Welcome back to StephenCLE’s 2010 House Rankings. In this post, my April ratings update, we’ll look back through the whole list of rankings, with special emphasis on 22 races in which I had a rankings change for this month.
Again, at present the Democrats control 257 seats, and the Republicans have 178, not counting the few seats that are open due to special elections. Team Red will have to take 40 seats to retake control of the House of Representatives, which I feel is an arduous task given the relatively low amount of open seats on the board. Still, with the environment in their favor, the GOP will probably do well this year.
Again, as I mentioned, I have changed the rankings on 22 seats this month. Here they are, along with the explanation for why the ratings were moved.
1.Michigan-1 – Solid Democrat to Toss Up – Bart Stupak’s retirement puts into play a swing seat that is sure to get a lot of attention on both sides of the aisle. MI-1 stretches over the upper peninsula and northern lower peninsula and has a PVI of R+3. Obama won here 50-48 in 2008. This is an unfortunate development for Team Blue, but with filing deadlines already passed in some states and fast approaching in others, we probably won’t see much more of this.
2.Hawaii-1 – Likely Democrat to Lean Democrat – If I were rating this based on the upcoming special election, I would have it at toss up, as the free-for-all between Ed Case, Charles Djou, and Colleen Hanabusa is a bonafide triple threat match. I move the November rating to Lean based on the idea that if Djou wins, he’ll have the advantage of incumbency and a favorable environment. If one of the dems win though, this probably comes off the board.
3.Colorado-3 – Likely Democrat to Lean Democrat – It looks as though Colorado is going to be a big battleground state in 2010 both for governor and senate. That’s going to bring out partisans on both sides of the aisle, and in this R+5 district, that’s bad news for John Salazar. The only poll I’ve seen thus far has Salazar ahead by mid single digits.
4.South Dakota-1 – Likely Democrat to Lean Democrat – Things are happening in the Dakotas, and it appears a full-out republican revolution could be unfolding there. It’s more pronounced in North Dakota will John Hoeven ready to claim the senate seat there, but it appears that Herseth-Sandlin’s position isn’t unassailable either. Rassmussen had her only up 2 on Chris Nelson at last check, although it is Rass, so I don’t know much I can trust that. Still, it’s enough to move the rating.
5.Illinois-11 – Likely Democrat to Lean Democrat – Recent polling has shown Debbie Halvorson struggling, which is enough to move this rating down to Lean.
6.Ohio-10 – Likely Democrat to Solid Democrat – Now that Dennis Kucinich has done the smart thing and voted for HCR, the prospect of Democrats staying home and letting him lose is just about dead. Thus, I take this one off the board.
7.Massachusetts-4 – Likely Democrat to Solid Democrat – I had this one at Likely based on the prospect that perhaps Barney Frank would be calling it quits, but it appears that isn’t the case, so it moves off the board.
8.California-25 – Likely Republican to Solid Republican – This was the same deal as Massachusetts-4, where I wasn’t sure if Buck McKeon was leaning toward retirement or not. Evidently that’s not the case, so this district moves off the board.
9.North Dakota-1 – Lean Democrat to Toss Up – Earl Pomeroy appears to be in real danger now, as he’s trailing outside of the margin of error according to Rassmussen (again, big grain of salt considering the messenger). Still, with the powerful Hoeven leading the ticket, this is going to be a fight for sure. Pomeroy’s vote in favor of HCR isn’t going to do him any favors in this R+10 district.
10.Florida-24 – Lean Democrat to Toss Up – Much like Earl Pomeroy, Suzanne Kosmas casted a tough vote in favor of HCR in a district laden with seniors that probably doesn’t think too highly of the legislation. I haven’t seen any polling here yet, but I have a feeling that the FL Dem delegation is feeling the heat right now.
11.Maine-1 – Lean Democrat to Likely Democrat – My gut instinct still tells me this seat is vulnerable, but I’ve been hearing from New England’s SSPers that Chellie Pingree’s GOP opponent is a real whack-job. If that’s the case, then I must move the ranking in the Dem direction.
