Zata|3 (D) for Talk Business (4/14, likely voters, no trendlines):
Blanche Lincoln (D-inc): 38
Bill Halter (D): 31
D.C. Morrison (D): 10
Undecided: 20
(MoE: ±3%)
Zata|3 (yes, the pipe is actually part of their name) is yet another polling firm I’m not familiar with, but at least Talk Business is mixing it up – for their CD-level polls, they used a Republican outfit, while Zata is a Dem firm. Unhappy (of course) about these results, the Lincoln campaign did something we haven’t seen a whole lot of this cycle – they released a dueling internal. A Lincoln spokesbot also attacked the Talk Business poll for being “very unreliable” because it was automated (eyeroll).
Benenson Strategy Group (D) (PDF) for Blanche Lincoln (4/5-7, likely voters, no trendlines):
Blanche Lincoln (D-inc): 53
Bill Halter (D): 35
D.C. Morrison (D): 4
Undecided: 8
(MoE: ±3.8%)
Note that I’m using the numbers with leaners as detailed in the PDF, rather than the non-leaner numbers cited in the press release, which have Lincoln up 51-34. Incidentally, D.C. Morrison is some weirdo conservative Paulist that I’d never heard of until, well, just now.
I don’t trust this poll at face value myself. And I’m rooting for Halter! (I don’t really have anything against Lincoln, I just see her as having NO chance in November, while Halter has at least an outside chance.)
This Talk Business-commissioned poll has really weird crosstabs that I can’t decipher, with columns “D1” through “D4” without any guide as to what those categories mean.
The narrative explanation says there’s no weighting for anything, and that interested parties can do their own weighting, but there are no decipherable crosstabs provided to do that!
On balance I trust Lincoln’s internal poll more than Halter’s. Whatever support she’s lost, she still gets majority job approval from base Democrats in Arkansas, who have been voting for her for a long time while recognizing they’re in a conservative state in a tough year. Halter is going to have a very tough time actually winning the primary, he needs to somehow establish himself as clearly more viable than Lincoln in November to get over the hump with primary voters. I already think that’s true, but a lot of people don’t, at least not yet.
(from not especially detailed polls)
1. Democratic primary electorate in Arlaksas is substantially to the right of those in most states (including such Southern states as Virginia, North Carolina, Florida or Texas)
2. Lincoln is still favored in primary (may be not by much, but still)
3. Halter popularity among netroots gave him money, but didn’t substantially strengthened his position as far as “electability” is considered – he still loses to main Republican candidates and, in most cases – by only few points less then Lincoln
4. The race is now Republican’s to lose in any case, but, given the tendency of Arkansas republicans to put up “strange” or extreme candidates – that’s quite posiible.