in a hypothetical match-up against DFL-endorsed candidate Margaret Anderson Kelliher and the favorite to win the Independence Party nomination, Tom Horner, Emmer has a convincing lead.
According to the poll of 588 registered voters who say they’re likely to vote, Emmer leads Kelliher 41 to 33 percent. Horner is at 9 percent. Another 17 percent are undecided.
Univeristy of Minnesota political science professor Larry Jacobs said, “The Emmer campaign has locked down Republican support while the Democrat-endorsed candidate Margaret Anderson Kelliher is struggling to unify Democrats.”
Two other democrats running in a primary against Kelliher–Mark Dayton and Matt Entenza–also trail Emmer.
According to the poll, in a hypothetical race, Emmer leads Dayton by eight points–42 to 34. Horner is again at 9 percent and 15 percent are undecided.
The poll showed, Emmer leads Entenza 42 percent to 31 percent. In this hypothetical race, Horner pulls in 10 percent and 16 percent are undecided.
A look inside the numbers show three key things–Emmer leads Kelliher among women 39 percent to 36 percent.
Thirty-six percent percent of respondents self-identify themselves as Republicans, Compared to 35 percent Democrats and 24 percent Independent.
I find it hard to believe that Kelliher is virtually tied with Emmer among Women voters and that there are more people in this state that self identify as Republicans than Democrats. FWIW SUSA was consistently more favorable to Republicans in 2008 than Democrats in Minnesota. About this time of year they had Franken losing by double digits and Obama/McCain virtually tied.
Well, if she does get selected, she should be similar to Ginsburg. Not a bad thing, and perhaps even more liberal. Only time can tell on that. She isn’t old, at least, and the only health problem I can think of is her weight.
So if Republicans block her, she either will end up getting confirmed or there will finally be some change to filibusters (McCaskill might be able to get something done on that, anyway).
Keith Olbermann just mentioned Kristia Cavere in his Tea Time segment. After campaign staffer Brendan Quinn looked at the books, her campaign actually only has $12 in it, and not the $400,000 she had claimed.
She hasn’t answered why there’s such a… ah… discrepancy.
Most notably with the OH-Sen, they have Fisher up 1%.
I think their credibility will be shot if they have the outrageous numbers they were spewing earlier in the year as the elections get closer, because only one poll matters, and that’s the poll taken on the first Tuesday in November. If it looks like they are close to the General election numbers, people will believe they are a good pollster and the cycle can begin again.
Who would be a stronger general election candidate against Paul? I like Conway because he’s not a douschbag like Mongiardo but would he increase our chances of taking this seat?
Speaking of which, I went to the county auditor’s office this week to cast an early vote in the primary. Took less than 10 minutes!
Terry Branstad had an elective procedure this week to put a stent in a blocked artery. He is already out of the hospital, and his doctor issued a statement saying he is healthy enough to campaign and serve as governor.
I thought people would be interested in reading this smackdown he gave a whiny Brunner supporter who flamed him on DailyKos:
With all due respect, this isn’t my first rodeo, so to speak. I’ve live blogged before and will do it again because I think this is an important conversation to have. I respect and admire the netroots. But blogging alone doesn’t make you a progressive. A true progressive walks the walk, doesn’t just “blog the blog.”
A close look at my record as an activist Oberlin College, as the author of Ohio’s hate crime law, and a long-time vocal advocate for civil and equal rights, I’m proud to say i have been a progressive for decades, not just for the purposes of a political campaign. In fact, for seven years I led the Center for Families and Children, working with the most vulnerable populations in NE Ohio. When I talk about jobs, it’s not some abstract concept for me; I’ve worked hand to hand and face to face with people for whom a job meant far more than a paycheck. It provided them with the hope, dignity and purpose that they never before had in their lives.
Ohio’s progressive community was split between the Secretary of State and me. If i’m guilty of anything it’s that I didn’t do a good enough job communicating to many of you my long-time progressive record. So I invite you to take a look at my record at http://www.fisherforohio.com as we continue this conversation.
Sent that user crawling away with their tail between their legs. I think this deserves to go in some kind of hall of fame.
If people missed it, LG Fisher was on Dkos for an hour or so shaking hands, digitally speaking of course, and clearing up misconceptions that have been pounded around their by Brunner’s online supporters. He actually gave real responses, and came off very well, and I feel good about his chances because of his strong connection to labor, and his connections to NE Ohio, areas like Lorain and Lake County where he can really sweep Portman, who is from Cincinnati.
The man is a hypocrite. He likes to screw high class expensive whores and likes diapers, and yet he is still way ahead in polls.
Did IQ drop down to like 15 in Louisiana, or what??
WTF?!?!?!?
Everything at a municipal level is nonpartisan (officially). I got 3 races I am following statewide.
Galveston Mayor.
