StephenCLE’s 2010 House Predictions – Part 9

Hello, and welcome to part 9 of my 2010 baseline predictions for the House of Representatives.  In this section I will cover the Rocky Mountains.  This region contains the states of Montana, Wyoming, Colorado, New Mexico, Arizona, Utah, Nevada, Idaho, Oregon, Washington, and Alaska.  (I threw in the Pacific Northwest because keeping those in the Pacific region would’ve made that zone far too large, thanks California).  This region is kind of strange.  Some states are heavily republican while others are democratic, and some are swingish.  The problem for the democrats is that they are almost maxed out in the region, as they have 27 of the region’s 43 seats, compared with only 16 for the republicans.  Of those 27 seats, 8 of them are R+4 or worse in PVI, including 2 seats of R+15 or worse. Because of that and the fact that many states here have an independent-natured electorate, along with the Upper South and the Central Plains, the Rocky Mountains could be the site of major Dem losses.

First off, a recap of where we’ve been, and where we still have to go*:

Northeast – Rep +3 – (Rep pickups of NH-1, NY-24, NY-29)

Mid-Atlantic – Even – (Rep pickups of PA-11, MD-1, Dem pickups of PA-6, DE-1)

Upper South – Rep +5 (Rep pickups of VA-2, VA-5, TN-4, TN-6, TN-8)

South Atlantic – Even – (no pickups on either side)

Eastern Great Lakes – Rep +3 (Rep pickups of OH-1, MI-7, IN-8)

South Gulf – Rep +3 (Rep pickups of AL-2, MS-1, LA-3, TX-17, Dem pickup of LA-2)

Western Great Lakes – Dem +1 (Dem pickup of IL-10)

Central Plains – Rep +4 (Rep pickups of IA-3, AR-1, AR-2, KS-3)

Rocky Mountains –

Pacific Coast –

Total National Score – Rep +17

* – Please note that in most cases these ratings were done prior to any polling becoming known.  

Montana-1 – Denny Rehberg/Republican – Montana was the site of a big democratic swing in 2008 as Obama nearly won against McCain four years after Kerry got demolished by Bush.  Maybe that trend will continue, maybe it won’t, but what won’t change is Rehberg’s hold on this district.

District PVI – R+7

Stephen’s Rating – Solid R

Prediction – Solid Rep Hold

Wyoming-1 – Cynthia Lummis/Republican – Lummis had a surprisingly difficult time winning this open seat, as democrat Gary Trauner kept it close most of the way before ultimately falling by 10%.  Seeing as this is Wyoming, it’s likely that Lummis will have this seat for as long as she wants, barring a scandal.  

District PVI – R+20

Stephen’s Rating – Solid R

Prediction – Solid Rep Hold

Colorado-1 – Diana DeGette/Democrat – From the vast emptiness of Wyoming to the bustle of downtown Denver we move, and boy does the political landscape change.  DeGette probably would have more to sweat in a primary than in a general vs a republican.

District PVI – D+21

Stephen’s Rating – Solid D

Prediction – Solid Dem Hold

Colorado-2 – Jared Polis/Democrat – The Boulder-based 2nd, along with many college based districts not in the plains or south, is solidly democratic.  It’s on the fringes of what the repubs could conceivably challenge for in the best of red years, but Polis hasn’t drawn any credible opposition.

District PVI – D+11

Stephen’s Rating – Solid D

Prediction – Solid Dem Hold

Colorado-3 – John Salazar/Democrat – The 3rd stretches over a wide, mountainous area in the western half of Colorado.  Salazar, who is one of the more conservative democrats in the House, has had a very strong grip on this conservative leaning district, winning with 62% of the vote in both 2006 and 2008 despite McCain beating Obama 50-47.  State representative Scott Tipton, Salazar’s 2006 opponent is back for another run, and he’s barely ahead of a bunch of nobodies looking for the republican nomination.  Given Salazar’s popularity I don’t see a pickup as very likely here.