12.Massachusetts-10 – Lean Democrat to Toss Up – Really, I have no idea who’s running here. The district is D+5, but it’s trending rightward, so I think I underestimated the GOP’s chances a bit in my initial prediction, particularly with the seat open.
13.Washington-8 – Toss Up to Lean Republican – I think I had Dave Reichert in too tight a straights as well. The democrat in the race is very capable, but Reichert is generally quite popular, so in a year like this you’d think he has a slight advantage.
14.Florida-25 – Lean Republican to Toss Up – With the democrats landing their #1 candidate in a district that is probably more liberal now than it’s R+5 PVI would suggest, this race is going to be one of the hottest in the nation. Team Red better come up with a good candidate now.
15.California-50 – Likely Republican to Solid Republican – With nobody strong stepping up on Team Blue’s side to face Brian Bilbray, this race is taken off the board. Bilbray better watch out in redistricting coming up though, along with a lot of California GOPers.
16.Alabama-3 – Likely Republican to Solid Republican – This seat is now a shoo-in for Mike Rogers now that Josh Segall has dropped out of the race.
17.Kentucky-2 – Likely Republican to Solid Republican – I know that Brett Guthrie is pretty underwhelming as a politician, but I just can’t see Team Blue picking up a seat this solidly red this cycle.
18.New York-26 – Likely Republican to Solid Republican – Maybe I’m moving this one prematurely, but with this being the most red district in New York and lots of contested Dem seats in the state, I think the concern of Team Blue is going to be elsewhere in NY.
19.Arkansas-1 – Toss Up to Lean Democrat – This is a major GOP recruitment fail, as it appears that the local democratic bench was just too strong. I expect Team Blue to hold the seat now.
20.Missouri-8 – Likely Republican to Safe Republican – File this one in the same category as KY-2, I know the Dem candidate is pretty strong, but honestly, we’re not picking up R+15 seats this year.
21.South Carolina-5 – Likely Democrat to Lean Democrat – I think John Spratt is in for a very tough fight this year, and I considered moving this one all the way to Toss Up, but polling does show him still with a mid to upper single digit lead. Still, this is the rural south we’re talking about, so exercise caution.
22.Florida-2 – Likely Democrat to Lean Democrat – Boyd is much in the same boat as John Spratt, a district that is fairly tough in the south, although Boyd’s base is somewhat more urban in nature. I can’t figure voting for HCR did him any favors though. I’d like to see some polling because honestly I want to move this to toss up but I can’t simply on a whim.
23.Kansas-3 – Likely Republican to Lean Republican – The final rating change is in Kansas, where Team Blue is keeping it within the family in an attempt to hold this seat. It’s certainly better than nothing, as the Dems at least have a shot now. How good a shot, we might not know for a while, but it’ll be a race.
The National Score
Last month – Republicans +25 seats, Democrats +5 seats – Net Change GOP +20
This month – Republicans +26 seats, Democrats +5 seats – Net Change GOP +21
Republican Pickup List – CO-4, NV-3, ID-1, WA-3, ND-1, IA-3, KS-3, AR-2, LA-3, AL-2, MS-1, TX-17, MI-1, MI-7, IN-8, OH-1, VA-2, VA-5, TN-4, TN-6, TN-8, MD-1, PA-11, NH-1, NY-24, NY-29
Democratic Pickup List – DE-1, PA-6, IL-10, LA-2, CA-3
There were three seats in which I changed my final calls on this month. Last month I was calling for a Republican pickup in AR-1, but due to Team Red’s recruitment fail there, I’ve turned that one to a Democratic hold. In MI-1, Bart Stupak’s retirement in an R-leaning PVI district has moved that seat into the takeover column, canceling out AR-1. And then we have a change in ND-1, where I now feel that Earl Pomeroy is going to lose re-election. These moves give Team Red an expected gain of 21 seats if the election were to be held today, making the national score Democrats 236, Republicans 199.
