Campaign and Election News – Covering Key Races Around the Country
SSP Daily Digest: 4/30 (Morning Edition)
NH-Everything: UNH is out with their latest Granite State poll, and the results aren’t particularly appetizing. Kelly Ayotte leads Paul Hodes by 47-31 in the Senate race, and even Bill Binnie and Ovide Lamontagne claim razor-thin leads, too. In the 1st CD, Carol Shea-Porter trails Frank Guinta by 42-38, Rich Ashooh by 39-36, and Sean Mahoney by 40-37. In the 2nd, ex-Rep. Charlie Bass leads Katrina Swett by 44-27, and is ahead of Ann McLane Kuster by 42-30.
FL-Sen: Perhaps sensing this race was just too boring, billionaire real estate investor Jeff Greene is throwing his hat into the Democratic Senate primary against Kendrick Meek.
CA-Gov: Steve Poizner is going after Meg Whitman hard over her past tenure on the board of Goldman Sachs in a new ad. I like this primary!
CO-Gov: Denver Mayor John Hickenlooper reported raising $1.1 million in the first quarter, even though he didn’t enter the race until halfway through January. His opponent, Republican ex-Rep. Scott McInnis, raised only $550K. (D)
OH-15: Republican retread Steve Stivers thinks he’s hit upon a new winning issue: He wants to repeal the 17th Amendment. That’s, uh, the one which requires senators to be directly elected by the people, rather than appointed by state legislatures. Weirdly, he claims it’s a “states rights” issue, which I guess makes sense, if by “states” you mean a bunch of elected elites. Maybe we can have an appointed president, too? What a freak. (D)
OH-18: Bad blood already brewing? ’08 Republican nominee and ex-state Agriculture Director Fred Dailey, who’s facing against state Sen. Bob Gibbs (and a dozen other teabaggers) in the primary to settle the rights to take on Zack Space, is crying foul over the state GOP’s favoritism of Gibbs. Dailey claims that someone from the state party contacted his campaign website operator to ask that his site be “taken down”, and that the party is steering prospective staffers to other races.
WV-01: State Sen. Mike Oliverio, waging a primary challenge against Dem Rep. Allan Mollohan, won’t commit to voting for Nancy Pelosi as Speaker of the House if he wins. Dick Morris (yeah, whu?) wanted him to commit to voting against her, so I guess this is a hopeful sign…? Meanwhile, the Republican primary is just as lively, with two candidates heavily investing in their own campaigns. (D)
25 thoughts on “SSP Daily Digest: 4/30 (Morning Edition)”
I remain very curious about just who exactly is donating hundreds of thousands of dollars to Mike Oliverio to compete in a Democratic primary. Though I do find it very amusing that after being feted in all of the Nutting/Ogden Media papers, and going to events like this one, that Dick Morris would say Oliverio can’t win in November – while Oliverio is in the audience.
It’s frustrating when already not-so-progressive Dems face primary challenges from super-duper-muper conservative Dems. In any case, there’s only been one Dem who hasn’t voted for his party leader as Speaker this entire decade (Gene Taylor, and he did it once), so this isn’t something parties typically worry about.
What does “whu” stand for again?
This is without a doubt, one of the most critical house races in the entire country. Mary Kilroy has been a down the line, positive liberal voice for a city that has been growing into a new-era bastion of liberalism (Columbus). This hack that’s running against her, Stivers, is a bass-ackward politician from the rural reaches of the district that has a knack for legislating morality down people’s throats and screwing cities, towns, and virtually any area that is a little bit built up.
This isn’t a case of possibly losing a blue dog and getting it replaced with an independent conservative type. In OH-15, either we keep one of the more reliable votes in the House, or we subject ourselves to an absolute whacko. If I was the DCCC, this district would be right at the top of my spending list. Swing districts like this in swing states like Ohio are the districts that we absolutely, positively cannot afford to lose in November.
Kirk is up 46-38 in this poll. The last Ras poll had Kirk up 41-38 in early April.
I’m not a fan of Ras, but the regression of this race looks somewhat accurate. Alexi has some problems regarding his family’s bank. I think a 5% drop as a result is expected. However, I think this race is tighter than this poll indicates. Kirk is probably ahead, but by an amount that is within the margin of error.
Ok I’m at work right now and was bored out of my mind, so I started crunching numbers for the 3-way race in Florida. Here is my very unprofessional number crunching results!
Based off of CNN exit polling from 2008 (the last statewide race featuring an AA), 2006 (last Crist statewide race and mid-term election), and 2004 (the last GOP hispanic candidate).
