We’ve got a couple hours to go before polls start to close (a ridiculously early 6 pm in Indiana, followed by 7:30 closings in Ohio and North Carolina), so, as always, let’s open things up for your predictions about how tonight’s going to play out. Can relic Dan Coats summon up enough establishment mojo to repel the twin teabagging terrors of John Hostettler and Marlin Stutzman in Indiana? Can Lee Fisher put away Jennifer Brunner easily, or are we going to have a real fight on our hands? And can either Elaine Marshall or Cal Cunningham clear the 40% bar in North Carolina to avoid a resource-sapping runoff? (Sorry, no babka at stake today… just bragging rights.)
To mentally prepare yourself for these deep questions, please refer to our preview from yesterday of all these races and more. (One more race we should add to the list of things to watch: the GOP primary in NC-10, where even right-wing Patrick McHenry may be feeling some heat in his dark-red district for insufficient teabagging.) And feel free to let us know what other races you’ll be watching!
I think the establishment wins out — Dan Coats wins an unimpressive victory, and Dan Burton eeeks out a minority win over divided opposition.
Fisher by 18 points. The real surprise will be in the downticket Ohio races where a tea partier will win the GOP primary for Ohio Auditor.
Also, look at the OH-SOS GOP primary. That could get interesting.
Can relic Dan Coats summon up enough establishment mojo to repel the twin teabagging terrors of John Hostettler and Marlin Stutzman in Indiana? Yes. Coats will defeat Hos by 10 points, with Stuzman closely behnd Hos.
Can Lee Fisher put away Jennifer Brunner easily, or are we going to have a real fight on our hands? Fisher wins by 20, putting away Brunner easily.
And can either Elaine Marshall or Cal Cunningham clear the 40% bar in North Carolina to avoid a resource-sapping runoff? I seriously doubt there will be a runoff. I doubt that Lewis and others will muster more than 20% of the vote. It’s quite possible that Marshall and Cunningham both obtain over 40%. I’m giving Marshall a 45-36 advantage.
Fisher demolishes Brunner in Ohio. In Indiana, Dan Coats by a hair with the twin teabaggers battling it out for second place. In the great state of North Carolina, we will be headed to a runoff between Cal Cunningham and Elaine Marshall with the latter barely ahead in the primary vote.
You guys should be ashamed of yourselves, you’ll be hearing from my ninja-chicken assassins 😀
Seriously, here’s dgm’s angry predictions of DOOOOOM (why are they angry and of doom? Because, it’s so much more dramatic ;))
IN: Coates 42%, Hostettler 29%, Stutzman 19%, if anyone else is running 10%, if not add 3 to Hos and 7 to Stutzman (42/32/26)
NC: Cunningham 43%, Marshall 41%, everyone else 16%
OH: Fisher 58%, Brunner 42%
OH-Sen:
Fisher – 58%
Brunner – 42%
NC-Sen:
Marshall – 43%
Cunningham – 39%
Lewis – 18%
IN-Sen:
Coats – 47%
Hostettler – 36%
Stutzman – 17%
I’d guess Marshall will get about 45% of the vote and win without a runoff in NC.
Coats will probably win, and it sucks, though I think Democrats should be glad its him and not Stutzman even though Coats has the largest margins right now, that’s mainly name recognition. He’s a bad candidate for this kind of environment, a lobbyist with all sorts of wonderful baggage. Stutzman is a clean, outsider with a good deal of charisma. Ideally we’d want Hostettler, but Stutzman has divided his base of supporters. If only Indiana had a runoff system….
I’d say Lee Fisher puts Brunner away with more than 60% of the vote.
How am I suppose to find out what it tastes like?
My desires:
Fisher in a walk. Burton and Souder lose.
Cunningham wins big.
Hostettler or Stutzman win (edge to Stutzman).
My PREDICTION:
Fisher wins easily. Coats gets an unimpressive plurality win. Burton and Souder hang on, but get a good scare.
Marshall and Cunningham in a runoff. Marshall with a small lead over Cunningham.
INDIANA – Coats 40, Hostettler 32, Stutzman 23
OHIO – Fisher 62, Brunner 38
NORTH CAROLINA – Marshall 40, Cunningham 38, Lewis 11 –
No Runoff
Ohio Senate:Fisher-60%
Brunner-40%
Indiana Senate:Coats-46%
Stutzman-29%
Hostettler-25%
North Carolina: Marshall-50%
Cunningham-36%
Lewis- 14%
Coats over Stutzman and Hostettler 45, 35, 25.
Fisher 60-40.
Marshall over Cunningham and Lewis 45, 40, 15.
I’ll be interested to see if Brunner upticks at all over the polls, due possibly to all the out-of-state phone calls made by Netrooters in her behalf.
In Indiana both Souder and Burton win with less than 50%. But Young beats Sodrel, ending his political career once and for all.