As you can imagine, there are many, many seats that are very, very close on both sides of the cut line, some of which my predictions are no better than flipping a coin. I would note that compared to most prognosticators, my predictions are slightly more optimistic than average. I am of the belief that those who are calling for the house to be lost are not investigating each race individually, and when you ask these people to name off seat by seat which ones will be lost, well, it’s hard to come up with a consensus of 40-50 that will be gone. However, there are many, many more democratic seats in the lean and likely columns compared with the republicans, so it’s possible that things could get much uglier. I hope it doesn’t.
Anyway, here’s the big board, and I’ll see you all in the comments, and again next month.
2010 Big Board: (as of April 14 update)
Safe Dem – 161 seats
Likely Dem – 35 seats
CA-36 (Harman)
CA-47 (Sanchez)
UT-2 (Matheson)
CO-7 (Perlmutter)
NM-1 (Heinrich)
AZ-1 (Kirkpatrick)
AZ-8 (Giffords)
NV-1 (Berkley)
OR-5 (Schrader)
IL-8 (Bean)
WI-7 (Obey)
MN-1 (Walz)
MS-4 (Taylor)
LA-2 (Cao)
TX-23 (Rodriguez)
TX-27 (Ortiz)
IN-2 (Donnelly)
OH-6 (Wilson)
OH-13 (Sutton)
GA-2 (Bishop)
VA-11 (Connolly)
KY-3 (Yarmuth)
NC-8 (Kissell)
NC-11 (Shuler)
NJ-12 (Holt)
DE-1 (Open)
PA-3 (Dahlkemper)
PA-4 (Altmire)
PA-17 (Holden)
RI-1 (Open)
CT-4 (Himes)
NY-4 (McCarthy)
NY-20 (Murphy)
NY-25 (Maffei)
ME-1 (Pingree)
Lean Dem – 25 seats
HI-1 (Open)
CA-11 (McNerney)
AZ-5 (Mitchell)
CO-3 (Salazar)
MO-4 (Skelton)
SD-1 (Herseth)
AR-1 (Open)
IL-11 (Halvorson)
IL-14 (Foster)
WI-8 (Kagen)
MI-9 (Peters)
OH-16 (Boccieri)
OH-18 (Space)
SC-5 (Spratt)
GA-8 (Marshall)
FL-2 (Boyd)
VA-9 (Boucher)
WV-1 (Mollohan)
KY-6 (Chandler)
NJ-3 (Adler)
PA-8 (Murphy)
PA-10 (Carney)
CT-5 (Murphy)
NY-1 (Bishop)
NY-13 (McMahon)
Toss Up – 36 seats
CA-3 (Lungren)
CO-4 (Markey)
NM-2 (Teague)
NV-3 (Titus)
ID-1 (Minnick)
WA-3 (Open)
ND-1 (Pomeroy)
IA-3 (Boswell)
AL-2 (Bright)
IL-10 (Open)
MS-1 (Childers)
TX-17 (Edwards)
IN-9 (Hill)
MI-1 (Open)
MI-7 (Schauer)
OH-1 (Driehaus)
OH-15 (Kilroy)
FL-8 (Grayson)
FL-22 (Klein)
FL-24 (Kosmas)
FL-25 (Open)
VA-2 (Nye)
VA-5 (Perriello)
TN-4 (Davis)
TN-8 (Open)
MD-1 (Kratovil)
PA-6 (Gerlach)
PA-7 (Open)
PA-11 (Kanjorski)
PA-12 (Open)
NH-1 (Shea-Porter)
NH-2 (Open)
NY-19 (Hall)
NY-23 (Owens)
NY-24 (Arcuri)
MA-10 (Open)
Lean Rep – 13 seats
WA-8 (Reichert)
AZ-3 (Open)
NE-2 (Terry)
KS-3 (Open)
MN-6 (Bachmann)
LA-3 (Open)
IN-8 (Open)
OH-2 (Schmidt)
OH-12 (Tiberi)
SC-2 (Wilson)
FL-12 (Open)
PA-15 (Dent)
NY-29 (Open)
Likely Rep – 19 seats
CA-19 (Open)
CA-44 (Calvert)
CA-45 (Bono Mack)
CA-48 (Campbell)
AK-1 (Young)
AR-2 (Open)
KS-2 (Jenkins)
KS-4 (Open)
IL-13 (Biggert)
MN-3 (Paulsen)
AL-5 (Griffith)
FL-10 (Young)
TX-32 (Sessions)
MI-3 (Open)
MI-11 (McCotter)
SC-1 (Open)
VA-1 (Wittman)
TN-6 (Open)
NJ-7 (Lance)
Solid Rep – 146 seats
Too many variables there to call it likely anything. My best guesses are as follows, with a bit of a crapshoot in both primaries:
Either Republican v. Elliott = Safe R
Griffin v. Wills = Toss Up
Wallace v. Wills = Lean D
Hard to categorize a race like that. I’d probably call it a tossup as a shameless cop-out.
