Regional Realignment, Part 7: the Western Great Lakes

156 years ago, the Republican Party was created in this region.  Many would be surprised at the strength the Republicans had in this region (Wisconsin, Minnesota, and Illinois), although a lot of this advantage had already evaporated by 1960.  Today, we consider this area to be mostly controlled by the Democrats, but that hasn’t always been the case.  

US House Representation Realignment

After the 1960 general election, the Democrats had approximately 60% of all house seats (and 64 of the 100 senate seats).  I have inserted below the results of certain general elections.

1960  21(D), 23(R)

1964  22(D), 20(R)

1966  18(D), 24(R)

1972  19(D), 22(R)

1974  25(D), 16(R)

1980  18(D), 23(R)

1982  22(D), 17(R)

1990  25(D), 14(R)

1992  22(D), 15(R)

1994  19(D), 18(R)

2000  20(D), 17(R)

2002  17(D), 18(R)

2004  18(D), 17(R)

2006  20(D), 15(R)

2008  22(D), 13(R)

50 years ago, the Democrats and Republicans had basically a split in House representation.  The Democrats gained control after the Watergate scandal, only to lose control with the emergence of the Reagan Revolution.  In 1982, with the economy stagnant, Democrats picked up some momentum that carried the party thru 1992.  The Republicans made some modest gains during the Contract With America rampage, eventually peaking with a slight edge of seats by 2002.  With the failures of the Bush Administration, the Democrats picked up a sizable advantage.

US Senate Representation Realignment

1960  4(D), 2(R)

1964  5(D), 1(R)

1966  4(D), 2(R)

1972  5(D), 2(R)

1974  5(D), 1(R)

1980  2(D), 4(R)

1982  2(D), 4(R)

1990  4(D), 2(R)

1992  5(D), 1(R)

1994  5(D), 1(R)

2000  5(D), 1(R)

2002  4(D), 2(R)

2004  5(D), 1(R)

2006  5(D), 1(R)

2008  6(D), 0(R)

Exept for the several years in the early 80’s, the Democrats have enjoyed the majority of this region’s senate seats.  With the advent of the Reagan Revolution, the Republicans won several Senate seats to gain this advantage, only to lose control again a few years later.  Today, all 6 Senate seats are in the hands of the Democrats.

Conclusions

While we have no room to grow in the Senate, we have several vulnerable senate seats that may cause us to play some defense, most notably Burris’ seat (up in 2010) and Franken’s seat (up in 2014).  While the IL seat is currently a tossup, I imagine Franken’s voting record won’t attract the ire of the voters.  The House is a different story:  although we have a 22-13 advantage, we still have room to grow.  Minnesota and Wisconsin could provide Team Blue with a couple more house seats in the next 10 years.  Illinois probably has 4 seats (IL-10, IL-6, IL-13, and IL-16) that could come to play with a combination of the right Democratic candidate and the right national tide.  Unfortunately for the Western Great Lakes, the population growth is stagnant, and we will probably see Illinois and Minnesota lose 2 seats after the 2010 Census.  I don’t believe a 23-10 post-2010 is out of the question.