Over the past 50 years, the United States has seen numerous realignments between the Democratic and Republican parties. The Northeast was once a haven for the “Rockefeller Republicans” who are not at all similar to the 2010 Republican party. At the same time, the Dixicrat Democrats used to rule the South, and these Dixicrats are not anything like the current Democratic party (at least not regarding civil rights and social issues). I thought I’d explore the realignment of each region as defined by StephenCle’s diaries. I will start out with the Northeast, consisting of ME, NH, VT, RI, CT, MA, and NY.
House representation realignment
In 1960, the Democrats controlled 263 out of 437 house seats (there was an additional seat that year for Hawaii and Alaska which was added after the 1950 census). In essence, the Democrats controlled 60% of the house. Here are some snapshots of this area in the last 50 years. I’ve chosen to include certain election years to analyize(it doesn’t take into account party defections, vacancies due to death/retirement, etc subsequent to the GE). So here it goes!
After each US House elections, Northeast:
1960: 36(D), 35(R)
1964: 44(D), 22(R)
1966: 42(D), 24(R)
1972: 37(D), 27(R)
1974: 44(D), 20(R)
1980: 38(D), 26(R)
1984: 33(D), 25(R)
1990: 39(D), 19(R)
1994: 32(D), 22(R)
2002: 36(D), 15(R)
2006: 44(D), 7(R)
2008: 48(D), 3(R)
As of today, their are 49 Democratic seats, and 2 Republican seats, thanks to Owen’s victory in NY-23.
As you can see, the Democrats gained considerable momentum during the JFK/LBJ years of 1961-1964. While the Democrats lost big in 1966 (52 seats total), we lost only 2 seats in the Northeast. During Nixon’s first term as President, the Republicans gain a handful of seats, only to lose that wave during the Watergate years. The Republicans were assisted during the Reagan revolution, but by 1990, all of those gains were depleted. Several seats were won by the Republicans after the first two years of Clinton’s Presidency, but once again, this played out within 8 years. Today, this district holds only 2 Republican seats.
After each US Senate elections, Northeast:
1960: 5(D), 9(R)
1964: 8(D), 6(R)
1966: 8(D), 6(R)
1972: 7(D), 7(R)
1974: 8(D), 6(R)
1980: 7(D), 7(R)
1984: 7(D), 7(R)
1990: 8(D), 6(R)
1994: 7(D), 7(R)
2002: 9(D), 5(R)
2006: 10(D), 4(R)
2008: 11(D), 3(R)
As of today, the Democrats have a 10-4 advantage over the Republicans (Brown’s victory over Coakley adds another seat for the GOP).
As we can all see, the Republicans in the Northeast have historically fared much better in the Senate than the House. I believe that it took many years for the entrenched Rockefeller Republicans to be defeated (Chafee) or to defect to the Democrats (Jefford, Indy who caucused with the Dems as of 2001).
Conclusions
In 1960, there were 71 house districts in this region, compared to 51 today. The Democrats have effectively gained control of this region to the point where we can’t gain much more. In fact, we will probably lose some of these seats due to (a) vulnerable Democrats representing mildly Republican areas, and (b) losing districts via the Census. The major reason why the Deomcrats have gained such an advantage is due to our strong platform and policies, plus a rightward trend by the Republican parties. Any future trends in this region will probably assist the Republicans, basically because they are currently almost at “rock bottom”.
I look forward to the rest of this series.