• DE-Sen: Good news on the cat fud front, as according to the press release: “O’Donnell announcement adds Delaware to growing list of states hosting conservative insurgencies against liberal Republican incumbents.” Activist and occasional Fox News commentator Christine O’Donnell is making official today that she’s running in the Republican Senate primary against Rep. Mike Castle (although she’s been “unofficially” running for months), who, of course, is neither liberal nor incumbent. O’Donnell lost the 2006 Republican Senate primary and opposed Joe Biden in 2008, losing 65-35.
• NV-Sen: Danny Tarkanian is charging Harry Reid with shenanigans, accusing him of putting Tea Party candidate Jon Ashjian up to running in the race. Tarkanian’s proof? “No one in the Tea Party knows who he is. He didn’t know the principles of the Tea Party.” He’s also accusing Reid’s camp of picking Ashjian in particular because, like Tarkanian, he’s Armenian, and that’ll split the Armenian vote.
• OR-Sen (pdf): A few people (perhaps those who’ve never heard of Rasmussen before) seemed caught off guard when Rasmussen found that Ron Wyden wasn’t breaking 50% against law professor Jim Huffman. Wyden just released an internal poll via Grove Insight showing him in better position against Huffman: 53-23 (with 5% for the Libertarian candidate). He also polls almost the same against the state’s top Republicans, who at any rate (with filing day having passed) won’t be running against him: state Sen. Jason Atkinson (53-22) and Rep. Greg Walden (52-24).
• WA-Sen: The Hill has a little more… well, I’d hesitate to say detail, as that implies there’s some substance there… on the prospect of a Dino Rossi run for Senate, with various anonymous GOP sources saying that Rossi’s “thanks but no thanks” attitude has “changed in recent weeks,” and that if there’s a 1-10 scale of being likely to run for office, Rossi’s at a 3.
• AL-Gov: Bradley Byrne, the Republican former state community colleges chancellor, got an endorsement from Jeb Bush, which may help shore up some more conservative votes in a primary that includes right-wing judge Roy Moore. Bush has been active on the endorsements front lately, giving his imprimatur to Wisconsin’s Scott Walker and to John McCain as well.
• CA-Gov: This is kind of a strange media strategy: kicking out reporters for daring to do their jobs and ask questions of you at a scheduled appearance. It all seems to be part of the plan for Meg Whitman, though: silence from the candidate, and let the ads do the talking.
• HI-Gov: Recently-resigned Rep. Neil Abercrombie has a real race on his hands to get out of the Democratic gubernatorial primary: his main rival, Honolulu mayor Mufi Hannemann, just got the endorsement of the state’s largest union, the ILWU (the Longshoremen). Abercrombie can still boast a new union endorsement of his own from the IBEW.
• MA-Gov: There seems to be a lot of smoke coming out from under the hood of Christy Mihos’s campaign for the Republican gubernatorial nomination, as seen not only in dwindling poll numbers but now the departure of campaign manager Joe Manzoli. Manzoli claims to be owed $40K in back pay but says that wasn’t the reason for his departure, while Mihos bounced a check from himself to his campaign fund in January.
• ME-Gov: Here’s a jolt of life in the sleepy Maine governor’s race, one of the least-noticed and least clear-cut races in the country. Bill Clinton weighed in, offering an endorsement to state Senate president Libby Mitchell in the Democratic primary.
• NY-Gov: One more snap poll on David Paterson’s perilous political predicament today. It seems like there’s been nothing but noise in these polls, with very wide-ranging responses on whether Paterson should resign or stay, but if you follow the trendlines from today’s Quinnipiac poll back to the previous one, it looks like his position is stabilizing. 50% say he should stay, and 39% say he should resign (compared with 46-42 last seek), although is approval is still awful at 21/61.
• CT-04: One more Republican entrant in the crowded field to take on freshman Rep. Jim Himes in the 4th, with the entry of Easton First Selectman Tom Herrmann. First Selectman is analogous to mayor in Connecticut municipalities that are organized as towns, not cities, but in his spare time he’s a managing director at a private equity firm (so presumably he has some money to burn). The GOP field in the 4th is dominated by state Sen. Dan Debicella and former state Sen. Rob Russo.
