Regional Realignment, Part 8: The Central Plains

The Central Plains region consists of Arkansas, Iowa, Kansas, Missouri, Nebraska, Oklahoma, North Dakota, and South Dakota.  This region consists of states that have been solidly Republican for much of the 20th and 21st Century (South Dakota, North Dakota, Nebraska and Kansas), a state that is about as conservative as any state in the Union (Oklahoma), a state that is part of the Solid South (Arkansas), and two states that have been swing states in the past (Iowa and Missouri).  The region’s population growth has been somewhat stagnant over the last 50 years, and there is no indication that this trend will change in the near future.

US House Representation Realignment

After the 1960 general election, the Democrats had approximately 60% of all house seats (and 64 of the 100 senate seats).  I have inserted below the results of certain general elections.

1960:  23(D), 22(R)

1962:  18(D), 21(R)

1964:  25(D), 14(R)

1966:  17(D), 22(R)

1970:  22(D), 17(R)

1974:  24(D), 13(R)

1980:  19(D), 18(R)

1982:  20(D), 15(R)

1990:  20(D), 15(R)

1994:  11(D), 22(R)

1996:  9(D), 24(R)

2004:  12(D), 20(R)

2006:  15(D), 17(R)

2008:  14(D), 18(R)

Back in 1960, the Democrats strength within this region was due to Oklahoma (5-1 Dem advantage), Arkansas (6-0 Dem advantage), and Missouri (9-2 Dem advantage).  The rest of the states had a Republican advantage of 19-3!.  By 1970, Oklahoma had a 4-2 Dem advantage, Missouri had a 9-1 Dem advantage, and Arkansas a 3-1 Dem advantage (Republicans had a 13-6 advantage in the other states).  Although the Dems gained considerable strength nationwide from the Watergate years, this region only nominally shifted support to the Dems.  By 1980, with the advent of the Reagan Revolutions, the Dems still had a 19-18 advantage (Arkansas now has a 2-2 split, Missouri a 6-4 Dem advantage, and Oklahoma a 5-1 Dem advantage).  By 1990, the Democratic advantage was 20-15 (Arkansas a 3-1 Dem advantage, Missouri a 6-3 Dem advantage, and Oklahoma a 4-2 Dem advantage).  After the first term of the Clinton administration, this region overwhelmingly supported the Repubicans, giving the GOP a 24-9 lead (while Missouri had a 5-4 Dem advantage, Arkansas was again split at 2-2, and Oklahoma had a resounding 6-0 GOP domination!).  The Dems has yet to regain their previous advantage, but made considerable strides in 20006 to narrow the GOP advantage to 17-15.  Today, this region has an 18-14 GOP house advantage.

US Senate Representation Realignment

1960:  7(D), 9(R)

1962:  8(D), 8(R)

1964:  8(D), 8(R)

1966:  8(D), 8(R)

1970:  8(D), 8(R)

1974:  9(D), 7(R)

1980:  7(D), 9(R)

1982:  7(D), 9(R)

1990:  9(D), 7(R)

1994:  8(D), 8(R)

1996:  7(D), 9(R)

2004:  7(D), 9(R)

2006:  8(D), 8(R)

2008:  8(D), 8(R)

I find it very interesting that neither party has obtained more than a 9-7 advantage in the last 50 years in terms of Senate seats.  While the Republicans will most likely (if not definitely) gain the ND seat, and will more than likely gain the AR senate seat, the Dems have a decent shot of gaining the MO seat.  If history is a precedent, which in this case I believe it will be, the Dems should be considered to have a psychological advantage of picking up the Missouri Senate seat.  If ND and AR were to change hands to the Republicans, and the Democrats were to lose in MO, the Republicans would have a 10-6 advantage.  It hasn’t happened in the last 50 years, so now I’m even more confident that Carnahan can defeat a weak candidate (Blunt).

Conclusions:

Overall, I’m concerned that we will lose several house seats in November 2010.  Specifically, we will have our hands full in ND-AL, SD-AL, IA-03, AR-01, AR-02, and KS-03.  If we were to lose these 6 seats, the Republicans would have their largest advantage in 50 years!  Truth be told, I think we can expect a split in these 3 seats (SD-AL, AR-01, and IA-03 should stay in our hands, while AR-02, KS-03, and ND-AL may be an uphill battle).  This area today clearly has a Republican advantage, but history has shown that the Democrats can elect good candidates over weaker Republican candidates.  In this region especially, proper candidate recruitment is a major boon for the Dems.