District PVI – R+5

Stephen’s Rating – Likely D

Prediction – Strong Dem Hold

Colorado-4 – Betsy Markey/Democrat – The rural eastern part of Colorado is generally very conservative, but a major shift occurred in 2008, as Barack Obama came within 1% of winning the presidential vote here, and Betsy Markey defeated conservative firebrand Marilyn Musgrave by a 56-44 margin.  I tend to think that was more a result of incumbent weakness than anything else.  Regardless, this is going to be a huge battleground in 2008, as the republicans got a very strong candidate in Colorado house minority whip Cory Gardner.  Other candidates in the race include Colorado regent Tom Lucero and Colorado Springs city councilman Diggs Brown.  Markey has been an absolute stalwart in fundraising, having raised 1.17 million, with only Gardner being in the same stratosphere at 596k.  Markey’s voting record has been somewhat pragmatic, and I think she’s positioning herself well, so I want to pick her for a retention.  But seeing just how conservative this district was not long ago, and assuming Gardner makes it out of the primary, I have some serious doubts.  Hickenlooper might be able to provide some coattails at the top of the ticket, but that could be canceled out if Jane Norton is headed for a Senate victory.  Ah, such a tough one to call, kinda like OH-15.  This time though, I go red.

District PVI – R+6

Stephen’s Rating – Toss Up

Prediction – Weak Rep Pickup (22nd overall)

National Score – Rep +18

Colorado-5 – Doug Lamborn/Republican – The Colorado Springs-based 5th is the most republican district in Colorado, and should be an easy retention for Lamborn.

District PVI – R+14

Stephen’s Rating – Solid R

Prediction – Solid Rep Hold

Colorado-6 – Mike Coffman/Republican – This is a seat based mostly in the Denver suburbs that is starting to turn more democratic, but at present, it’s still fairly red.  Looking back on it, with Obama only falling by 6%, the Democrats should have done more to contest this open seat last cycle, which Coffman won with a 60% share.  It’s unlikely to be competitive this cycle, but watch for redistricting in case democrats are holding the hammer.  How they redraw the lines might be dependent on whether Markey survives too.

District PVI – R+8

Stephen’s Rating – Solid R

Prediction – Solid Rep Hold

Colorado-7 – Ed Perlmutter/Democrat – The suburban Denver 7th was initially drawn to be a partisan battleground, but it too has trended blue, and is now a D-leaning seat.  Perlmutter won by a huge margin in 2008 but the republicans have a strong challenger for 2010, Aurora city councilman Ryan Frazier.  At present, Perlmutter is leading the fundraising chase 882k to 434k, that combined with the partisan lean of the district lead me to believe that a pickup isn’t likely here.

District PVI – D+4

Stephen’s Rating – Likely D

Prediction – Solid Dem Hold

New Mexico-1 – Martin Heinrich/Democrat – The Albuquerque-based 1st was a longtime land of enchanted frustration for the democrats as despite a democratic lean, the district was dominated by republicans for many years.  But opportunity came as incumbent Heather Wilson ran for the open Senate seat, and Martin Heinrich defeated his republican challenger by 12%.  Obama won here by 20% though, so he actually underperformed the top of the ticket, always a bad sign.  Luckily, the republican opposition doesn’t look so tough, former new mexico GOP vice chair Jon Barela is the likely republican nominee.  Heinrich is killing it in fundraising, having raised 1.13 million to Barela’s 293k.  This race is on the board officially, but I’d be stunned if Heinrich were to lose in November.

District PVI – D+5

Stephen’s Rating – Likely D

Prediction – Strong Dem Hold

New Mexico-2 – Harry Teague/Democrat – Here’s another big battleground for 2010.  The 2nd, which encompasses much of New Mexico’s southern desert landscape, usually leans republican, but Teague was able to pick up the seat when longtime incumbent Steve Pearce ran for the Senate and got crushed by Tom Udall.  Teague’s victory of 56-44 was strong considering Obama lost to McCain by 50-49.  Pearce is back for a run to reclaim his old seat, and he has railed against Teague’s “liberal” voting record, which has in fact been one of the more conservative in the democratic caucus.  The money race is fairly close at 1.07 million for Teague and 821k for Pearce.  This is another tough call to make, but at the end of the day I think Pearce is a really crappy campaigner, as evidenced by his horrific Senate run in 2008.  Therefore, Teague will win a close one.  Diane Denish leading the top of the ticket will help too.

