Public Policy Polling (PDF) (3/20-21, Ohio voters, 6/17-19/2009 in parens):
Jennifer Brunner (D): 37 (40)
Rob Portman (R): 38 (32)
Undecided: 24 (29)Lee Fisher (D): 36 (41)
Rob Portman (R): 41 (32)
Undecided: 23 (27)
(MoE: ±3.9%)
Considering how poorly Ted Strickland fared in PPP’s new Ohio sample, it’s a pleasant surprise to see the Senate race still within striking distance for the Dems. (The trendlines are terrible, but obviously a lot of stuff has happened over the last nine months.) This race will, as much as any Senate race, probably be a referendum on the Democrats and on the White House in November, as all the candidates (Lee Fisher at 22/24, Jennifer Brunner at 15/22, and Rob Portman at 16/19) are little-known and only inspiring ambivalence for now. With this a fairly conservative-looking sample (with 40/53 Obama approval, 39/54 HCR approval, and a 47/45 vote for McCain in 2008), improvement in the national climate could still help push the Democratic nominee over the finish line.
Here’s one additional detail that, I’m sure, won’t escape the notice of the Fisher and/or Brunner camps. PPP also asks the question “Do you think that Columbus politicians or Washington politicians are better equipped to deal with Ohio’s problems?” Maybe it’s not a surprise, but Columbus wins that one 65-11. Guess what the lead argument for Lt. Gov. Fisher or SoS Brunner is going to be against ex-Rep., ex-Bush admin budget director, ex-Bush admin trade rep Rob Portman will be?
RaceTracker: OH-Sen
has absolutely no money what so ever and yet she is only trailing Portman by 1 while Lee trails by 5. Just when I decided that I would support Lee over Brunner (whom I would rather have as Ohio’s first female senator) due to his awesome fund raising skill this poll comes out showing Brunner the stronger GE candidate.
the primary fundraising machine has pretty much dried up the money for Fisher. I think once the primary is over Brunner’s fundraising problems will be over, assuming she wins it.
as mentioned in this diary the Brunner campaign had on Dkos: http://www.dailykos.com/story/…
So decision time is almost at hand for Ohio Dems.
Brunner would have been the ideal candidate for us, if her fundraising skills were’t so lousy. One wonders just how she made it to the level of statewide office in the first place.
This is a pretty good poll for us. I’d also like to see something for the OH SoS race which Brunner abandoned, since that’s critical for redistricting.
is exactly why I think we will win OH and MO. Those two I wont waver on. Especially OH, nobody from the Bush administration is going to be elected in a purple-to-blue state, ever. Let alone the budget director!!! The ad writes itself.
Conventional wisdom this entire cycle so far was that Ted Strickland wouldn’t have a difficult re-election. So much for that. Now, another adage has been that since Jennifer Brunner is broke, Lee Fisher would naturally pull away on her and win the democratic primary and be in great shape with strong funding and establishment backing. But once again, conventional wisdom has been turned on it’s head.
If I’ve said this once, I’ve said this a thousand times. Lee Fisher is simply not a likeable, charismatic guy. He comes across as rather cold and clammy at times, and doesn’t serve to fire up the base. I don’t think he’s terrible with independents though. His political positions are fairly mainstream although perhaps a bit socially conservative for my taste (he takes after Uncle Ted a bit, a bit wishy-washy on marriage equality, didn’t support gambling in the state, etc).
Overall, he’s not a bad person, but I just don’t think he’s going to be able to drum up support as well as some would think on the campaign trail.
Jennifer Brunner on the other hand, is beloved by the base, and is in essence, a left-wing “coffeebagger” in that the Ohio Dem establishment doesn’t want her to win but that she is gaining a lot of support anyway, without much of any funds being spent or raised. Now obviously that’s a big problem and when compared with Portman’s warchest, she’s going to have to do a lot with very little, even if the Ohio Dem party and the DSCC get firmly behind her after the primary (which they will given the competitiveness of the seat).
Brunner is a hard progressive that fights vehemently for what she wants. In many ways she’s very similar to Sherrod Brown, an unabashed liberal in a decidedly purple state. She fully supports almost all mainstream democratic positions, such as public education, the environment, marriage equality, pro-choice abortion, social programs to help the poor and needy, etc. Her high unfavorables are due to the fact that the Ohio GOP hates her guts because of her shooting down all of their silly lawsuits prior to the 2008 presidential election. She came into the Ohio SOS office which was badly tainted after years of corruption under Kenneth Blackwell and stopped a lot of the shady practices that had been occurring, such as not providing enough voting booths in highly democratic districts in NE Ohio and in college towns (which I observed with my own eyes in 2004). I’m not intimidated by that 22% unfavorable in an R-leaning sample.
Also, there’s the geographic factor in addition to politics. Fisher’s socially moderate, economically liberal profile, and being from Cleveland means that he represents the old Clinton playbook to winning Ohio, running up big margins in the northeast, winning southeast Ohio, carrying Columbus, Toledo, and Dayton by small margins, and hold down the margins in the rural areas. Brunner, being the unabashed liberal in the race and being from Columbus, represents the Obama playbook, still run strong in Cleveland and the northeast, but run up big margins in Columbus and Toledo, run even in Cincinnati or even perhaps carry it, and hold down the margins in the rural reaches of the state’s northern and northwestern half to offset the inevitable losses in the southeast. The way things are going right now, I think Brunner has an easier path to victory because of the fact that she resides in Columbus, the one part of the state that could really come through and swing the election if things aren’t going well elsewhere in the state.
So really, it comes down to taste, and what you think is important in a candidate. It also depends on how you define “electability”. If you think money trumps all other concerns, go with Fisher. If you think that charisma is of greater importance, then Brunner’s your woman. Either way, the democrats are set up pretty well here for a possible pickup, only being down slightly, Brunner polling within the MOE.
just donated $25 bucks to Brunner. I would love to see her win the primary. I think she will have a good chance of a pick up if she can get out of the primary.
Against Portman both candidates lost indies 25%-37%. Both do about as well among Democrats, with Burner winning them 68%-12% and Fisher leading 67%-9%. But with Republicans it’s interesting: Portman has a larger lead with them against Fisher, leading 77%-8% versus 67%-10%. This is a little strange considering Republicans like Fisher a little bit more than Burner (13%-30% versus 8%-29%).
I’d expect that no matter who the Democrats nominate Republicans will line up behind Portman in about equal numbers. Burner is seen as more liberal than Fisher and has so little money I doubt she can take advantage of the reluctance of some Republicans to support Portman. So I’d say both Democratic candidates are doing about as well (or poorly) against Portman based on these cross-tabs: the number of undecided Republicans is just throwing things off.