Western New England Coll. (4/11-15, likely voters, no trendlines):
Deval Patrick (D-inc): 34
Charlie Baker (R): 27
Tim Cahill (I): 29
Undecided: 10
(MoE: ±4.5%)
Charlie Baker, the former CEO of Harvard-Pilgrim Health Care, secured the GOP nomination at the state party’s convention over the weekend. Baker earned 89% of the delegates’ votes at the convention, pushing rival Christy Mihos below the rather low 15% bar for making it onto the ballot. Baker is something of the heir to the William Weld-style school of socially tolerant (down to the openly gay running mate, Richard Tisei), big-business-friendly, WASPy school of moderate Massachusetts Republicanism.
Mihos, by contrast, is a quirkier outsider figure who had run as a sorta-moderate independent in 2006 but was courting the Tea Party crowd this year… which apparently didn’t work, as the GOP opted by a wide margin for electability (Mihos’s campaign has been awash in financial disarray and general confusion this year). I can’t quite ascertain whether Mihos would still be able to qualify by signature gathering, but it’s a moot point as Mihos pledged his support to Baker at the convention.
The newest poll of the race, the first from WNEC, points to the tough road ahead of Baker, though. Like most pollsters, they find Democratic incumbent Deval Patrick in the 30s, no place an incumbent wants to be. However, they show that Baker and Dem-turned-conservative-indie Tim Cahill are splitting anti-Patrick votes down the middle, more or less canceling each other out and letting Patrick win. One of Baker or Cahill will need to collapse for the other to win. In the poll’s writeup’s words:
Among voters who disapprove of the job that Patrick is doing, 45 percent said they would support Baker, and 40 percent said they would back Cahill. Among voters who said the state is on the wrong track, 39 percent said they would vote for Baker and 38 percent said they would support Cahill.
Nice holiday here in Massachusetts. Beautiful weather, but not too hot for the marathon runners.
I’m curious if adding Stein to the equation would sink Patrick’s numbers. There’s a lot of liberal discontent with the Gov as well, which might hold their nose and vote Patrick if only presented with two conservative options. I have yet to see a poll of the actual four way race.
Indie – 39%
Dem – 38%
GOP – 23%
Baker – 35/10/80 = 36%
Cahill – 35/15/15 = 23%
Patrick – 30/75/5 = 41%
Toss-up, although Patrick needs to keep Cahill as viable as possible.
Yeah, I’m sure he wants to be governor, but the fact that he’s running to Patrick’s (and maybe even to Baker’s) right makes me really wonder if he’s trying to protect Patrick (as a second-tier concern rather than his primary motivation).
I don’t know enough about Massachusetts politics or about Cahill specifically, but I can’t help but feel that part of this is meant to do this.
If someone from Massachusetts can tell me exactly why I’m full of crap, I’d appreciate it 😉
some more of that morris gold! (So much snark the world will implode soon)
I didn’t know until now that Christy Mihos was a dude. Seriously, why not “Chris” or “Christopher”? “Christy” is not supposed to be an ambiguous name, damnit!
In 21 days, voters in twelve Massachusetts towns to the South/West of Boston will help decide what the media narrative in the MA governor’s race will be.
on May 11th, A special election is being held in the Norfolk, Bristol and Middlesex State Senate District to elect the successor to now U.S. Senator Scott Brown.
Both parties are fielding strong, well funded candidiates- The Democrats have Dr. Peter Smulowitz of Needham, an ER doctor, Healthcare policy analyst and progressive activist who stunned the MA political class by upsetting a powerful incumbent State Rep in the primary, and the Republicans have Scott Brown’s protege, State Rep. Richard Ross of Wrentham.
Both sides are investing heavily on this race, including the two major party gubernatorial candidates. They know that how this race turns out will effect perceptions about their parties changes this November. The momentum in the governor’s race will be up for grabs on May 11th.
Patrick is very unpopular and would lose almost to everyone in 1-1 race, despite being liberal Democrat in liberal and Democratic Massachusetts. His best hope is that present scenario will continue and he will run against very deeply split opposition. In that case he may win on strength of 35% which are almost guaranteed to him by liberal Democratic voters in state.
Cahill ran to the right last couple of month as much as possible, positioning himself even to the right of Baker on some issues. As a result – he won some substantial support among teabaggers (especially right now, after Mihos withdrawal), but he risks now to lose moderate Democrats and Independents (his base) if he moves further to the right.
Baker’s problem are almost opposite – substantial part of conservative Republicans doesn’t want to vote for him, especially after he chose gay state Senator Tisei as his running mate. Probably he will able to quelch that discontent and get most of Republican vote in the end, but right now it’s that vote that he lacks (though he tries to compensate that by attracting some moderate-liberal Independents and Democrats)
If any of two – Baker or Cahill – will be able to diminish status of his opponrnt, relegating him to “spoiler” from “serious contender” – he will win. Otherwise Patrick will, probably, squeak by. It’s a pity that he is, basically, unopposed in Democratic primary…