AR-Sen: Halter Gains Ground on Lincoln, Fares Slightly Better in General

Research 2000 for the Daily Kos (3/22-24, likely voters, 11/30-12/2/2009 in parens):

Blanche Lincoln (D-inc): 44 (42)

Bill Halter (D): 31 (26)

Undecided: 25 (32)

(MoE: ±5%)

That’s some nice early movement for Halter, and a clear indication of Lincoln’s vulnerability in the Democratic primary. Among Democrats, Halter’s favorable rating has shot up to 68-10 from 55-11, while Lincoln’s have remained relatively static at 62-34 (from 62-34 in December). Halter’s greatest argument in the primary, though, may be his stronger starting position in the general election. Among all likely voters, Halter’s favorable rating is 46-27 (up from 36-25) compared to Lincoln’s 42-52 spread. In fact, in most of the marquee general match-ups, Halter fares better than Lincoln:

Blanche Lincoln (D-inc): 42

John Boozman (R): 49

Bill Halter (D): 40

John Boozman (R): 48

Blanche Lincoln (D-inc): 43 (46)

Kim Hendren (R): 48 (30)

Bill Halter (D): 44 (36)

Kim Hendren (R): 45 (31)

Blanche Lincoln (D-inc): 41 (41)

Gilbert Baker (R): 49 (42)

Bill Halter (D): 44 (34)

Gilbert Baker (R): 46 (42)

Blanche Lincoln (D-inc): 44 (44)

Curtis Coleman (R): 47 (39)

Bill Halter (D): 45 (35)

Curtis Coleman (R): 44 (40)

Blanche Lincoln (D-inc): 43 (45)

Tom Cox (R): 47 (31)

Bill Halter (D): 45 (36)

Tom Cox (R): 43 (32)

(MoE: ±4%)

Markos writes that Halter’s outsider profile makes him “the best possible candidate Democrats can nominate in Arkansas”. I’m not yet sure that I’m entirely convinced that Halter is the best imaginable candidate for this race, but the arguments in favor of keeping Blanche for another crack at bat are getting more feeble by the day. Certainly Halter is worth the gamble at this point.

Meanwhile, my ex-boss The Sarge makes a good catch: Lincoln is trashing “Washington D.C. unions” for backing Halter, yet she aggressively courted the support of those very same unions just a few short months ago.

RaceTracker Wiki: AR-Sen