PA-Sen, PA-Gov: Specter Leads Toomey, Sestak Slips Behind

Research 2000 has an expansive new look at the Pennsylvania scene for the Great Orange Satan. Let’s pop open the hood.

First, PA-Sen (3/8-10, likely voters, 8/10-12/2009 in parens):

Arlen Specter (D-inc): 51 (48)

Joe Sestak (D): 32 (33)

Undecided: 17 (19)

(MoE: ±5%)

Arlen Specter (D-inc): 47 (45)

Pat Toomey (R): 41 (40)

Joe Sestak (D): 39 (42)

Pat Toomey (R): 42 (41)

(MoE: ±4%)

PA-Gov (no trend lines):

Dan Onorato (D): 19

Joe Hoeffel (D): 12

Jack Wagner (D): 10

Anthony Williams (D): 3

Undecided: 56

(MoE: ±5%)

Dan Onorato (D): 34

Tom Corbett (R): 40

Joe Hoeffel (D): 31

Tom Corbett (R): 41

Jack Wagner (D): 32

Tom Corbett (R): 41

Anthony Williams (D): 19

Tom Corbett (R): 47

(MoE: ±4%)

All around, these numbers closely resemble Quinnipiac’s recent work in the state, making this the second recent poll suggesting that Specter can still win the general election. The only key difference is the slight advantage that Quinnipiac gives to Onorato relative to his gubernatorial primary-mates in the general election. Quinnipiac essentially found him in the same starting position as the likes of Hoeffel and Wagner.

12 thoughts on “PA-Sen, PA-Gov: Specter Leads Toomey, Sestak Slips Behind”

  2. It’s looking more and more like Specter made the right call in abandoning the GOP ship.  I can’t blame him.  I really hope he wins the primary so he can put Toomey away…again.  A Toomey defeat is my ultimate goal.  Anything to hurt the Club for Growth sounds like a good plan.  If Sestak comes back and defeats Specter, I’ll pull for Sestak.

  3. I’d have figured he’d have a fairly high floor of Democrats who don’t trust Specter.  Is Sestak running a bad campaign, is Specter running a good one, or is it something else?

  4. Sestak’s a good man and a patriot, but I have to question whether working for the guy as a staffer sounds that great even though I’ve heard Arlen can be an asshole as well.  

  5. that irks me is that the two pollsters that have surveyed this race in recent days are the two most democratic leaning.  That being said, I still think this is only the 8th most likely republican pickup, behind ND, DE, AR, NV, CO, IN, and IL in that order.  

    I just refuse to believe that Toomey, who couldn’t win among republican primary voters in 2004, would win among ALL voters in 2010.  

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