• GA-07: We won’t have Ralph Reed to kick around – this cycle, at least. As expected, he won’t run in the GOP primary to fill outgoing Rep. John Linder’s seat. (D)
• NC-08: One other Republican campaign manager hit the trail, getting out of the seeming trainwreck that is the campaign of Tim d’Annunzio in the 8th. Apparently the leading candidate there by virtue of his self-funding ability, d’Annunzio made waves last month for wading into the comments section of the local newspaper – and now his former manager, Jack Hawke, seems to have had enough with d’Annunzio’s lack of message discipline, with d’Annunzio storming off the stage during a recent candidate forum and also with his postings to the end-times-focused “Christ’s War” blog.
• VA-11: Here’s a warning flare from a race that’s not really on too many people’s radars: Rep. Gerry Connolly’s first re-election in the 11th. His rematch opponent, home inspection firm owner Keith Fimian, is boasting of an internal poll (from McLaughlin) showing him beating Connolly 40-35. Considering that Connolly already beat Fimian by 12 points in 2008, while Barack Obama was carrying the 11th by 15, that’s pushing the edges of credulity, but certainly indicates this race needs monitoring. (And of course, Fimian may not even survive his primary, where he matches up against Fairfax Co. Supervisor Pat Herrity.)
• IL-Lt. Gov.: In an attempt to clear the smoke out of the back room, IL Dems have opened up their process for selecting a replacement lieutenant governor candidate. (You may recall that primary winner Scott Lee Cohen dropped out last month.) You can apply via email – and over 200 people have so far. (D)
• Filings: There’s a little more on the Arkansas filings fail by the GOP: they left uncontested 8 of the 17 state Senate seats up for grabs, making it mathematically impossible for them to retake the Senate, and also left 44 of the 100 House seats and the Attorney General’s race uncontested. Filing deadlines passed yesterday in Pennsylvania and Oregon, without any major surprises. In Pennsylvania, there weren’t any last-minute entries in the Senate or Governor’s races; the big story may be the LG race, with 12 different candidates, including a last-minute entry by Republican state Rep. Daryl Metcalfe. The Republican field in the 6th seems to have vaporized at the last moment, leaving Rep. Jim Gerlach opposed only by teabagger Patrick Sellers; Manan Trivedi and Doug Pike are the only Dems there.
In Oregon, there was a brief hubbub that Steve Novick might run for Multnomah County Chair, just vacated by newly appointed state Treasurer Ted Wheeler, but alas, it wasn’t to be; he threw his support to County Commissioner Jeff Cogen for the job. Blue Oregon also looks at the state Senate and House landscapes; Republicans fared better here, leaving only 1 Senate race and 1 House race unfilled (Dems left 3 House races empty). Of the 16 Senate seats up this year, Dems are defending 12 of them, but a lot of them are dark-blue; the main one to watch is SD-26, an exurban/rural open seat being vacated by Rick Metsger (running in the Treasurer special election) where Dem state Rep. Brent Barton faces GOP Hood River Co. Commissioner Chuck Thomsen. (Dems control the Senate 18-12.)
• Fundraising: While we at SSP are often rather blunt about Congressional Dems’ need to give to their campaign committees, at least they’re doing a better job of it than their GOP counterparts. Reid Wilson crunches the numbers and finds out that Dem House members have given $15.7 million to the DCCC while GOPers have given the NRCC only $4.7 million. The disparity is greater on the Senate side, where Senate Dems have given the DSCC $2.6 million but the NRSC has gotten only $450K.
• Passages: We’re saddened to report the death of Doris “Granny D” Haddock, the 2004 candidate for Senate in New Hampshire. Haddock was 100; she was 94 when she challenged Judd Gregg in his most recent re-election. She’s probably best known for walking across the country to support campaign finance reform at the age of 89.
• Social media: Like Swing State Project, but does your head start to hurt after you get past 140 characters? Sign up to get SSP wisdom in its most condensed form, via our Twitter feed or on Facebook.
