According to Roll Call (subscription required), the NRCC is getting giddy over the candidacy of state Senator Nick Jordan against 5th-term Democratic Rep. Dennis Moore:
House Republicans, long stymied by Rep. Dennis Moore (D) in Kansas’ GOP-leaning 3rd district, think they might have recruited the perfect candidate — state Sen. Nick Jordan (R) — to flip the seat back to the GOP.
In Washington, D.C., last week to participate in the National Republican Congressional Committee’s candidate school, Jordan is described as having the support of both the moderate and conservative wings of the GOP in the Jayhawk State’s 3rd district.
If true, this could prove crucial for a Jordan victory. That’s because Moore first won the suburban eastern Kansas district in 1998 — and has held it since — largely because Republicans have failed to unify behind their nominee in each of the past five elections.
“Both moderates and conservatives are pushing [Jordan] to run,” said a knowledgeable Republican operative based in Kansas. “This is the guy we’ve been waiting for.”
Jordan said in a brief interview late last week that he is “very likely” to run for Congress in 2008 and that he probably would announce his intentions sometime in August. […]
Republicans in D.C. and Kansas claim that Jordan’s position on social issues and his record on economic matters appeal jointly to the conservative and moderate wings of 3rd district Republicans. The two factions have warred with each other in the 3rd district at least since 1998 when Moore defeated Vince Snowbarger (R) for the seat — a split that reflects an intraparty rift plaguing the Kansas GOP statewide since the early 1990s.
Jordan is socially conservative, opposing both abortion rights and embryonic stem-cell research — which makes the conservatives happy. But he also has a lengthy record of championing business and economic development projects — and this makes the moderates happy.
It’s hard to blame Republicans for trying at an R+4.2 seat in a Presidential year, but I’m having a hard time seeing Moore as a particularly vulnerable incumbent, especially after looking at his steadily improving electoral track record:
| Year | Moore (%) | Republican (%) |
|---|---|---|
| 1998 | 52 | 48 |
| 2000 | 50 | 47 |
| 2002 | 50 | 47 |
| 2004 | 55 | 43 |
| 2006 | 64 | 34 |
With a Presidential year bringing the base to the polls (we assume) and a more credible challenger than novice Chuck Ahner, who Moore beat by 30 points last year, Republicans may be able to hold the incumbent to a level more similar to his 2004 result than his 2006 blow out. Nick Smith may be a good recruit for Tom Cole’s NRCC (assuming he makes his bid final), but he strikes me as three or four cycles too late to catch Moore in a particularly vulnerable position.
The statistics shown above certainly demonstrate this is a GOP leaning seat in a fair fight. But taking on an incumbent Democrat who is well thought of and replacing him with a GOP in the minority is not really a formula for increasing government attention to KS-3. So 2008 is not really fair fight. The challenger might have less tension in his political base, but he still has to give the middle non-partisan electorate a reason to fire Dennis Moore in a Presidential election year. So far he is the epitome of a Blue Dog moderate rural Democrat with flashes of progressivism. A Kansas Democrat.
Dennis Moore is more than just a Democrat, he is a good fit for this district, and he is well liked. He is not in trouble, yet. And Moore is a polished enough campaigner not to give Jordan ammo to throw at him. Not likely to lay a campaign stink bomb like Jim Ryun did over in KS-2 in 2006
We have to watch this race but this seems a case of right candidate, wrong year for the GOP to me.
I’m not trying to be a stinker, but D-Mo is hardly a rural Democrat. Yes, he is a member of the Blue Dogs, but his district encompasses Kansas City, KS. The Johnson County area is KS-3 is completely suburban and contains the wealthy suburbs of Kansas City, MO (KCMO). The Wyandotte County part of the district is the completely urban Kansas City, Kansas (KCK), a minority-majority city with deep post-industrial blues (think a mini-Detroit, like Flint, MI or Gary, IN). The Douglas County part of the district is the east side of the relatively liberal college town of Lawrence (its a streach to call anything in KS progressive).
Really, KS-3 is demographically solid D, it’s partisan scores based on Presidential votes are misleading becuase an uncontested state like KS heavily skews Presidential votes. All three Wyandotte State-Senators are liberal Democrats. More and more progressive urbanites are moving to Johnson County from KCMO (really a minature effect of what is going on in Fairfax, VA). This effect isn’t just visible with Moore, but also returns on the AG and Gov. races.
On top of the solidifying D nature of the district, Moore is incredibly popular, winning huge majority of independants and dems (the field operation I worked on polled our results thusly: Dems: 94%, Ind.: 86%: Rep.:32%). A solidified Republican vote won’t keep this hugely funded, long term Johnson County Prosecutor from wiping the floor with whoever the right throws at him. It is accepted CW in the KC area that even if Reagan were re-incarnated, he couldn’t take down Dennis Moore.
Republicans went hard after Moore in 2002 and 2004, which were too great Republican years, and still came up short. If they didn’t get him then, they wont get him in 2008.
I’m concerned but right now, I think Moore has a distinct advantage. As has been said, the Republicans couldn’t beat Moore in 2002 and 2004, in strongly Republican years, how can they expect to beat him in what is shaping up to be a much more Democratic year?