StephenCLE’s 2010 Senate Predictions – Part 1

So, up to this point, I have kept my prognostications reserved for the lower house of Congress.  For the most part I’ve wanted to see things unfold a bit on the Senate side.  But now I feel as though I’ve gotten enough of a feel for the candidates and the electorate to make an accurate baseline prediction on all the competitive Senate races this cycle.  As with my House baseline predictions from 2 months ago, I’ll go through every race, but obviously most of my attention will be turned to the toss-up and lean races.

The Senate this cycle is very much up for grabs, with 12, 13, maybe 14 races being considered competitive.  It’s going to be fun to watch.  The bad news for Team Blue is that they’ve got at least 2-3 seats going out the door immediately.  But Team Red can’t get too far ahead of themselves, because they’ve got quite a few vulnerable seats of their own.  At present the Democrats hold the Senate majority with 59 seats to the Republicans 41, meaning that the Republicans would need to rattle off 10 seats without losing any of their own to retake the body.  I’ll tackle the Senate in 3 parts, starting today in the east and going westward over the next week or so.

Part 1 – Northeast, Mid-Atlantic, Upper South, South Atlantic

Part 2 – Eastern Great Lakes, Western Great Lakes, South Gulf, Central Plains

Part 3 – Rocky Mountains, Pacific Coast

Northeast Region:

Maine – no election

New Hampshire – Open (Republican) – This seat looked to be a great pickup opportunity back in 2009 when Paul Hodes jumped into the race, but the environment has really hurt Dem chances in this notoriously independent and swingish state.  Popular attorney general Kelly Ayotte has led Hodes by 7-10 points in most public polls of the race the past few months.  While there is still a possibility that Ayotte will get knocked off in the GOP primary, I don’t see it happening.  Winning isn’t impossible for Hodes, but he will have to work extremely hard against Ayotte and the red tide, which will probably be amplified in a state like New Hampshire.

State PVI – D+1

Stephen’s Rating – Lean R

Prediction – Moderate Rep Hold

Vermont – Patrick Leahy (Democrat) – Leahy is sitting pretty in one of the most democratic states in the nation and only token opposition.  No way he loses.

State PVI – D+13

Stephen’s Rating – Solid D

Prediction – Solid Dem Hold

Massachusetts – no election

Rhode Island – no election

Connecticut – Open (Democrat) – This seat was one of the Democrats’ most vulnerable until Chris Dodd decided to call it quits.  In the open seat race, popular AG Richard Blumenthal has stepped up and is polling great against all Republican opposition, including former representative Rob Simmons and WWE CEO Linda McMahon, who are dueling for the GOP nomination.  Blumenthal doesn’t have a great reputation as a debater or a campaigner, which gives me a little bit of pause, but honestly, unless he completely implodes, I don’t see either republican being able to beat him in a blue state like CT.  Arguably McMahon would have the better shot seeing as she’s got the cash, but she also has a lot of baggage.

State PVI – D+7

Stephen’s Rating – Likely D

Prediction – Strong Dem Hold

New York – Chuck Schumer (Democrat) & Kirsten Gillibrand (Democrat) – New York is the one state that has two Senate races this year.  One race is already over before it begins, as Chuck Schumer is probably the safest democratic member of the Senate this cycle.  The other seat held by Kirsten Gillibrand, seems to be a bit more guarded because for whatever reason, a lot of base democrats haven’t gotten behind her.  The Republicans were banking on a big name candidate, either former NYC mayor Rudy Giuliani or former governor George Pataki to jump in.  But neither has made the plunge, and Gillibrand is over 50 against the other no namers in the race according to every polling outfit not rhyming with Assmussen.

State PVI – D+12

Stephen’s Rating – Solid D & Solid D

Prediction – Solid Dem Hold & Solid Dem Hold

Mid-Atlantic Region

New Jersey – no election

Delaware – Open (Democrat) – Now this is a major headache that hardly anybody saw coming at the start of the cycle.  Popular moderate GOP representative Mike Castle decided, at age 70, to run for the Senate, turning this seat from a solid democratic retention to a toss up.  Then the democrats got sucker punched again as presumptive candidate, AG Beau Biden, turned and ran like a scalded dog…err…decided not to get into the race.  Instead, Chris Coons is the democratic candidate.  This is a strong democratic stronghold, and Castle’s recent votes against HCR and other democratic agenda items popular in DE could cost him crossover votes, but ultimately, I think Castle picks this one up easily.

State PVI – R+7

Stephen’s Rating – Likely R

Prediction – Strong Rep Pickup (1st overall)

National Score – Republican +1

Pennsylvania – Arlen Specter (Democrat) – Now we hit what should be one of our hotly contested races of the cycle.  Arlen Specter, formerly of Team Red, now of Team Blue, is defending the seat against the uber-conservative Pat Toomey.  This race, depending on which polling outfit you believe in, has either Toomey ahead by 5-7 points or Specter ahead 6-8 points.  It’s a good thing the pollster.com line doesn’t follow each data point otherwise it’d be worse than the Dow Jones on crack.  This race also has a monkey wrench in the name of representative Joe Sestak, who is closing in on Specter in the democratic primary race.  If Sestak wins the primary, I’m not sure what effect that would have on the general, but it probably wouldn’t be much.  At any rate, I’m going to assume that Specter gets through to face Toomey.  And if that matchup occurs, I think Specter wins handily.  Why?  Specter is a cold-blooded campaigner that will greatly expose Toomey’s bad attempt at moderation.  Also, Specter defeated Toomey among republican primary voters in 2004.  Do you really expect me to believe that PA as a whole will be more conservative this year than GOP primary voters were 6 years ago?  Not a chance.  Once Toomey is outed as the wingnut he is, Specter will consolidate Dems and win independents outright and win this thing going away.

