Regional Realignment, Part 6: The South Gulf Coast

The South Gulf Coast consists of Texas, Louisiana, Alabama, and Mississippi.  50 years ago, the Democrats had a virtual monopoly within this region.  Republicans, for the most part, had no strength at all and were lucky to hold a token seat or two within Congress.  Not any more.  While the Democrats have a strong presence in local races, and the Dems control the Alabama, Mississipi, and Louisiana legislatures, the Republicans now have a solid upper hand on a National level.

US House Representation Realignment

After the 1960 general election, the Democrats had approximately 60% of all house seats (and 64 of the 100 senate seats).  I have inserted below the results of certain general elections.

1960 44(D), 1(R)

1962 42(D), 2(R)

1964 38(D), 6(R)

1970 38(D), 6(R)

1972 34(D), 10(R)

1974 34(D), 10(R)

1978 32(D), 12(R)

1980 32(D), 12(R)

1982 36(D), 11(R)

1984 31(D), 16(R)

1990 33(D), 14(R)

1994 31(D), 18(R)

1996 23(D), 26(R)

2002 24(D), 26(R)

2004 17(D), 33(R)

2006 19(D), 31(R)

2008 19(D), 31(R)

50 years ago, this region had one Republican representative (Bruce Alger, who was subsequently defeated in 1964).  Another Texan joined the Republican Caucus in 1962 (Ed Foreman, whose claim to fame is that he represented Texas for 2 years and then was elected as a Congresman representing New Mexico in 1968).  In 1964, with a backlash from the Civil Rights Act of 1964, Alabama elected 5 Republicans and Mississipi elected 1 Republican.  By 1970, this region still had a split of 38 Democrats, 1 Republican.  Slowly but surely, many of the former conservative Democrats switched party affiliations (Lott and Cochran of MS, for examples) to the Republicans, attracting more voters to the Republican movement.  By 1972, the Republicans reached double digits in this region.  Watergate had no bearing on the 1974 election, probably because the region’s shift to the Republicans offset any damage created from this scandal.  By 1978, the Republicans had 12 reps, but the Republicans didn’t ride the Reagan coatails from the 1980 election.  It wasn’t until 1984 that the Republicans capitalized on the Reagan revolution.  Starting in 1990, the Democrats still had considerable control of this region.  Although the Republicans were able to pick off a big Texan named Jack Brooks, the Demcrats still had a 31-18 advantage.  Starting around 1995, this region saw several Democrats swtiched to the Republican side (Mike Parker, MS-04, Billy Tauzin, LA-03, Jimmy Hayes, LA-07, Greg Laughin, TX-14).  After the 1996 election, the Republicans had a 26-23 advantage.  By 2004, with the infamous Texas redistricting, the Republicans capitalized and had a 33-17 advantage.  Today, the Republicans have a 32-18 advantage since Parker Griffith left our party.

US Senate Representation Realignment

1960 8(D), 0(R)

1962 7(D), 1(R)

1964 7(D), 1(R)

1970 7(D), 1(R)

1972 7(D), 1(R)

1974 7(D), 1(R)

1978 6(D), 2(R)

1980 5(D), 3(R)

1982 5(D), 3(R)

1984 5(D), 3(R)

1990 5(D), 3(R)

1994 4(D), 4(R)

1996 2(D), 6(R)

2002 2(D), 6(R)

2004 1(D), 7(R)

2006 1(D), 7(R)

2008 1(D), 7(R)

50 years ago the Democrats controlled all 8 senate seats in this region.  John Tower won a special election in 1962 to take LBJ’s former senate seat, but for the next decade they couldn’t pick up another seat.  Thad Cochran won a MS Senate seat in 1978, and then Alabama elected Denton to a Senate seat in 1980 (only to lose reelection to Richard Shelby in 1986, who would later be a turncoat).  By 1990, MS had to Republican Senators, and Texas had 1 (Phil Gramm).  The Democrats lost another seat in 1993 (special election for Bentsen’s TX seat, won by Kay Bailey Hutchison).  By 1996, Alabama joined LA and MS in having 2 Republican Senators with the election of Jeff Sessions plus Richard Shelby changing party affiliation.  Louisiana elected David “Diaper” Vitter in 2004.  Currently, the Democrats have one Senator in this region (Mary Landrieu, a conservative Democrat).

Conclusions

This region has always had a conservative leaning.  50 years ago, the conservative Democrat ruled this region, and only a handful of moderate, progressive Democrats were in the mix.  The Civil Rights Act of 1964 probably was the beginning of a Republican tide in MS, AL, and LA.  Slowly but surely, many of these conservative Democrats joined the Republican party.  As recent as last year, we had Parker Griffith jump ship to the Republicans.  

I haven’t lost faith that we will continue to be decimated in this region.  Alabama, Mississipi, and Louisiana will remain strong Republican footholds, but there are areas within these states that will fully support a Blue Dog Democrat.  Also, these states have stagnant population growth, meaning that they will not be awarded new districts that will probably go to the Republicans.  Texas, OTOH, is a vastly growing state.  Much of the growth can be contributed to the growing Hispanic population that’s more willing to support Democrats over Republicans.  I anticipate that Texas will become much more Democratic-friendly in the next 20 years.