District PVI – R+5

Stephen’s Rating – Toss Up

Prediction – Weak Dem Hold

New Mexico-3 – Ben Lujan/Democrat – The mountainous northern part of the state, Lujan won big in an open seat race here in 2008, and the opposition doesn’t look all that strong for 2010.  Plus, the democratic lean of the district makes this one safe.

District PVI – D+7

Stephen’s Rating – Solid D

Prediction – Solid Dem Hold

Utah-1 – Bob Bishop/Republican – Heading into Mormon country, Utah is one of the nation’s most conservative states, and this northern Utah district is the 13th most conservative in the country.  No problem for Bishop.  

District PVI – R+21

Stephen’s Rating – Solid R

Prediction – Solid Rep Hold

Utah-2 – Jim Matheson/Democrat – Utah’s answer to Texas’s Chet Edwards and Mississippi’s Gene Taylor, Jim Matheson has weathered several republican attempts to dislodge him, most notably the 2002 re-districting that was done solely to get rid of him by cutting out Salt Lake City’s west side and replacing it with eastern and southern Utah.  But Matheson remains, and he won by a huge 29% margin in 2008 while his district was a surprisingly close 58-40 spread for John McCain.  Still, you’d expect the republicans to put up a strong challenge in 2010.  Only token opposition is up there right now.  I’m nervous taking a district this conservative off the board entirely, but it’s hard to imagine any scenario in which Matheson loses this cycle.

District PVI – R+15

Stephen’s Rating – Solid D

Prediction – Solid Dem Hold

Utah-3 – Jason Chaffetz/Republican – This is the 7th most republican district in the country, and Chaffetz is a weapons-grade wingnut.  Pretty much a perfect match.

District PVI – R+26

Stephen’s Rating – Solid R

Prediction – Solid Rep Hold

Arizona-1 – Ann Kirkpatrick/Democrat – Kirkpatrick benefitted from a scandal-tainted incumbent retiring in 2008, but had to fight a bit of a home state vote for John McCain as she won this open seat by a 55-39 count.  Republicans claim her victory was scandal-induced, but the field is a bit unsettled in 2010.  The fundraising lead is held by dentist Paul Gosar, but former state senator Rusty Bowers could be a stronger name.  Kirkpatrick has banked 875k so far this cycle, so all things considered her standing looks pretty good.

District PVI – R+6

Stephen’s Rating – Likely D

Prediction – Solid Dem Hold

Arizona-2 – Trent Franks/Republican – Franks presides over largely republican territory in the state’s northwest and west central.  I think he’s safe.

District PVI – R+13

Stephen’s Rating – Solid R

Prediction – Solid Rep Hold

Arizona-3 – Open/Republican – This R-leaning seat in north Phoenix and it’s northern suburbs is open thanks to John Shadegg calling it quits.  The republican primary field is a free-for-all, including state representative Sam Crump, state senators Jim Waring and Pamela Gorman, Paradise Valley mayor Vernon Parker, and attorney Ben Quayle.  The democrats got a bit of bad news when their #1 choice, Phoenix mayor Phil Gordon decided not to run, but they got a very solid #2 in businessman John Hulburd, who already has a sizeable lead in the fundraising race.  That lead could become larger as the republican primary candidates beat each other up.  McCain won this district by a 56-42 count in 2008, so it’s a tough one for the democrats but not impossible.  If the GOP primary gets ugly then Hulburd might have a shot at pulling an upset.  

District PVI – R+9

Stephen’s Rating – Leans R

Prediction – Moderate Rep Hold

Arizona-4 – Ed Pastor/Democrat – This area consisting of downtown Phoenix, is the most liberal part of the state.  Easy hold for Pastor.

District PVI – D+13

Stephen’s Rating – Solid D

Prediction – Solid Dem Hold

Arizona-5 – Harry Mitchell/Democrat – This northeastern Maricopa county district is going to be the site of some serious fireworks in 2010, the question is who will be setting them off?  Mitchell won this seat by defeating uber-wingnut J.D. Hayworth in 2006, then held it against Maricopa County Treasurer David Schweikert last cycle.  Schweikert is running again, and he is fundraising fairly well at 405k so far, but the republican primary looks to be hotly contested.  Businessman Jim Ward and physician David Salvino are in, but of greater interest is the candidacy of former state representative Susan Bitter Smith, who was somewhat responsible for de-railing Schweikert’s 2008 run thanks to a brutally nasty primary.  This race is going to be a close one, but I have a feeling the environment won’t be a strong argument in Arizona, where McCain provided a good topline for the GOP in 2008.  

District PVI – R+5

Stephen’s Rating – Leans D

Prediction – Moderate Dem Hold

Arizona-6 – Jeff Flake/Republican – This is the most Republican district in Arizona, and Flake’s conservatism fits well here.  

District PVI – R+15

Stephen’s Rating – Solid R

Prediction – Solid Rep Hold

Arizona-7 – Raul Grijalva/Democrat – One of only two democratic PVI districts in Arizona, Grijalva is pretty much safe.

District PVI – D+6

Stephen’s Rating – Solid D

Prediction – Solid Dem Hold

Arizona-8 – Gabrielle Giffords/Democrat – Giffords won this seat in 2006 and defended it against a strong republican challenger in 2008, winning by 12%.  Her name was floated in both the Senate and gubernatorial races this year but she’s hanging in for re-election.  Giffords has fundraised with the best of them, banking 1.19 million this cycle.  The republican field is splintered and not all that impressive, as the top possible GOP candidates all passed on the race. For what its worth, Iraq war veteran Jesse Kelly holds the fundraising lead, but is behind the incumbent by about 1-5. To be honest, I think Giffords is a rising star in the democratic caucus, and I really don’t understand why so many pundits have this race as a big pickup opportunity for Team Red.  

District PVI – R+4

Stephen’s Rating – Likely D

Prediction – Solid Dem Hold

Nevada-1 – Shelley Berkley/Democrat – This seat, lying right in the heart of Las Vegas, is very democratic.  Berkley has never really had to fight much for her seat but this year looks to be very ugly for Democrats in Nevada.  Obama cleaned up here 64-34 and Berkley won by almost 40% that year, but 2008 might as well be 1908 when you consider how much the landscape has changed here.  Craig Lake Jr is the likely republican nominee and he is off to a decent fundraising start in the 250k range.  If you haven’t guessed by now, the only reason I even have this race in play is because of the double albatross at the top of the ticket, Harry Reid for Senate and Rory Reid for governor.  I still think Berkley’s going to win, but she’d better be willing to work because otherwise I could see this one becoming somewhat Coakley-esque.

District PVI – D+10

Stephen’s Rating – Likely D

Prediction – Strong Dem Hold

Nevada-2 – Dean Heller/Republican – This district consists of pretty much the whole state minus Las Vegas.  Heller won this seat in an open seat race in 2006 and held it by 10% in 2008.  The democratic opposition doesn’t look very strong this cycle which is a shame since Obama and McCain finished tied at 49% in 2008 and this district isn’t the republican stronghold it once was.

District PVI – R+5

Stephen’s Rating – Solid R

Prediction – Solid Rep Hold

Nevada-3 – Dina Titus/Democratic – The 3rd district, which consists mostly of the Vegas suburbs, has been a partisan battleground for many years.  Titus knocked off 3-term incumbent Jon Porter by a 47-42-11 plurality to win the seat, a bit of an underperformance against Obama’s 55-43 win over McCain.  Titus has fundraised very well at 993k so far this cycle, and the republican opposition is headed for a tough primary.  The leading candidates are former state senator Joe Heck and real estate investor Robert Lauer, neither of whom is over 200k raised.  However, this is a race where I don’t think fundraising is going to matter very much.  Las Vegas has gotten pounded, and I mean pounded by the recession, way more than your typical American city, which is also going to be an albatross for Berkley in NV-1.  Secondly, the Reid father-son pairing at the top of the ticket is going to really be a drag.  I like Titus, but sadly due to factors outside of her control, she’s fighting a battle she can’t win.  

