The majority in the Illinois State Senate is not in play, even mathematically. The Democrats currently hold a 37-22 supermajority in the 59-member chamber. There are 47 seats either not up for re-election or unopposed. Democrats hold 30 of those seats, which is sufficient for a bare, one-vote majority even if Republicans win every contested seat (which will not happen). The drama this year is whether Democrats maintain their 60% supermajority, which is required to override a gubernatorial veto. That would, of course, become especially relevant if Republican Bill Brady manages to win the governor’s mansion. Republicans only need two seats to defeat the Democratic supermajority. There are 12 contested seats, 7 Democratic and 5 Republican. Of these, 2 Democratic seats (07-Steans and 52-Frerichs) are safe, and 3 Republican seats (25-Lauzen, 28-Millner, and 58-Luechtefeld) are safe. Of the remaining 6 competitive races, I predict that Republicans pick up two seats (districts 22 and 31), narrowly defeating the current supermajority:
DISTRICT 10 – OPEN (JAMES DELEO) – DEMOCRAT
RATING: LEAN DEMOCRATIC HOLD
This is a Chicago district that was created to elect a Democrat. Outgoing Democratic State Senator James DeLeo had held the seat easily since 1993.
Democrat John Mulroe is a Chicago attorney and CPA. He narrowly lost a 2008 challenge to a sitting Circuit Judge. He easily won a crowded primary.
Republican Brian Doherty has been a Chicago Alderman since 1993. He is popular, and is considered the only viable Republican candidate in this district. Doherty’s Alderman position, aside from being safe, pays twice as much as the State Senate. The good news for Doherty is that he gets to keep it if he loses.
As of the end of 2009, Mulroe had $25,000 on hand, while Doherty had $16,000.
Doherty should make this a race, but the blue lean of the district should carry Mulroe.
DISTRICT 22 – MICHAEL NOLAND – DEMOCRAT
RATING: LEAN REPUBLICAN PICKUP
This district is based in the Western suburbs of Chicago.
Democrat Michael Noland is the sitting State Senator. He ran unsuccessfully for the Illinois House in 2002 and 2004, the second time losing by less than 400 votes. In 2005, he made an unsuccessful run for Elgin City Council. He was elected to this seat in 2006 by 8% over Steamwood Mayor Billie Roth. He replaced Steve Rauschenberger, who had vacated the seat to run for Lieutenant Governor.
Rauschenberger is now looking to take his seat back. He had held the seat from 1993 to 2007, when he vacated it for the aforesaid run for Lieutenant Governor. He had also lost a Republican primary for U.S. Senate in 2004. He has worked as a lobbyist since leaving office.
As of the end of 2009, Noland had $8,000 on hand, while Rauschenberger had $44,000.
In a Republican year and with a cash advantage, I expect Rauschenberger to win a tough race. Rauschenberger’s recent work as a lobbyist will be fodder for Noland attacks, however.
DISTRICT 31 – MICHAEL BOND – DEMOCRAT
RATING: LEAN REPUBLICAN PICKUP
This seat is in a historically Republican district in the outer Northern Chicago exurbs.
Democrat Michael Bond is the sitting State Senator. He was an insurance executive prior to his election to the Senate in 2006. The stars aligned for Bond in winning the seat. Republican incumbent Adeline Jay Geo-Karis was defeated in a primary by Sue Simpson. Geo-Karis promptly endorsed Bond and actively supported his campaign. Bond defeated Simpson by 2%.
Republican Suzi Schmidt has served on the Lake County Board since 1988, and has served as its Chair since 2000.
As of the end of 2009, Bond had $21,000 on hand, while Schmidt had $42,000. Bond closed the gap some in January, reporting nearly $11,000 in large contributions.
Schmidt should have the advantage here in a Republican year. Bond’s election in 2006 was the result of an unlikely series of events. Schmidt has a clear shot at Bond this time, has a cash on hand advantage, and has a Republican wind at her back.
DISTRICT 34 – DAVE SYVERSON – REPUBLICAN
RATING: VERY LIKELY REPUBLICAN HOLD
This district is based in Rockford, in North Central Illinois. This territory has become considerably more favorable to Democrats in recent years.