State PVI – D+2

Stephen’s Rating – Lean D

Prediction – Moderate Dem Hold

Maryland – Barbara Mikulski (Democrat) – Mikulski, who sits in one of the nation’s more democratic states, looks good to go for another term.  The NRSC allegedly tried for months to spread rumors that she was retirement, but now that the filing deadline has passed, they are left to face the music.

State PVI – D+10

Stephen’s Rating – Solid D

Prediction – Solid Dem Hold

Upper South Region

Virginia – no election

West Virginia – no election

Kentucky – Open (Republican) – This seat was the Republicans’ version of Connecticut, as unpopular senator Jim Bunning was imploding.  But like Chris Dodd, he jumped out, and now the open seat is the site of not one, but two contested primaries.  On the republican side, establishment favorite SOS Trey Grayson faces outsider fave Rand Paul.  Much to the chagrin of the national GOP and the NRCC, it appears that Paul is headed to victory.  On the democratic side, the outcome is much less clear.  2004 senate candidate and Lt. Gov Daniel Mongiardo faces off with state AG Jack Conway.  This race is close, with most polls putting Mongiardo ahead in the single digits.  Conway is without a doubt the better general election candidate.  I can’t really put a finger on the outcome without knowing who the Dem candidate will be, but since Mongiardo has the advantage currently, I don’t like Team Blue’s chances.  If Conway beats him the race will move in the Dem direction, probably to Toss Up.

State PVI – R+10

Stephen’s Rating – Likely R

Prediction – Strong Rep Hold

Tennessee – no election

North Carolina – Richard Burr (Republican) – Now we get to North Carolina, home of perhaps the nation’s most anonymous senator, Richard Burr.  He consistently gets 30% or so that don’t even have an opinion of him in polls, and recent data shows that he’s only up 6-9 points on his democratic challengers.  Speaking of the democratic primary, SOS Elaine Marshall and Cal Cunningham are heading to a runoff election next month.  All general election polls I have seen don’t seem to suggest one candidate is more electable than the other.  This race is one in which the national environment matters a lot because the electorate doesn’t know the candidates as well as the R or D next to their name.  For now, I see Burr getting by, but if the economy improves and health care benefits start trickling in, upping the popularity of HCR, either Marshall or Cunningham has a great shot due to the recent leftward turn of the state and the strong local operation of the NC Democratic Party.

State PVI – R+4

Stephen’s Rating – Lean R

Prediction – Moderate Rep Hold

Deep South Atlantic Region

South Carolina – Jim Demint (Republican) – Demint is the most conservative member of the Senate, and while the Democrats would certainly like to knock him off, this is a tough state to do so, and an even tougher year in which to accomplish it.  Plus, their candidates are weak.  Demint is safe.

State PVI – R+9

Stephen’s Rating – Solid R

Prediction – Solid Rep Hold

Georgia – Johnny Isakson (Republican) – This seat was a huge recruiting fail for the Democrats for most of the cycle as Isakson has been sporting poor favorables in most public polling.  Michael Thurmond (I think? Race tracker Wiki doesn’t even list him) has stepped forward for Team Blue, giving them a strong elected official to run against Isakson.  Admittedly I don’t know a whole heck of a lot about this race, but I think that it will be hard for Thurmond to replicate the Obama coalition of 2008 that nearly put Jim Martin over the top, namely because minority turnout is likely to be way down.  In a southern state like Georgia, that’s usually death, and unfortunately, I think it’s the primary reason why the underwhelming Isakson will roll on through without much difficulty.

State PVI – R+6

Stephen’s Rating – Likely R

Prediction – Strong Rep Hold

Florida – Open (Republican) – Now this is a fun race.  What looked to be a done deal for the GOP months ago when governor Charlie Crist announced his candidacy descended into a brutal primary, then another sure thing with upstart Marco Rubio, and finally now into a triple threat match where anything could happen.  Rubio, the republican candidate, is running as the true conservative in the race.  Kendrick Meek, the democratic candidate, is the unabashed liberal that stood in even when the race looked impossible.  And in the middle is Crist, running as an independent and pretty much picking and choosing positions that might get him elected.  Needless to say, this is a hard, hard race to call, much more so than a typical toss up race.  There’s an argument to be made that any of the three could conceivably win, but I’m going with Crist because for whatever reason, base democrats either don’t know Meek or are lukewarm about him.  My guess at this point is that Crist is still very popular among unaffiliated voters, and if he can eat into democrats because of Meek’s lack of name recognition, that will be more than enough to win.  It’ll be very interesting to see how this one plays out.

State PVI – R+2

Stephen’s Rating – Toss Up

Prediction – Weak Ind Pickup

National Score – Republican +.5

Eastern US Recap – So far, we have 2 seats turning over.  Mike Castle’s win in Delaware turns that seat from blue to red, and Charlie Crist’s win in Florida makes that seat go from red to independent green.  Since we don’t know who Crist would caucus with, if he caucuses at all, the Republicans lose .5 of a seat there, giving them an advantage of .5 seats so far.  

In the next edition, we head into the Central US, where competitive races in Ohio, Indiana, Illinois, and Missouri dominate the narrative.