Primary Preview

  • IN-03 (R): Republican incumbent Mark Souder, a notorious under-performer in this deeply Republican district, may finally be running out of rope. A recent SUSA poll only gave Souder a 35-29 edge over auto dealer Bob Thomas, with attorney and former Dan Coats staffer Phil Troyer gobbling up nearly 20%. One way or the other, though, Souder’s time in Congress is rapidly coming to a close — he recently told Brian Howey that he’s strongly inclined to retire in 2012 if he survives this dogfight.
  • IN-04  (R): With incumbent Republican Steve Buyer making this term his last in this deeply Republican suburban donut district, the GOP primary is where it’s at. Secretary of State Todd Rokita may think he has control of the two turntables and the microphone in this race, but state Sen. Brandt Hershman has been raising a respectable sum of cash, and has Buyer’s endorsement. State Sen. Mike Young is also in the mix, but his fundraising is barely existent.
  • IN-05 (R): If there was ever a year to give GOP Rep. Dan Burton’s ass the boot, it’s this one. After winning a surprisingly close primary contest against former Marion County Coroner John McGoff, four viable Republicans have stepped up to challenge Burton this year — including McGoff again, himself. Joining McGoff are state Rep. Mike Murphy, ex-state Rep. Luke Messer, and former Dan Quayle/Dan Coats staffer Brose McVey. With a field chopped up in so many ways, Burton just may survive.
  • IN-08 (R): Republicans were caught off guard in this district after Democrats managed to beam up incumbent Rep. Brad Ellsworth to the Senate race, and lack a well-known name to take advantage of this open seat. However, NRCC-types like surgeon Larry Buschon, who has managed to bank a decent amount of coin for his bid, but he’ll have to fight through a field crowded with seven other candidates, including teabagger fave Kristi Risk. The theory swirling around the tubes is that, since this district is ground zero for John Hostettler nut-wing Republicans, Hostettler’s Senate campaign may excite enough ‘baggers to threaten Buschon. I’d be surprised if that’s how this one plays out, though.
  • IN-09 (R): Douchebag ex-Rep. Mike Sodrel is making his fifth crack at this seat, but he’s facing somewhat stiff competition in the primary from attorney Todd Young. Also waiting in the wings is teabagger Travis Hankins, who has raised enough scrilla to keep himself in the game.
  • NC-Sen (D): North Carolina Democrats will head to the polls to pick between Secretary of State Elaine Marshall, ex-state Sen. Cal Cunningham, and attorney Ken Lewis for the right to take on frosh GOP Sen. Richard Burr in November. One of these candidates will need to break the 40% barrier in order to avoid a June runoff. While no one has polled close to that marker yet, local boy Tom Jensen is betting that one of Cunningham (the man with the money) or Marshall (the name you know) will cross that barrier.
  • NC-08 (R): Republicans have been licking their chops over the chance to dethrone Larry Kissell after just one term in the House, but their field of candidates is decidedly second-tier. Businessman Tim d’Annunzio has spent nearly $1 million, making him something of a favorite — but he’s also racked up a long list of unflattering incidents on the campaign trail that suggest that while his campaign may be well-funded, it’s completely unhinged. D’Annuzio will face ex-sportscaster Harold Johnson, retired Army Col. Lou Huddleston, and engineer Hal Jordan in the primary. It wouldn’t be a shock to see this one go to a runoff.
  • NC-11 (R): This one may not rank very highly on the GOP’s target list, but Republicans have a number of warm bodies in the race against sophomore Dem Rep. Heath Shuler, in case things get interesting. Businessman Jeff Miller and ophthalmologist Dan Eichenbaum have both spent over $100K on their campaigns as of mid-April, while Hendersonville Mayor Greg Newman is running on spare change and a pocketful of dreams.