PPP (4/17-18, New Hampshire voters, no trendlines):
Carol Shea-Porter (D-inc): 45
Frank Guinta (R): 46
Undecided: 10
(MoE: ±3.9%)Katrina Swett (D): 32
Charlie Bass (R): 47
Undecided: 21
(MoE: ±3.4%)
PPP does us a big favor by throwing in both congressional districts (both of which are tossups this year) in with their statewide poll of the Senate and gubernatorial races. We’ve already gotten a sense that these races are potential trouble thanks to a UNH poll from February; the generally more trustworthy PPP finds Dems in better shape in the 1st (where UNH saw Rep. Carol Shea-Porter losing 43-33 to former Manchester mayor Frank Guinta… although bear in mind that UNH saw Shea-Porter losing through most of her first re-election in 2008) but Dems faring even worse in the 2nd.
There’s not too much falloff in Democratic enthusiasm in these districts; their samples went 48-45 for Obama in the 1st and 52-46 for Obama in the 2nd. Instead, there seems to be some antipathy to the Democratic candidates in these districts; Shea-Porter’s approval is 41/50, and Swett fares even worse, somehow managing to be unknown and unpopular among those who know her: 19/29 (including, tellingly, 35/16 among liberals and 35/18 among Democrats). Shea-Porter is pretty much locked-in; her survival will be all about turnout and the Dems’ overall standing come November. But it’d be interesting to see whether Ann McLane Kuster (who’s probably even less known than Swett, but likely in better standing with the Democratic base) fares any better against Charlie Bass, who benefits from being fairly well-known, having held the seat from 1994-2006. Alas, there were no head-to-heads involving Kuster (or, in the 1st, involving the lesser GOPers).
…than Swett, frankly.
Kuster is anonymous to voters, more than Swett I’m sure since Swett is a more prominent figure within the party.
I imagine if PPP tested Kuster in the same sample, there would be more undecideds, but Bass would still be in the low/mid-40s, and Kuster in the 20s with only the hard-core Democratic base picking her (assuming the poll question identifies her as a Democrat).
Bass was the man for a dozen years in this seat, and one thing he did right that Jeb Bradley didn’t do was to skip 2008. If Bass ran and lost then, he’d be done now, the state Republicans would insist on new blood, and we’d be better shape at the outset. Bradley wouldn’t be in bad shape now had he skipped 2008 himself, but now he’s damaged goods (despite having returned to office in the state Senate).
it’s going to be close in this climate, the fact that she’s only down a point means it’s still anyone’s game.
Not to go Tekzilla on everybody, but I in no way expected a result that poor from a district with a democratic lean. Especially not because I had always considered Katrina Swett to be a top-tier candidate. Yikes.
Come my May Ratings Update NH-2 is going to move to Republican takeover status unless another poll comes out between now and then with different results.
I would have liked to see a poll done. I think Hodes probably would have a better shot at a career if he dropped out of the Senate race and ran here again. I suspect even Hodes might be trailing Bass in this district as he is likely losing to the lessor known Ayotte here.
I wish that Hodes never ran for Senate. In that case, Bass may not have run in this district and Democrats would have held this seat.
All of this giving up House seat to try and get over 60 in that we seemed to be doing last year was not a good idea. Especially since we have a good shot at losing the House, but have almost no chance of losing the Senate.
A lot of these runs(ie Melancon in Louisiana, Ellsworth in Indiana) are equivalent to Jim Walsh running against Hillary Clinton in 2006 or Dave Reichart running against Maria Cantwell in 2006.
The general rule of thumb is that you dont try to beat a Senate incumbent or give up your seat to run in a tough state unless it is going to be a very good year for your party(ie 1974 for Democrats, 1978 for Republicans, 1986 for Democrats, 1994 for Republicans, 2006 and 2008 for Democrats, 2010 for Republicans). Democrats need a lesson in cutting losses.