Republican Dave Syverson is the sitting State Senator. He is an insurance broker by trade. He has held the seat since 1993. Syverson received a relatively strong challenge in 2006, winning 56-44 over Winnebago County Democratic Chair David Lewandowski. He had been unopposed in 1998 and 2002.
Democrat Jennifer Cacciapaglia is the Rockford City Attorney. Her campaign and fundraising have been stalled by undisclosed medical issues.
As of the end of 2009, Syverson had $45,000 on hand, while Cacciapaglia had $6,000.
Cacciapaglia could have been a serious threat to Syverson, but is playing from behind now. Syverson is entrenched, and will likely win again.
DISTRICT 40 – TOI HUTCHINSON – DEMOCRAT
RATING: LEAN TO LIKELY DEMOCRATIC HOLD
This district covers part of Southeast Cook County and extends well into the Southern Chicago exurbs.
Democrat Toi Hutchinson is the sitting State Senator. She is African-American. She was appointed to the seat in 2009 when her predecessor, Debbie Halvorson, took office in the U.S. Congress. She had been Halvorson’s Chief of Staff since 2004.
Republican Adam Baumgartner is a 28-year old businessman. He was elected to the Peotone School Board in 2003. He does not seem to have a campaign website.
As of the end of 2009, Hutchinson had $43,000 on hand, and added another $18,000 in large contributions in January. Baumgartner had not filed a financial report for the 2009 year-end, but had $35,000 in large contributions in January, including a whopping $25,000 from the International Union of Operational Engineers.
This district looks like it leans Democratic. I would expect that Obama won it comfortably. My rough estimate shows that it is approximately 67% white, 23% black, and 8% Hispanic. Baumgartner is getting the corporate and union backing to make this competitive, but Hutchinson should have an edge based on partisanship.
DISTRICT 49 – DEANNA DEMUZIO – DEMOCRAT
RATING: LIKELY DEMOCRATIC HOLD
This district covers a broad swath northeast of St. Louis, from the Mississippi river to Central Illinois. It appears to cover territory that McCain won over Obama in 2008, though not overwhelmingly.
Democrat Deanna Demuzio is the sitting State Senator. She was appointed to this seat in 2004 after the death of her husband Vince Demuzio, the Majority Leader of the Illinois Senate. She was unopposed in a 2004 special election to complete the term of Mr. Demuzio, and was re-elected by 20% in 2006.
Republican Sam McCann owns a homebuilding company.
As of the end of 2009, Demuzio had $83,000 on hand, while McCann had $20,000.
The Demuzio family name is clearly strong in this district, in spite of the Republican nature of the area at the presidential level. I rate this “likely” rather than “safe” because McCann has raised some decent money and because of the Republican tilt of the district.
DISTRICT 51 – KYLE MCCARTER – REPUBLICAN
RATING: LEAN REPUBLICAN HOLD
This district forms a backwards “L” from St. Clair County (St. Louis suburbs) to Macon County (Decatur) in Central Illinois. It appears to be mostly Republican territory.
Republican Kyle McCarter is the sitting State Senator. For eight years, he has been a member of the St. Clair County board, in the Southwest extreme of the district. He is also the owner of a local manufacturing company that outsources jobs. He was appointed to this seat last year when Senate Minority Leader Frank Watson stepped down for health reasons.
Democrat Tim Dudley is a realtor by trade. His base is Decatur, in the extreme Northeastern part of the district. Dudley was appointed to the Macon County Board in 2007, and was elected to a full term on the Board in 2008. He is backed by the AFL-CIO and the Illinois Federation of Teachers. He easily defeated Amy Bliefnick in the primary.
As of the end of 2009, McCarter had $53,000 on hand, while Dudley had $26,000. Dudley added another $8,000 in large contributions in January.
This could be an interesting race, but I suspect McCarter will hold the seat in a Republican year. However, Dudley will try to make an issue of McCarter’s outsourcing in a district where unions are influential. This is also going to be an interesting battle of disparate geographic bases in an oddly-shaped district.