Field Poll (pdf) (3/9-15, likely voters, 1/5-17 in parens, 9/18-10/6 in brackets):
Meg Whitman (R): 63 (45) [22]
Steve Poizner (R): 14 (17) [9]
Undecided: 23 (38) [49]
(MoE: ±5.5%)Jerry Brown (D): 43 (46) [50]
Meg Whitman (R): 46 (36) [29]
Undecided: 11 (18) [21]Jerry Brown (D): 49 (48) [50]
Steve Poizner (R): 32 (31) [25]
Undecided: 19 (21) [25]
(MoE: ±3.7%)
Whitman’s had the airwaves to herself, utterly pummeling state Insurance Co. Steve Poizner into submission. Unless Poizner can hit back, the chances of seeing a Westley/Angelides-style dogfight for the GOP nomination look pretty grim, indeed.
Fun stat: 8% of voters who “identify a lot” with the Tea Party movement favor Brown over Whitman. (Not that it matters, though, as 20% of Democrats defect to Whitman.) Whatever the case, it certainly appears that Brown is no longer in control of this race.
is what happens when your opponent runs ads every other commercial and you do absolutely nothing about announce your candidacy. Brown has experience campaigning so he should know what to do when the time comes.
paid much mind to the polls before this, thinking that I’d wait for the Field poll. This has me a little worried, but I agree that Brown’ll be able to kick it into gear when the time comes.
I haven’t been following things closely. I assume he won’t be able to match Whitman’s spending, but will he be able to run a respectable amount of advertising?
of his wealth to win this race?
It’s not happening.
I’ve never liked the idea of Jerry Brown being our frontrunner. It’s really sad that we could go 10+ years with Conservatives running Sacramento.
Whitman is the only one running ads and this would be an example of, nobody is paying attention to the race so they’ll just agree with whatever name/position sounds most familiar/correct for the time being.
As long as Brown starts running ads immediately once the primary is over to re-introduce himself than we should be set.
Poizner’s problem is he’s not even running a Bill Simon-esque campaign. He’s sorta/kinda running to Whitman’s right, but his record is overwhelmingly moderate, and thus, he’s not bound to get the support of DeMint and co. Plus, keep in mind, Whitman was a key force behind the McCain campaign, so forget a Palin endorsement for Poizner. Wouldn’t shock me if Palin endorsed Whitman and Fiorina.
In the general, Brown needs to both overcome the general staleness of his name brand, as well as shore up 85+ of Dems; if he can’t do that, odds are Whitman is winning Indies by double-digits, and he won’t claim victory. I think he’d love to see Fiorina defeat Campbell; a Whitman/Campbell ticket might drive conservatives crazy but it could surely draw 20% of Dems.
It’s a ridiculous waste to be spending money now, both for Brown and for Whitman. She has a shadow lead, over Brown especially, but also Poizner. It means virtually nothing now.
It’s silly even to talk about the general now. Poizner has some muddy commercials out now, but his whole campaign strategy is to bury Meg in mud in May.
Whether that is a good or bad startegy for him is an open question… it is extremely good for Brown though.
GOP Primary
Campbell 28% (30%)
Fiorina 22% (25%)
DeVore 9% (6%)
General
Boxer 43% (48%)
Campbell 44% (38%)
Boxer 45% (50%)
Fiorina 44% (35%)
Boxer 45% (51%)
DeVore 41% (34%)
There is a big anti-incumbent mood brewing. Really, Boxer never really have good reelect numbers but this isn’t great news. I really wish they hurry up and finish the health care debate and get to fixing the economy. The health care debate is killing the Democrats. For reference a Field poll for March 2000 (January 2000):
Feinstein 52% (55)
Campbell 19% (14%)
Feinstein went on to crush Campbell 56% to 37%