Ever take the week off, and come back to find your inbox full of spam?
AL-Gov (3/29, likely voters):
Artur Davis (D): 33
Bradley Byrne (R): 50
Some other: 9
Not sure: 9Artur Davis (D): 36
Kay Ivey (R): 43
Some other: 12
Not sure: 8Artur Davis (D): 35
Tim James (R): 49
Some other: 10
Not sure: 7Artur Davis (D): 44
Roy Moore (R): 40
Some other: 11
Not sure: 6Ron Sparks (D): 33
Bradley Byrne (R): 43
Some other: 11
Not sure: 13Ron Sparks (D): 33
Kay Ivey (R): 39
Some other: 15
Not sure: 13Ron Sparks (D): 34
Tim James (R): 38
Some other: 13
Not sure: 14Ron Sparks (D): 40
Roy Moore (R): 35
Some other: 15
Not sure: 10
(MoE: ±4.5%)
AL-Sen (3/29, likely voters):
William Barnes (D): 32
Richard Shelby (R): 59
Some other: 3
Not sure: 6
(MoE: ±4.5%)
AR-Sen (3/30, likely voters, 3/1 in parentheses):
Blanche Lincoln (D): 36 (39)
John Boozman (R): 51 (48)
Some other: 6 (6)
Not sure: 7 (7)Blanche Lincoln (D): 36 (40)
Gilbert Baker (R): 51 (45)
Some other: 6 (6)
Not sure: 7 (8)Blanche Lincoln (D): 35 (38)
Kim Hendren (R): 51 (43)
Some other: 5 (7)
Not sure: 8 (12)Blanche Lincoln (D): 36 (41)
Curtis Coleman (R): 48 (43)
Some other: 7 (7)
Not sure: 8 (10)Blanche Lincoln (D): 35 (38)
Jim Holt (R): 51 (45)
Some other: 7 (6)
Not sure: 7 (10)Bill Halter (D): 34 (33)
John Boozman (R): 48 (55)
Some other: 8 (6)
Not sure: 11 (9)Bill Halter (D): 36 (37)
Gilbert Baker (R): 44 (43)
Some other: 7 (5)
Not sure: 12 (13)Bill Halter (D): 34 (35)
Kim Hendren (R): 42 (42)
Some other: 10 (7)
Not sure: 13 (15)Bill Halter (D): 37 (35)
Curtis Coleman (R): 40 (38)
Some other: 10 (9)
Not sure: 13 (18)Bill Halter (D): 34 (38)
Jim Holt (R): 43 (42)
Some other: 9 (8)
Not sure: 14 (12)
(MoE: ±4.5%)
FL-Gov (3/18, likely voters, 2/18 in parentheses):
Alex Sink (D): 36 (35)
Bill McCollum (R): 47 (48)
Some other: 5 (4)
Not sure: 12 (12)
(MoE: ±3%)
FL-Sen (3/18, likely voters, 2/18 in parentheses):
Kendrick Meek (D): 34 (32)
Charlie Crist (R): 45 (48)
Some other: 11 (11)
Not sure: 10 (9)Kendrick Meek (D): 34 (31)
Marco Rubio (R): 48 (51)
Some other: 6 (7)
Not sure: 11 (11)
(MoE: ±3%)
HI-Gov (3/24, likely voters):
Neil Abercrombie (D): 54
Duke Aiona (R): 31
Some other: 6
Not sure: 9Mufi Hannemann (D): 50
Duke Aiona (R): 29
Some other: 14
Not sure: 7
(MoE: ±4.5%)
HI-Sen (3/24, likely voters):
Dan Inouye (D): 65
Linda Lingle (R): 25
Some other: 3
Not sure: 6
(MoE: ±4.5%)
IA-Gov (3/17, likely voters, 2/18 in parentheses):
Chet Culver (D): 36 (37)
Terry Branstad (R): 52 (53)
Some other: 6 (6)
Not sure: 6 (4)Chet Culver (D): 40 (40)
Bob Vander Plaats (R): 42 (46)
Some other: 8 (7)
Not sure: 11 (7)Chet Culver (D): 40
Rod Roberts (R): 38
Some other: 10
Not sure: 13
(MoE: ±4.5%)
ID-Gov (3/23, likely voters):
Keith Allred (D): 28
Butch Otter (R): 60
Some other: 3
Not sure: 9
(MoE: ±4.5%)
ID-Sen (3/23, likely voters):
Generic Democrat (D): 28
Mike Crapo (R): 60
Some other: 3
Not sure: 9
(MoE: ±4.5%)
MI-Gov (D) (3/24, likely voters):
Andy Dillon (D): 12
Alma Wheeler Smith (D): 10
Virg Bernero (D): 8
Some other: 17
Not sure: 53
(MoE: ±4%)
MI-Gov (R) (3/24, likely voters):
Peter Hoekstra (R): 27
Rick Snyder (R): 18
Mike Cox (R): 13
Mike Bouchard (R): 6
Some other: 5
Not sure: 32
(MoE: ±4%)
NC-Sen (3/22, likely voters, 2/23 in parentheses):
Elaine Marshall (D): 35 (34)
Richard Burr (R): 51 (50)
Some other: 6 (4)
Not sure: 8 (12)Cal Cunningham (D): 32 (29)
Richard Burr (R): 51 (51)
Some other: 7 (6)
Not sure: 11 (14)
(MoE: ±4.5%)
ND-AL (3/23-24, likely voters, 2/9-10 in parentheses):
Earl Pomeroy (D): 44 (40)
Rick Berg (R): 51 (46)
Some other: 1 (3)
Not sure: 4 (11)
(MoE: ±4.5%)
ND-Sen (3/23-24, likely voters, 2/9-10 in parentheses):
Tracy Potter (D): 25 (17)
John Hoeven (R): 68 (71)
Some other: 2 (4)
Not sure: 5 (8)