First the polling from those races:
Exit polling in Florida for 2004:
Total voters: 7,548,066
AA voters: 981,249/12%
Latin voters: 1,132,210/15%
White Voters: 5,359,127/71%
Exit polling in Florida for 2006:
Total voters: 4,638,717
AA voters: 603,033/14%
Latin voters: 695808/11%
White Voters: 3,293,489/72%
Exit polling in Florida for 2008:
Total voters: 8,327,698
AA voters: 1,082,601/13%
Latin voters: 1,249,155/14%
White Voters: 5,912,666/71%
As you can see the numbers hover around the same percentage rates. For my numbers I just used the lowest in all instances just to not give any biased feeling towards any one race. Here is what I have come up with as to the percent range and winner of the 2010 Senate race:
Kendrick Meek = 45%
Marco Rubio = 29%
Charlie Crist = 23%
The way I came up with these numbers; was using all three election years for all three times one of the three candidates/or races were in the election that year. Meaning in 2008, Barack Obama was the AA on the ballot in FL so I used the exit polling on AA of 2008 for that number; and so on for the rest, Crist in 2006 and Martinez in 2004. Completely unscientific but I think its a true representation of how these folks will vote. Now will Meek get 45% of the vote, probably not. I attribute the difference to it being an anti-DC attitude as well as anti-democrat.
But I do feel this will come to getting out the base instead of independents. I didn’t include them in these numbers, because there was no race where a major candidate of one party left to go to the independent side. So there was no basis of recent times. Plus, independents are not much of a voting block here in Florida, and I don’t think will make much of a difference in this race.
Please feel free to ask questions and help or add to my analysis. Thanks!
We’re going to find out if Republicans would really vote against Christ himself if he were a Democrat:
I remain very curious about just who exactly is donating hundreds of thousands of dollars to Mike Oliverio to compete in a Democratic primary. Though I do find it very amusing that after being feted in all of the Nutting/Ogden Media papers, and going to events like this one, that Dick Morris would say Oliverio can’t win in November – while Oliverio is in the audience.
It’s frustrating when already not-so-progressive Dems face primary challenges from super-duper-muper conservative Dems. In any case, there’s only been one Dem who hasn’t voted for his party leader as Speaker this entire decade (Gene Taylor, and he did it once), so this isn’t something parties typically worry about.
What does “whu” stand for again?
This is without a doubt, one of the most critical house races in the entire country. Mary Kilroy has been a down the line, positive liberal voice for a city that has been growing into a new-era bastion of liberalism (Columbus). This hack that’s running against her, Stivers, is a bass-ackward politician from the rural reaches of the district that has a knack for legislating morality down people’s throats and screwing cities, towns, and virtually any area that is a little bit built up.
This isn’t a case of possibly losing a blue dog and getting it replaced with an independent conservative type. In OH-15, either we keep one of the more reliable votes in the House, or we subject ourselves to an absolute whacko. If I was the DCCC, this district would be right at the top of my spending list. Swing districts like this in swing states like Ohio are the districts that we absolutely, positively cannot afford to lose in November.
http://www.rasmussenreports.co…
Kirk is up 46-38 in this poll. The last Ras poll had Kirk up 41-38 in early April.
I’m not a fan of Ras, but the regression of this race looks somewhat accurate. Alexi has some problems regarding his family’s bank. I think a 5% drop as a result is expected. However, I think this race is tighter than this poll indicates. Kirk is probably ahead, but by an amount that is within the margin of error.
Ok I’m at work right now and was bored out of my mind, so I started crunching numbers for the 3-way race in Florida. Here is my very unprofessional number crunching results!
Based off of CNN exit polling from 2008 (the last statewide race featuring an AA), 2006 (last Crist statewide race and mid-term election), and 2004 (the last GOP hispanic candidate).
First the polling from those races:
Exit polling in Florida for 2004:
Total voters: 7,548,066
AA voters: 981,249/12%
Latin voters: 1,132,210/15%
White Voters: 5,359,127/71%
Exit polling in Florida for 2006:
Total voters: 4,638,717
AA voters: 603,033/14%
Latin voters: 695808/11%
White Voters: 3,293,489/72%
Exit polling in Florida for 2008:
Total voters: 8,327,698
AA voters: 1,082,601/13%
Latin voters: 1,249,155/14%
White Voters: 5,912,666/71%
As you can see the numbers hover around the same percentage rates. For my numbers I just used the lowest in all instances just to not give any biased feeling towards any one race. Here is what I have come up with as to the percent range and winner of the 2010 Senate race:
Kendrick Meek = 45%
Marco Rubio = 29%
Charlie Crist = 23%
The way I came up with these numbers; was using all three election years for all three times one of the three candidates/or races were in the election that year. Meaning in 2008, Barack Obama was the AA on the ballot in FL so I used the exit polling on AA of 2008 for that number; and so on for the rest, Crist in 2006 and Martinez in 2004. Completely unscientific but I think its a true representation of how these folks will vote. Now will Meek get 45% of the vote, probably not. I attribute the difference to it being an anti-DC attitude as well as anti-democrat.
But I do feel this will come to getting out the base instead of independents. I didn’t include them in these numbers, because there was no race where a major candidate of one party left to go to the independent side. So there was no basis of recent times. Plus, independents are not much of a voting block here in Florida, and I don’t think will make much of a difference in this race.
Please feel free to ask questions and help or add to my analysis. Thanks!
We’re going to find out if Republicans would really vote against Christ himself if he were a Democrat:
http://www.swingstateproject.c…