I’m not certain how endangered Halvorson really is, as the recent polling was a little, um, shady. But my gut tells me this is more likely to be tossup than Likely D by election day.
Stupak’s retirement hurts, there’s absolutely no doubt about that, but the Democrats have a really strong bench. Right now I’d give it toss-up status.
Also, the only possible way I could see FL-02 being anything other than Likely or Solid Democrat would be by Boyd losing his primary to Lawson (which is seeming less and less likely). The Republicans who are running this time seem to be of the “some dude” variety, none of the Republicans (or Lawson for that matter) seem to be raising money well enough to even make a race of it.
One more thing, I’d keep MA-10 as a Leans seat for the time being, Scott Brown’s numbers there aside, it’s still a deeply Democratic area with a deep Democratic bench (not so much for the Republicans).
and 7 changes benefiting Democrats. Roughly a 2-to-1 ratio. In a wave election – if that ratio keeps up every month, you might indeed end up with a lot more losses than 21.
I think that in wave elections at first things don’t look terrible (i.e. your prediction), but events have a way of compounding upon each other to hurt the weak party, driven by the underlying unpopularity of the weak party.
I’m not saying this will be a wave election (things have improved for Democrats recently), but I’m not so sanguine as this post makes things look.
On the Democratic pickups, I’m not as confident that we will pick up PA-6. CA-3 will be a dogfight, and I think we have a good chance to prevail.
On the Republican pickups, I still believe that Davis will win TN-04. Davis is the type of Democrat that represents this district fairly well, although McCain won his district by a sizable margin. I also believe that Boswell will prevail in IA-03, although he’s not a great campaigner. ND-AL is interesting: I saw the poll with Pomeroy behind, but I think he’ll win by a slight margin.
On the list of seats that I feel will go to the Dems, I would add NM-02 and OH-15. There are probably another 10 seats or so that I think are tossups, but you’ve already identified them as tossups that will be retained by the Dems.
Overall, a very good series. I think we will end up losing around 25-30 seats, but right now it’s almost impossible to predict.
I also think things won’t be as great for the GOP as some do, just because I believe campaigns matter, and polls right now just don’t capture the actual races. One other thing that many folks seem to overlook. In 1994 the Republicans had been out of power in the House for 40 years, so virtually no voters had any idea what a GOP-run House would do. Now, however, they controlled the House for 12 years until just 4 years ago, so GOP control is much less of a hypothetical. During the campaigns, their promises can be held up against actual results, which I think in the end may make it more difficult for them to really support themselves as agents of change. So while the Republicans will do well, I’d be surprised if they find themselves in much better a position than the Democrats were after 2004.
I think you have been misled. Mr. Scontras is certainly not a whackjob!! Check out his website http://www.scontras2010.com.