Elway Poll (4/29-5/2, registered voters):
Patty Murray (D-inc): 51
Dino Rossi (R): 34
Undecided: 15Patty Murray (D-inc): 51
Don Benton (R): 27
Undecided: 22Patty Murray (D-inc): 50
Paul Akers (R): 26
Undecided: 24Patty Murray (D-inc): 50
Clint Didier(R): 24
Undecided: 26
(MoE: ±5%)
Looks like that SurveyUSA poll that gave a 10-point lead to Dino Rossi (and was subsequently dismissed by both campaigns) has “outlier” written all over it. Elway, probably the best-regarded local pollster in Washington, takes a first look at the Senate race and finds Patty Murray in very solid shape, leading by double-digits and hitting 50% against not only the minor opposition but against Rossi as well. Elway also, in the fine print, does some extrapolating to project “likely voter” and “perfect voter” models, and finds that Murray still wins those scenarios, including a 49-40 win among “perfect voters.”
Add to that a new Rasmussen poll today that, like the previous Rasmussen effort, finds Murray with a 2-point lead over Rossi and breaking 50 against the minor announced candidates. Obviously not as good a result as Elway, but taking the source into consideration, it’s a double-whammy that should give Rossi serious pause about whether this is the race where he wants to put his credibility on the line one last time.
Polling memo over the jump:
Murray will win this race.
That SUSA poll was crap. Rossi will not get into the race and if he does the media should look at it as a Rethug failure, not a big win for Big John.
Where was I when they decided third-time retreads are a big recruiting score?
In that like Pataki, Rossi doesn’t seem too enthusiastic about running but is taking a long while to completely rule it out. I do think that in the end he passes (and basically any real chance the GOP has to take back the Senate this cycle, even in 2006 and 2008 the Dems didn’t get a PERFECT sweep of all of the competitive races).
I predict that on election night, the MSM will still be scratching their collective heads, wondering why 1994 didn’t happen again.
FWIW, I don’t think we have to worry even in the slim chance that Rossi does run.
I’m sure that the Ellway Poll is an accurate measure of current opinion in the state. I looked the internals of the Survey USA poll and couldn’t believe who Republican their King County sample was. It just didn’t make sense.
I’ve talked to several people working on Murray’s campaign and Ellway’s polling data is close to the results of their internal polling. I’ve also been told that the Rossi-commissioned poll got a very similar result.
The only one who needs to worry now is Rob McKenna because he’ll probably have to face off against Rossi in the 2012 gubernatorial primary.