Ralph Reed, in Iowa last night for an Iowa Christian Alliance fundraiser: Obama win in Iowa was a large Harlem Globetrotters game & GOP were the team that showed up to get beat.
??
Iowa Independent had a good write-up of Reed’s speech.
There was a surprise, in my view: the surprising last-minute entry of State Sen. Anthony Williams, who may inject some life in an otherwise sleepy race. Onorato, Wagner, and Hoeffel don’t seem to be exciting anybody (though I like Hoeffel a lot), while Wagner seems to be really jazzing the base. Maybe this guy has a shot after all.
Rasmussen (yes Rasmussen) has Alexi Giannoulias holding a 44% to 41% lead over Mark Kirk.
http://www.rasmussenreports.co…
and as with the FL poll, if an insurgent über conservative gets the nomination, it gives the dems a chance.
Go O’Donnell!
In Nevada?
You won’t see Rossi enter the Senate race this cycle because Murray already has Boeing money sewed up. Boeing wants and needs to cultivate Dicks. That means for the second election cycle in a row Boeing will give more money to Washington Democrats than Republicans. Weyerhaeuser supported Rossi in both his runs for governor but has already weighed in for Murray as far as the Senate seat is concerned. Perhaps they have decided that Rossi can win polls but not elections.
Watch for Rossi to challenge Cantwell. By that time his children will be older and he will have erased his substantial campaign debt.
Here’s what Hayhurst had to say yesterday during an interview with an online media site:
I hate to see Dems trashing the health care bill, but Hayhurst’s running in a D+14 district where he’s got to act like Walt Minnick to have any chance. What’s disappointing is the phrasing he chose. When you say “The Republicans are probably right,” you get people to ask, well, if the Republicans are right, why not just vote for Souder again? Not a good move by Hayhurst.
I’m sure they are genuine polls but the clue is behind the low numbers. Remember the one Harmer had for the special election claiming he was ahead under certain circumstances? The huge Hoffman leads before Scozzafava dropped out? Same deal here. I don’t and never will trust them. I’m sure the other side thinks the same of Dem polling only our guys actually have a decent record of accuracy – PPP, Anzalone-Liszt etc.
Fimian is the candidate Dems should root for in the primary. He’s been cozying up to the teabaggers since his loss in 2008, which won’t fly well with the moderate voters of the 11th district. Herrity would probably make it close; I think Connolly would easily dispatch Fimian.
the documentary of Granny D’s Senate campaign. It’s a fascinating look at how a longshot, outsider campaign for office is run.
I finally heard a Meg Whitman ad. I expect she does not run many in the Bay Area for obvious reasons. It was these guys singing a 60’s country song that basically said, “Don’t elect Steve Poizner.” They also commented on how Poizner kept voting to increase taxes while Meg Whitman did not. It was a pretty funny ad. A lady nearby muttered something about mud slinging.
I do not see why Whitman needs to go negative. She is leading in basically every poll. She has many positives because unlike some other high tech CEO (you know who they are,) Whitman did not run her company to the ground.
No, I’m not supporting Whitman even though I respect her.
Okay, I must share this wonderful “moneybomb” website set up by one of the Republicans running here:
http://www.scotttaylormoneybom…
There are two problems with this. First, there’s no running total, so who knows how much he’s raised? Second, “OMG Scott Rigell gave money to Obama” is a pretty lame reason to request money. I’ve met Scott Taylor before, and he’s fairly thoughtful for a Republican (not to mention ruggedly handsome), but he’s really getting close to joining the city’s cast of ridiculous perennial candidates.
Senate rankings?
http://www.fivethirtyeight.com…
I have a slightly different take.
1. ND
2. AR
3. DE
4. NV
5. CO
6. IN
7. PA
8. IL
9. MO
10. OH
11. NH
mild LOL moment for your enjoyment.
http://blogs.cqpolitics.com/ey…
Could it be that it isn’t a principled movement, but a loose conglomeration of mainstream Republicans, anti-tax fanatics, racists, conspiracists and the mentally ill?
Could it be that it isn’t a principled movement, but a loose conglomeration of mainstream Republicans, anti-tax fanatics, racists, conspiracists and the mentally ill?