Analysis of Illinois Statewide Races

The statewide races up in 2010 are Senate; Governor; Secretary of State; Attorney General; Treasurer; and Comptroller.  All are currently held by Democrats.  Two (SOS-White and AG-Madigan) are safe.  Of the remaining four seats, I expect Republicans to pick up one (Comptroller – OPEN (Hynes)).

SENATE – OPEN (ROLAND BURRIS) – DEMOCRAT

RATING: TOSSUP/TILT DEMOCRATIC HOLD

Democrat Alexi Giannoulias is the current Illinois Treasurer.  He is only 33 years old.  His base is Chicago.  Giannoulias played professional basketball in Greece, then returned to Chicago to work as an executive at Broadway Bank, the Giannoulias family business, which is now on the verge of an FDIC takeover.  Giannoulias defeated Republican Christine Radogno for State Treasurer by 13% in 2006.  He won the 2010 Democratic primary for U.S. Senate by 5% over David Hoffman.

Republican Mark Kirk currently represents Illinois’s 10th congressional district, in the Chicago suburbs.  Prior to that, he served as a Counsel to the House International Relations Committee.  He won his House seat by 2.5% in 2000.  He was re-elected easily in 2002 and 2004 before winning two tough races by 6% each against business consultant Dan Seals in 2006 and 2008.  Kirk had an ostensibly amicable divorce from his wife last year.  Kirk easily won a crowded 2010 Republican primary.

Giannoulias had $963,000 on hand at the end of January 13, 2010, and Kirk had $3.2 million.

The recent polls of this race show:

Rasmussen 3/10/10 – Giannoulias 44, Kirk 41

Research 2000 2/24/10 – Giannoulias 43, Kirk 36

Rasmussen 2/3/10 – Kirk 46, Giannoulias 40

PPP 1/25/10 – Giannoulias 42, Kirk 34

There seems to be an emerging media narrative of doom for Giannoulias, both locally and nationally, centered around the collapse of his family bank.  Hopefully the March 9, 2010 Rasmussen poll will put some of that to rest.  The Democratic machine and base in Illinois are strong, and it is very difficult for Republicans to win there statewide.  They have not done so since Judy Baar Topinka’s re-election for a third term as State Treasurer in 2002.  I expect Giannoulias to pull out a tough race.

GOVERNOR – PAT QUINN – DEMOCRAT

RATING: LEAN DEMOCRATIC HOLD

Democrat Pat Quinn is the sitting governor.  His base is Chicago.  He has a long electoral record in Illinois, with mixed results.  He lost a primary for Treasurer in 1986.  He was then elected Treasurer in 1990, but decided to forego a second term in order to take on his political rival, George Ryan, for Secretary of State in 1994.  He lost that race.  He lost the 1996 primary for United States Senate against Dick Durbin.  He then lost the 1998 primary for Lieutenant Governor to Mary Lou Kearns in 1998 by less than 1500 votes.  In 2002, he was elected Lieutenant Governor on a ticket with Rod Blagojevich.  The ticket was re-elected in 2006.  However, Quinn became estranged from Blagojevich, so much so that Blagojevich publicly announced that Quinn was not part of the administration in 2006.  The two rarely spoke after that.  Quinn became governor in January of last year when Blagojevich was removed from office.  He won the Democratic primary by less than one percent over Comptroller Dan Hynes.  Quinn’s running mate will be selected by the Democratic party.

Republican Bill Brady is a State Senator from the Bloomington area.  He is co-owner of a large homebuilding company.  He served in the Illinois House for eight years before being appointed to the State Senate in 2002.  He finished a distant third in the 2006 Republican primary for Governor.  He won a crowded 2010 Republican primary by less than 200 votes.  His running mate is Jason Plummer, a lumber company executive from Madison County, in the St. Louis exurbs.

Quinn had $1.5 million on hand at the end of 2009, while Brady had $192,000.

The recent polls of this race show:

Rasmussen 3/9 – Brady 47, Quinn 37

Daily Kos 2/24 – Quinn 47, Brady 32

Illinois Poll 2/7 – Quinn 42, Brady 31

It is worth noting that Rasmussen had this race pegged for Quinn 45-30 (mighty consistent with the current Daily Kos and Illinois poll findings) on December 14, 2009.  So that’s a 25-point swing for Brady!  I guess winning 20% of the vote in a five-way primary will do that for you.

I like the dynamics of this race for Quinn.  Quinn should run strong in Chicago, and the Republican ticket consists of two solid conservatives from downstate.  Quinn also appears to have a money advantage.  I expect a Quinn win by high single digits, if not more.

TREASURER – OPEN (ALEXI GIANNOULIAS) – DEMOCRAT

RATING: LEAN DEMOCRATIC HOLD

Democrat Robin Kelly is currently Chief of Staff to Treasurer Alexi Giannoulias.  She is African-American.  Her base is Chicago, where she was a community activist.  She served in the Illinois House for four years prior to her appointment at Treasury.  She won the Democratic primary by 16% over Justin Oberman.

Republican Dan Rutherford is a State Senator from Livingston County in Central Illinois.  He was an executive for a home services company.  He served in the Illinois House for ten years before his election to the Senate in 2002.  He lost a 2006 challenge to Jesse White for Secretary of State by 28%.

Kelly had $81,000 on hand at the end of 2009, while Rutherford had $568,000.

This one is a tough call.  Rutherford has a lot of money to spend, but he seems to have an overly conservative profile for Illinois.  It is also unclear what his specific qualifications for the job are, whereas Kelly has has worked in the Treasurer’s office since 2007.  Kelly needs to pick up the fundraising.  I expect Kelly to pull this out because of the Democratic lean of Illinois.

COMPTROLLER – OPEN (DAN HYNES) – DEMOCRAT

RATING: LEAN REPUBLICAN PICKUP

Democrat David Miller is a State Representative from the Chicago suburbs.  He is African-American, and a dentist by trade.  He was elected to the Illinois House in 2000.  He won the Democratic primary over Raja Krishnamoorthi by less than one percent.

Republican Judy Baar Topinka is the last Republican to win a statewide office in Illinois.  Her base is the Chicago suburbs, where she was a journalist and public relations consultant.  She served in the Illinois House from 1981 to 1985 and in the Illinois Senate from 1985 to 1995.  She was elected treasurer in 1994 by 2%, re-elected by 2% in 1998, and re-elected by 12% in 2002.  She lost a 2006 challenge to Governor Rod Blagojevich by 9%.  She easily won a crowded 2010 Republican primary for Comptroller.

Miller had $389,000 on hand at the end of 2009, while Topinka had $211,000.

I expect Topinka to win this by high single digits, and possibly more.  She is a relatively big name in Illinois politics and a proven winner in the past.  Miller appears to be a good fundraiser, but it is not clear that he has the profile to defeat Topinka statewide in a tough year.