hold

Oklahoma-4 – Tom Cole/Republican – The Norman-based 4th is also extremely republican, just like the rest of the state.  Cole is safe.  Seriously, without Boren, the Dems would be dead meat in this state.  Kinda like Jim Matheson in Utah, whom we’ll get to in the next section.

District PVI – R+18

Stephen’s Rating – Solid R

Prediction – Solid Rep Hold

Oklahoma-5 – Open/Republican – Well gee, another hugely republican-leaning open seat, this one courtesy of Mary Fallin bailing for a run at the governorship.  The Oklahoma City-based 5th is the most democratic district in the state, which is like saying that RI-1 is the most republican district in Rhode Island.  There are a huge amount of republicans running in their primary, but no confirmed democratic candidates yet.  The only way in which this race becomes competitive is if Oklahoma first lady Kim Henry decides to jump in, but the odds of that are slim.  

District PVI – R+13

Stephen’s Rating – Solid R

Prediction – Solid Rep Hold

Kansas-1 – Open/Republican – Another republican open seat in solidly republican territory (like seriously did they plan all this out beforehand?  And why can’t democrats only open up their safe seats?)  Anyway, rep Jerry Moran is running for the Senate, and whoever wins the republican primary will win the seat, which consists of Kansas’s rural west and is the 12th most republican in the nation.

District PVI – R+23

Stephen’s Rating – Solid R

Prediction – Solid Rep Hold

Kansas-2 – Lynn Jenkins/Republican – This district was the site of one of the few republican pickups in 2008, as Jenkins knocked off Nancy Boyda 50-46 to claim the seat.  With Boyda not running again, the democrats had a very strong candidate in state senator Laura Kelly to run against Jenkins but she dropped out a few months ago.  Without Kelly, the democrats will look to retired banker Cheryl Hudspeth and health care company president Kyle Kessler.  Interestingly, Jenkins is facing a primary challenge from teabagger Dennis Pyle.  It’s unlikely she’ll lose but if she does, the dems will really be kicking themselves over losing Kelly.

District PVI – R+9

Stephen’s Rating – Likely R

Prediction – Solid Rep Hold

Kansas-3 – Open/Democrat – This is the theme in the Plains Region, lots of open seats, republican ones in safe R zones, democratic ones in swing or dangerous zones.  This seat is no different, as Dennis Moore is retiring perhaps in front of a groundswell of protest over his voting record this cycle.  Barack Obama did squeeze out a 51-48 win here though, so it’s not impossible for a liberal to win here.  However, the democrats must find a candidate first, as they currently have none, which is pathetic considering that they currently hold the seat.  It’s rumored that Moore’s wife might run for the seat, which might be the Dems only shot at retention.  The republican primary is scrambled, with lots of candidates and no clear favorite, but at least they have live bodies.

District PVI – R+3

Stephen’s Rating – Leans R

Prediction – Moderate Rep Pickup (21st overall)

National Score – Rep +17

Kansas-4 – Open/Republican – If it sounds like I’m beating a dead horse by now, it’s because I am.  Another open seat in solidly red territory, caused by Todd Tiahrt’s run for Senate.  But my oh my, there’s a twist in the usual script in the Wichita-based 4th.  The democrats have an unusually strong candidate here in state representative Raj Goyle, who is leading the fundraising race having pulled in a strong 656k.  The republican field though, is deep and fairly strong, paced by state senator Dick Kelsey, RNC committeeman Mike Pompeo, and businessmen Willis Hartman and Jim Anderson.  This has the potential to be a race if Goyle proves himself on the campaign trail, but he’s got a very difficult road ahead.  

District PVI – R+14

Stephen’s Rating – Likely R

Prediction – Strong Rep Hold

Nebraska-1 – Jeff Fortenberry/Republican – Nebraska is one of only four states in the union with a democratic house member, and the only state with multiple districts (Wyoming, Montana, and Alaska are the others).  Fortenberry is well entrenched and has nothing to worry about here.

District PVI – R+11

Stephen’s Rating – Solid R

Prediction – Solid Rep Hold

Nebraska-2 – Lee Terry/Republican – This former Republican stronghold took a very hard swing to the left in 2008 and garnered national attention when Barack Obama beat John McCain 50-49 to earn an electoral vote.  Republican Lee Terry struggled too, nearly losing to democrat Jim Esch.  It looks like another tough race is on the horizon here as state senator-representative Tom White is in the race, probably the best candidate Team Blue had in the district.  He’s fundraising well too, only trailing 485k to 340k in cash on hand so far this cycle.  Complicating things for Terry is that he is facing a primary challenge from businessman Matthew Sakalowsky.  The big question in this Omaha-based district is whether or not the democratic surge in 2008 was a one time deal or a portrait of things to come.  I’m not sure what the answer is.  If it’s the latter, then Terry is in huge trouble.  The environment should help the incumbent a bit though.  Quick sidebar, unless Nebraska has independent redistricting, it’s likely that this district is going to get split apart after 2010 as state republicans fumed over Obama’s win there.

District PVI – R+6

Stephen’s Rating – Leans R

Prediction – Moderate Rep Hold

Nebraska-3 – Adrian Smith/Republican – Here’s another cinch district for the Republicans, as it’s the 9th most conservative in the nation.  

District PVI – R+24

Stephen’s Rating – Solid R

Prediction – Solid Rep Hold

South Dakota-1 – Stephanie Herseth-Sandlin/Democrat – South Dakota is a fairly republican state, though it did move quite a bit left in 2008, resulting in only a single digit win for John McCain over Barack Obama.  Herseth-Sandlin has always been a popular figure in the state, and republicans were hoping she would bail to run either for the open governorship or challenge John Thune for the senate.  The republicans still think in the current environment that this race is winnable, and they do have some strong candidates in secretary of state Chris Nelson and state representative Blake Curd.  If things get really, really bad for the dems I could see them dropping this race, but it would have to be a Lincoln Chafee-esque situation where House control came down to the last few days for Herseth-Sandlin to lose.  The odds are in her favor.

District PVI – R+9

Stephen’s Rating – Likely D

Prediction – Solid Dem Hold

North Dakota-1 – Earl Pomeroy/Democrat – Another long entrenched incumbent here in Pomeroy, and one that usually doesn’t have to sweat much through re-election.  However, this year will be different, as the republicans are throwing at him two strong candidates, former state house majority leader Rick Berg and state public service commission chairman Kevin Cramer.  Pomeroy, like counterpart Herseth-Sandlin, is a great fundraiser and is generally quite popular, but this race is more serious because of one extra variable, popular republican governor John Hoeven is running for the Senate, which might bring lots of coattails.  Still, I think Pomeroy is too strong.

District PVI – R+10

Stephen’s Rating – Leans D

Prediction – Strong Dem Hold

Region Recap – Because of the large distribution of open seats and the national environment, the Central Plains look to be a very hostile region for the Democrats in 2010.  I see the Republicans picking up 4 seats in this region, IA-3, AR-1, AR-2, and KS-3, bringing them to 21 total pickups compared to the Democrats’ 4, for a total national score of Republicans +17.  Iowa-3 was an extremely tough call, one that I made more on the strength of coattails from Chuck Grassley and Chet Culver, negative coattails in the latter situation, then on Boswell himself.  I feel much more confident in the other calls.

Only two regions left!  Next stop…The Rocky Mountains