District PVI – D+2

Stephen’s Rating – Toss Up

Prediction – Moderate Rep Pickup (23rd overall)

National Score – Rep +19

Idaho-1 – Walt Minnick/Democrat – I have a feeling that due to his conservative voting record and apparent popularity in the district, that Walt Minnick could be in better shape than some would suspect. (maybe similar to Bobby Bright in AL-2, which we found out about last week after I had already made my preliminary call there)  That being said, this is an extremely republican district, the 27th most conservative in the nation in fact, and Minnick only won here because former incumbent Bill Sali was a lunatic.  Former marine corps major Vaughn Ward is the leading candidate for the GOP, having been promoted by the NRCC’s “young guns” program.  Minnick is way ahead in fundraising with 1.16 million, a huge total, with Ward at 341k.  Maybe if the environment wasn’t as bad as it is, I’d stick to my suspicions and stick with Minnick to retain, but in the absence of any polling to corroborate my thoughts, I will defer to the PVI and give Team Red a pickup here.

District PVI – R+18

Stephen’s Rating – Toss Up

Prediction – Weak Rep Pickup (24th overall)

National Score – Rep +20

Idaho-2 – Mike Simpson/Republican – This is going to be an easy win for Simpson, as this part of Idaho is just as conservative as it’s counterpart.

District PVI – R+17

Stephen’s Rating – Solid R

Prediction – Solid Rep Hold

Oregon-1 – David Wu/Democrat – Wu went through the 2008 election without a republican challenger, and he romped while Obama fought to a 61-38 win over John McCain here.  Sports management consultant Robert Cornilles is in the race against Wu, but aside from being a self-funder, I don’t see much appeal around him.  

District PVI – D+8

Stephen’s Rating – Solid D

Prediction – Solid Dem Hold

Oregon-2 – Greg Walden/Republican – The lone republican in Oregon’s house delegation, Walden represents the eastern 2/3 of the state, which is rural and mostly conservative.  He’s safe.

District PVI – R+11

Stephen’s Rating – Solid R

Prediction – Solid Rep Hold

Oregon-3 – Earl Blumenauer/Democrat – This district, based in Portland, is a rather blue liberal bastion.  No republican is going to be winning here for quite some time.  

District PVI – D+19

Stephen’s Rating – Solid D

Prediction – Solid Dem Hold

Oregon-4 – Peter Defazio/Democrat – Republican hopes in the Eugene/Springfield-based 4th were pretty much dependent on Defazio running for the open gubernatorial seat.  But he declined that, and the republicans top candidate, Springfield mayor Sid Leiken, just hit the eject button on his candidacy.  

District PVI – D+2

Stephen’s Rating – Solid D

Prediction – Solid Dem Hold

Oregon-5 – Kurt Schrader/Democrat – If there’s going to be any activity in the Beaver/Duck State in 2010, it’ll probably be here.  Schrader won this district in a 2008 open seat race by 16% while Obama won the district by 11%, a remarkable turnaround considering that Bush carried this district twice.  State representative Scott Brunn is the likely republican nominee, but he’s got an uphill climb in both the money race and against an electorate that is moving pretty quickly to the left.  

District PVI – D+1

Stephen’s Rating – Likely D

Prediction – Strong Dem Hold

Washington-1 – Jay Inslee/Democrat – We turn our attention now to Washington state, where Inslee sits in a district of mostly Seattle’s northern suburbs.  A fairly democratic district, it shouldn’t be all that competitive in 2010.

District PVI – D+9

Stephen’s Rating – Solid D

Prediction – Solid Dem Hold

Washington-2 – Rick Larsen/Democrat – This district is less democratic than WA-1, but it doesn’t look as though Larsen has much to worry about.  There’s only one republican running against him and it’s somebody in the “some dude” category.  