North Carolina:
Marshall-43%
Cunningham-37%
Lewis-17%
Other-3%
Indiana:
Coats-41%
Stutzman-32%
Hostettler-27%
Ohio:
Fisher- 62%
Brunner-38%
IN: Coats wins by an unimpressive margin, Stutzman an unexpected second, Host dead last. Burton narrowly loses to Luke Messer, with McVey a strong third. This is all based entirely on lawn signs in Carmel, North Indy, and Shelbyville, and on deductive reasoning that could be flawed, so obviously all completely unscientific.
OH: Fisher by about 13. (Wouldn’t it be ironic if it were close enough that Brunner demanded a recount? There’s no way that could be good for anyone not named Rob Portman.)
NC: Neither of the Dems clears 40% (Marshall ahead in the high 30’s). Biggest missed opportunity of the cycle. McHenry narrowly survives his primary, but gets one hell of a good scare and spends the rest of his time in Congress regurgitating Glenn Beck. (It’s how teabaggers feed their young, apparently).
I could get every single race wrong. It wouldn’t surprise me in the slightest. I would expect surprises tonight in terms of Indiana races. I could see some baggers shocking everyone and pulling through. I’m not totally familiar with all of the House races so I did my best. As for the Democrats with primary races, I think all House members will pull it through in the nineties.
IN Senate
Coats 35
Hostettler 32
Stutzman 26
Bates 5
Others 4
IN 2 – To be honest I’m not too familiar with this, so it’s a pure guess.
Walorski 55
Jordan 45
IN 3 would not be slightly surprised if Thomas gets it.
Souder-43
Thomas 40
Troyer 17
IN 4
Rokita 46
Hershman 40
Young 14
IN 5
Burton 34
Murphy 23
McGoff 20
Messer 15
McVey 8
IN 8 I don’t know all of the teabaggers running so I’ll give them a grand total
Buschon 60
Nuts 40
IN 9 my district
Sodrel 40
Hankins 35
Young 25
This is some analysis I wrote yesterday, I thought I would put it here to.
I think pretty much anything can happen. All races are tossups. In all reality we’ve seen only one primary poll so that’s all I have to judge on. I think Coats will probably win but it will be close. I still have some hope that Hoss can pull through, but in all reality Coats isn’t exactly a dream candidate, so it’s all good. I also think Sodrel will pull it through with Hankins in a close second. Young is the only one who I’ve seen in terms of ads but the baggers love Hankins. I doubt Buschon will lose, but I could be wrong (No polling after all). I think Burton might pull through simply because there are so many challengers. I’m not sure what to say about Souder, it will be close, and I could easily see him losing. I haven’t seen any polls, but Rokita might slip by do to name rec, and that’s what we want. I think he is probably moderate, not too much so, but I did hear him describe himself as a John McCain Republican (when it meant something in 08). Sorry for the long sentence.
Now onto non IN races
NC Senate
Marshall 45
Cunnigham 37
Lewis 18
OH Senate
Fisher 59
Brunner 41
I think Marshall will get over the 40% needed, and I think (and hope) Fisher beats Brunner by a good margin.
the shocker of the evening(or at least take it late into the night)
and marshall will win with the required 40%+
MSNBC says ‘In Indiana, polls close in the eastern part of the state at 6:00 pm ET and in the western part at 7:00 pm ET.’
Just finished voting in the Republican primary in Indiana for the lovely teabaggers John Hostettler (IN-Sen) and Travis Hankins (IN-09). I feel pretty dirty doing it, but I hope they win so we can crush them in November.
Very low turnout at the precinct where I was — low all day, they told me. There were a couple of signs for Sodrel, one for Hill, and one for LaRouchie John Bottorff (whose slogan is “Jobs now!). No signs for any of the Senate candidates. I also met the Libertarian candidate for IN-09, Greg Knott, who seems like a nice guy. He was rooting against a Sodrel victory in the primary, but I’m not really sure why. He told me he was the only candidate in the general election who was going to bring the troops home, so apparently he’s running to the left.
Please Cunningham/Marshall/Lewis, do it for SSPers.
IN-Sen
Coats: 38
Hustettler: 24
Stutzman: 26
Other: 12
OH-Sen
Fisher: 53
Brunner: 38
Other: 9
NC-Sen
Marshall: 39
Cunningham: 36
Lewis: 19
Other: 6
Indiana Sen
Coats 40%
Stutzman 28%
Hosteletter 27%
Ohio Sen
Fischer 59%
Brunner 41%
NC Sen
Marshall 44%
Cunningham 37%
Other 19%
OH: Fisher wins big.
IN: Hos and Stutz split the teabagger vote, allowing Coats to sneak through.
NC: Marshall barely avoids a runoff.
Indiana:
Coats – 42
Hostettler – 28
Stutzman – 25
Other – 5
North Carolina:
Marshall – 43
Cunningham – 36
Lewis – 15
Other – 6
Ohio:
Fisher – 64
Brunner – 36