(MoE: ±4.5%)
NM-Gov (3/24, likely voters):
Diane Denish (D): 51
Susana Martinez (R): 32
Some other: 7
Not sure: 10Diane Denish (D): 52
Pete Domenici Jr. (R): 35
Some other: 6
Not sure: 6Diane Denish (D): 45
Allen Weh (R): 35
Some other: 7
Not sure: 13Diane Denish (D): 52
Janice Arnold-Jones (R): 30
Some other: 6
Not sure: 12Diane Denish (D): 43
Doug Turner (R): 34
Some other: 7
Not sure: 16
(MoE: ±4.5%)
NY-Gov (3/29, likely voters, 3/1 in parentheses):
Andrew Cuomo (D): 52 (55)
Rick Lazio (R): 29 (30)
Some other: 6 (5)
Not sure: 13 (10)Andrew Cuomo (D): 51 (56)
Carl Paladino (R): 28 (27)
Some other: 6 (6)
Not sure: 15 (11)Andrew Cuomo (D): 50
Steve Levy (R): 26
Some other: 7
Not sure: 17
(MoE: ±4.5%)
OH-Gov (3/30, likely voters, 3/4 in parentheses):
Ted Strickland (D): 45 (38)
John Kasich (R): 46 (49)
Some other: 2 (6)
Not sure: 7 (7)
(MoE: ±4.5%)
OH-Sen (3/30, likely voters, 3/4 in parentheses):
Lee Fisher (D): 38 (39)
Rob Portman (R): 43 (44)
Some other: 4 (5)
Not sure: 14 (12)Jennifer Brunner (D): 38 (37)
Rob Portman (R): 45 (43)
Some other: 4 (6)
Not sure: 13 (15)
(MoE: ±4.5%)
RI-Gov (3/25, likely voters, 2/25 in parentheses):
Frank Caprio (D): 28 (27)
John Robitaille (R): 22 (19)
Lincoln Chafee (I): 39 (37)
Not sure: 11 (17)Patrick Lynch (D): 22 (24)
John Robitaille (R): 26 (22)
Lincoln Chafee (I): 37 (38)
Not sure: 15 (16)
(MoE: ±4.5%)
SD-AL (3/25, likely voters, 2/23 in parentheses):
Stephanie Herseth Sandlin (D): 44 (45)
Chris Nelson (R): 42 (38)
Some other: 6 (6)
Not sure: 9 (11)Stephanie Herseth Sandlin (D): 46 (49)
Kristi Noem (R): 35 (34)
Some other: 8 (4)
Not sure: 10 (13)Stephanie Herseth Sandlin (D): 45 (51)
Blake Curd (R): 33 (33)
Some other: 8 (5)
Not sure: 14 (12)
(MoE: ±4.5%)
SD-Gov (3/25, likely voters, 2/23 in parentheses):
Scott Heidepriem (D): 32 (32)
Dennis Daugaard (R): 49 (41)
Some other: 6 (7)
Not sure: 13 (19)Scott Heidepriem (D): 37 (34)
Dave Knudson (R): 32 (31)
Some other: 13 (13)
Not sure: 19 (22)Scott Heidepriem (D): 39 (37)
Gordon Howie (R): 34 (29)
Some other: 9 (12)
Not sure: 17 (22)
(MoE: ±4.5%)
TN-Gov (3/22, likely voters):
Mike McWherter (D): 27
Bill Haslam (R): 45
Some other: 5
Not sure: 23Mike McWherter (D): 29
Ron Ramsey (R): 43
Some other: 5
Not sure: 23Mike McWherter (D): 31
Zach Wamp (R): 41
Some other: 7
Not sure: 22Kim McMillan (D): 26
Bill Haslam (R): 46
Some other: 5
Not sure: 23Kim McMillan (D): 25
Ron Ramsey (R): 43
Some other: 8
Not sure: 24Kim McMillan (D): 29
Zach Wamp (R): 42
Some other: 5
Not sure: 25
(MoE: ±4.5%)
WY-Gov (3/25, likely voters):
Mike Massie (D): 25
Matt Mead (R): 43
Some other: 8
Not sure: 24Mike Massie (D): 23
Ron Micheli (R): 45
Some other: 8
Not sure: 25Mike Massie (D): 26
Rita Meyer (R): 43
Some other: 7
Not sure: 25Mike Massie (D): 26
Colin Simpson (R): 41
Some other: 8
Not sure: 25
(MoE: ±4.5%)
Meek improves from last month’s numbers against either Rubio or Crist. And if you include a Rasmussen bias correction factor, there’s a hope for November. (FWIW, fivethirtyeight currently gives Meek a 19% chance)
This is unbelievably mammoth. My hat is off to you, sir!
Who the hell know Ras was this spamy? Jez.
Is Heidepriem really in that good shape? My goodness, we might actually have a race here.
It really hurts Lincoln that Halter is doing better in the November matchups; the only argument she has is “I have a chance to win, but he doesn’t.” Now she can’t say that.
2 comments…
1. There is no chance in hell that Robataille is polling ahead of Lynch. No chance at all.
2. I am really starting to worry about Pomeroy and Herseth-Sandlin.
This is way more polling than they’ve done in previous cycles- ether polls have gotten cheaper or they’ve gotten access to a lot more money.