District PVI – D+3

Stephen’s Rating – Solid D

Prediction – Solid Dem Hold

Washington-3 – Open/Democrat – The 3rd, which covers most of southwestern Washington, is going to be the site of some strong political fighting this fall as incumbent Brian Baird is retiring.  The primary fields look to be crowded.  The democratic primary will be contested by state representative Denny Heck, state senator Craig Pridemore, and Hispanic activist Maria Rodriguez-Salazar.  Heck is seen as the slight favorite at this point but it’s anyone’s game really.  On the republican side, retired marine David Hedrick, financial advisor David Castillo, and Washougal city councilman Jon Russell are in, but the prospective favorite is youthful state representative Jaime Herrera.  My feeling is, if Herrera does win the nomination, the repubs will probably score a pickup here, but if she loses the primary then the dems will probably hold the seat.  For now, I’m going with Team Red, but stay tuned on this one.

District PVI – Even

Stephen’s Rating – Toss Up

Prediction – Weak Rep Pickup (25th overall)

National Score – Rep +21  

Washington-4 – Doc Hastings/Republican – One of only two safe R seats in Washington and the most conservative seat in the state, Hastings is safe here.

District PVI – R+13

Stephen’s Rating – Solid R

Prediction – Solid Rep Hold

Washington-5 – Cathy McMorris-Rodgers/Republican – This western Washington district was actually pretty close in 2008 as McCain beat Obama 52-46, but Rodgers steamrolled to a big win.  She’s safe.

District PVI – R+7

Stephen’s Rating – Solid R

Prediction – Solid Rep Hold

Washington-6 – Norm Dicks/Democrat – The long serving Dicks, representing this district on the Olympia peninsula, is very solidly entrenched and shouldn’t have anything to worry about here.

District PVI – D+5

Stephen’s Rating – Solid D

Prediction – Solid Dem Hold

Washington-7 – Jim McDermott/Democrat – This district is centered around Seattle and is one of the country’s most democratic.  Safe.

District PVI – D+31

Stephen’s Rating – Solid D

Prediction – Solid Dem Hold

Washington-8 – Dave Reichert/Republican – One of the few incumbents that have survived the democratic onslaught in recent years within a democratic district, Reichert is used to having to fight for re-election, and this year looks no different.  The expected democratic candidate, Suzan Delbene, has actually outraised Reichert 1.04 million to 985k and leads him by an even wider margin in cash on hand.  It’s uncertain how well of a campaigner Delbene is, and if she’ll be able to blunt Reichert’s obvious popularity in the district, but with a democratic leaning electorate and a cash advantage, she’s got the tools necessary to pull off an upset.  This one is going to be one to watch for sure.  Sidebar: in the event that Reichert pulls off another win in 2010, redistricting is going to be a major problem for him as the democrats hold the hammer (unless WA does independent redistricting, I’m not sure).

District PVI – D+3

Stephen’s Rating – Toss Up

Prediction – Weak Rep Hold

Washington-9 – Adam Smith/Democrat – Smith’s southern Puget Sound based district is fairly democratic for the most part, and he’s very well entrenched.  Methinks he’s safe.

District PVI – D+5

Stephen’s Rating – Solid D

Prediction – Solid Dem Hold

Alaska-1 – Don Young/Republican – Young shocked many when he got past Ethan Berkowitz despite the ethical clouds hanging over his head, perhaps the result of Sarah Palin’s coattails at the top of the ticket.  (Which consequently nearly saved Ted Stevens against Mark Begich in the Senate race)  For what it’s worth, he’s facing a primary challenge from Andrew Halcro.  The only democrat in the race is state representative Harry Crawford, who I admittedly don’t know much about.  There’s always the chance that Young could get swept down by corruption ahead of the election, but otherwise I think this seat stays red.

District PVI – R+13

Stephen’s Rating – Likely R

Prediction – Strong Rep Hold

Region Recap – There’s a lot of competitiveness in the mountain states this year, and ultimately I see a lot of the toss up races not going our way, at least not at the moment.  I have the republicans picking up 4 seats, CO-4, NV-3, ID-1, and WA-3, bringing them to 25 total pickups and a national score of Rep +21 with only one region to go.  The Democrats really don’t have many good opportunities at pickups, with AZ-3 and WA-8 being the best opportunities.  

Final stop…The Pacific Coast…next time