Research 2000 for Daily Kos (5/3-5, likely voters, 3/29-31 in parens):
John McCain (R-inc): 48 (52)
J.D. Hayworth (R): 36 (37)
Other: 6
Undecided: 10 (11)
(MoE: ±5%)Rodney Glassman (D): 35 (33)
John McCain (R-inc): 48 (52)
Undecided: 17 (15)Rodney Glassman (D): 42 (37)
J.D. Hayworth (R): 43 (48)
Undecided: 15 (15)
(MoE: ±4%)
All around, you have got to love those weak numbers for Mac The Knife! McCain’s favorables have taken a dip from 47-46 in late March to 43-52 in this poll. What’s especially remarkable about all of these numbers is that, of all the Senate and gubernatorial match-ups, McCain is the only Republican to earn double-digit support from Hispanic voters… and just barely so at a mere 10% of the vote! (Recall that 40% of Arizona Hispanics voted for McCain’s Presidential bid in 2008.)
The gube numbers:
Jan Brewer (R): 32
Buz Mills (R): 14
Dean Martin (R): 13
John Munger (R): 5
Undecided: 36
(MoE: ±5%)Terry Goddard (D): 48
Jan Brewer (R-inc): 42
Undecided: 10Terry Goddard (D): 47
Dean Martin (R): 35
Undecided: 18Terry Goddard (D): 48
Buz Mills (R): 34
Undecided: 18Terry Goddard (D): 47
John Munger (R): 30
Undecided: 23
Remember when Jan Brewer was considered dead in the water in the Republican primary thanks to her apostasy on taxes? (One Rasmussen poll even had her at 10%!) Looks like that was nothing that some good ol’ fashioned racism couldn’t cure, although she’s still given a big assist from the fractured nature of the Republican primary field… and “Undecided” is currently beating her by four points.
Note that the general election numbers are extremely close to PPP’s take on this race in late April. One difference, though, is that PPP gave Brewer a more favorable performance among Hispanics. In their poll, Goddard was beating her by 71-25 among Hispanic voters, while R2K gives Goddard an even more commanding 74-9 lead in that demographic.
McNoMaverick still is a tough nut, but four months of pounding from Hayworth will take its effect. And assuming Glassman isn’t simply horrible, he can beat Hayworth.
………
How sweet would it be if dems picked up AZ and KY?
There would be no way for the media to say it was dempocalypes in November if that happened.
I just am crossing my fingers that Conway, Paul and Hayworth win their perspective primaries.
I suspect it’s Likely GOP if he’s the nominee, toss-up if Hayworth triumphs.
No one thought McCain would be so vulnerable, or else the state Dems or national Dems would have looked for and landed someone better.
But as it is, Glassman will likely have to do. I remember there was going to be a wealthy businesswoman or some such challenger jumping in, but I’ve heard nothing in awhile about that and assume Glassman is it. If so, maybe if everything goes right and he can raise some dough off some decent polling, he can pull off one of the biggest upsets ever! As long as McCain’s job approvals are upside down, Glassman’s got a shot. Of course, if it’s Hayworth, then, too, Glassman has a shot.
Today they came out with NC-Sen numbers showing Burr losing most of his margin from a month ago, down to 48-40 over Marshall. He’s still up 52-37 on Cunningham. But I suspect Marshall is all we should focus on, because the polling says so, and PPP smartly pointed out that the 3rd-wheel supporters in the first round lean toward her.
And Rasmussen also has the Dems suddenly taking decent leads in CT-Gov, a month after they were down by decent margins. Blumenthal still clears 50 by a few points while the Rethug choices all remain sub-40.
It looks like the improving economy might be slowly paying off, even though there’s not enough data yet to call it a trend.
to beat Hayworth the way the DSCC is burning through their money for Specter to beat Sestak?
Kos tweeted this observation: