The Upper South has previously been defined as Kentucky, Tennessee, West Virginia, Virginia, and North Carolina. I am a native of this region (North Carolina), and the one thing I want to emphasize is that this region is continually evolving. Back in 1992 and 1996, WV, KY, and TN supported the Democratic Presidential Candidate while NC and VA supported the Republican presidential candidate. In 2008, these states switched their support: KY, TN, and WV supported McCain while NC and VA supported Obama. Yes, two great Southerners named Al Gore and Bill Clinton were on the 1992 and 1996 Presidential ticket, which partially explains why KY, TN and WV voted Democratic, but 4 years later, in 2000, Al Gore lost all three of these states.
This region is comprised of two distinct areas: VA/NC, where we are seeing considerable population growth, and WV/KY/TN, where population growth is slow.
House Representation Realignment
In 1960, the Democrats occupied roughly 60% of all of the House Seats. I have inserted selected final results of certain general elections.
After each US House election, Upper South
1960: 37(D), 8(R)
1964: 33(D), 9(R)
1966: 27(D), 15(R)
1970: 26(D), 16(R)
1972: 22(D), 18(R)
1974: 28(D), 12(R)
1978: 26(D), 14(R)
1980: 19(D), 21(R)
1982: 27(D), 14(R)
1992: 28(D), 13(R)
1994: 19(D), 22(R)
2000: 16(D), 25(R)
2004: 17(D), 25(R)
2006: 19(D), 23(R)
2008: 23(D), 19(R)
After reviewing this data, I determined that this area is very sensitive towards “wave” elections, such as 1966, 1974, 1980, 1982, 1994, and 2006/2008. When measuring the mood of the National electorate, we probably should give special consideration to this region.
After each US Senate election, Upper South
1960: 8(D), 2(R)
1964: 8(D), 2(R)
1966: 7(D), 3(R)
1970: 6(D), 4(R)
1972: 5(D), 5(R)
1974: 6(D), 4(R)
1978: 7(D), 3(R)
1980: 6(D), 4(R)
1982: 5(D), 5(R)
1992: 6(D), 4(R)
1994: 4(D), 6(R)
2000: 3(D), 7(R)
2004: 2(D), 8(R)
2006: 3(D), 7(R)
2008: 5(D), 5(R)
Fifty years ago, this area was dominated by the Democrats. Both Republicans represented KY, and both were fairly moderate for that period of time. The Democrats included Sam Ervin, Everett Jordan, Robert Byrd, Willis Robertson, and Harry Byrd, all of whom were initially against the Civil Rights movement. By 1972, with the election of Jesse Helms, the Republicans and Democrats split control of this region, probably on the strength of Richard Nixon. After the Watergate fiasco and having a Southerner (Jimmy Carter) as President, the Democrats regained some strength, maintaining a slight advantage thru 1992. In 1994, with many clouds of uncertainty around Bill Clinton’s administration, the Republicans gained the upper hand. By 2004, the only 2 Democratic Senators in the Upper South were Jay Rockefeller and Robert Byrd. As a result of the Bush administration’s problems with the Iraq War/Ecomony/Ethics issues, the Democrats gained some momentum, and by 2008 this region was split in half between the GOP and the Democrats.
Conclusions
Neither the Democrats nor the Republicans have a strong foothold in this region. KY and TN may have 2 GOP senators, but both state governors are currently Democrats. West Virginia might have two Democratic Senators and a Democratic Governor, but they have taken a sharp turn to the right in Presidential elections. Virginia also has two Democratic Senators, but the Commonwealth just elected a Republican Governor. NC, the only state in this region that has 1 Democratic Senator and 1 Republican Senator, has for the first time in 32 years supported a Democratic Presidential candidate, albeit a narrow margin.
2010 will be a pivotal year for this region. The western portion of the Upper South might see a couple of house seats switching hands to the Republicans. Virginia has several Democratic seats that Republicans might win (VA-02, VA-05, and possibly VA-09 and VA-11). We should closely monitor the house seats in this area for signs of trouble for the Dems. I feel that if the Dems only lose 2-3 Upper South house seats in 2010, we will be just fine. Luckily for the Dems, none of the 5 Democratic Senators are up for reelection.
I had never clicked on it before. Would be interesting (though a momentous undertaking) to look at state legislatures, particularly in the South, where it seems to me the trend away from the Dems has been slower than at the federal level.
I would actually split these up since there is clearly a diverging trend. You have the Appalachian South – KY, WV, TN moving Republican and the Coastal South – VA, NC trending Democratic. Indeed, the stretch of states right down the Atlantic coast has changed so much in recent decades and continues to do so. Urban growth is the main reason. Starting at either end – Florida, then Virginia and North Carolina. Georgia will be next and maybe even South Carolina after that.