My friend and former city councilman Joe Jaworski is running for mayor. Joe was the democratic nominee against Republican State senator Mike Jackson in 2008. Joe is to be considered the frontrunner whose lead opponent is community volunteer Betty Massey who worked in the recovery after Hurricane Ike. Massey seems like she would be a good second choice if Joe loses. Bill Quiroga and Greg Roof are bad news, business republicans. Quiroga is especially troubling saying he’s only be on the clock part time and wants to eliminate ALL public housing (yes, he has a business interest in eliminating it).
It seems the city of Flower Mound, north of DFW in Denton county, has found a new way to get additional revenue by drilling the Barnett Shell natural gas well . . . next to elementary schools. The mayor, Jody Smith, is getting hammered for this and has gone hard negative on her opponent, Melissa Northern. Smith apparently has gotten Mike Huckabee’s endorsement as well as local GOP congressman Mike Burgess. Over 6,000 have early voted, which is how many signatures were gathered to protest the gas drilling. Guess who I am supporting.
Boring, boring boring. The Mayor is getting re-elected, but I have a friend running for the open city council in Place 6. Phil Kregel is a young Republican, but he means well and is pretty moderate on what matters to us in this college town. Should Phil not win, I hope for Hatice Salih, James King is standard big business Republican.
His “analysis” is just so astute that I think we should go ahead and swear Kelly Ayotte in tomorrow, election be damned! Apparently Ovide LaMontagne can beat Paul Hodes in November because he’s “personable” and “easy to like” while Hodes just wants to talk about George W. Bush all day.
The Indy Party nominated a former Republican for the gubernatorial election. That should certainly help us a lot more this time around considering they have a tea-bagger as their nominee, who will chase away the GOP leaning swing vote in the suburbs to Emmer, vs our nominee pushing the DFL leaning swing vote in the suburbs and cities to the Indy.
on the Tuesday primary elections in WV-1. The Democratic primary should be an interesting gauge on both the incumbent distaste as well as the Tea Party power in the Southern Democratic party. The local media has come out against Mollahan as corrupt, and the Oliverio camp seems rather boisterous about their chances.
was fantastic in my view. I think has Specter launched his attack later, it might have stuck. I’m an unabashed Sestak supporter but I really thought that response ad hit home.
I don’t even dispute Specter’s critiquing of Sestak’s career-ending demotion or whatever in the military. Worse things have happened in the world than being demoted for being demanding and such. He wasn’t charged with a crime or anything. Specter needed witnesses to whatever he did to be in his ad, i.e Swift Boating.
As for the whole payscale thing, that was debunked so easily by every media outlet. Media outlets even proved that if the same math was used on Specter’s staff, some of his staffers would be under minimum wage. (For thos ewho don’t know, Specter’s math involved looking at monthly pay and dividing bu fullt ime hours for the month. So part-time workers making $10 an hour would show up as making less than minimum wage is you divided their monthly earnings by full-time hours. It was silly).
The attendance record attack could have hurt more if he’d focused on it. Unfortunately I thinkt here will be a rebuttal there too. I think Sestak, while admitting less than stellar attendance, is going to point out that part of the time he missed votes he was with his father, a retired military man, who was dying. If Sestak puts out that ad, Specter is toast. IMHO
He raised only 365k, Pat Toomey raised 1.05 million for comparison. Specter spent 3.65 million, and has 5.8 million CoH. Toomey has 4.6 million. Of course, it looks like Sestak’s numbers could end up more important if his lead of Specter continues to build.
it’s an open thread and such. I’m intrigued to see how bennett and maybe specter and mccain vote in they lose their primaries. there’s no reason to vote anything but their conscience. Plus, unlike those retiring, their party screwed them over, so they don’t have much of a reason to keep quiet to preserve their reputation (or a chance at a comeback considering their ages). mccain and specter’s temperaments could make them especially amusing.
for Bennett and the possible major party candidates?
If Bennett is a lot more well known than the others, could he be viable as a “write-in”?
😉
I know who the Republican nominee will be when Scott Brown retires: Richard Ross.
When Brown ran for state House and gave up his seat on the Board of Selectmen, Ross succeeded him. When Brown resigned his house seat, Ross succeeded him. Now, Ross is running to replace him in the state senate.
Hes like a stalker.
with comments that was up a few hours ago but has since been pulled, or did I imagine it?
I posted this poll late last night in yesterday afternoons roundup thread bit for those who missed it SUSA is out with a poll of the MN Gov race.
http://kstp.com/article/storie…
I find it hard to believe that Kelliher is virtually tied with Emmer among Women voters and that there are more people in this state that self identify as Republicans than Democrats. FWIW SUSA was consistently more favorable to Republicans in 2008 than Democrats in Minnesota. About this time of year they had Franken losing by double digits and Obama/McCain virtually tied.
Fischer +1
http://realclearpolitics.blogs…
Well, if she does get selected, she should be similar to Ginsburg. Not a bad thing, and perhaps even more liberal. Only time can tell on that. She isn’t old, at least, and the only health problem I can think of is her weight.
So if Republicans block her, she either will end up getting confirmed or there will finally be some change to filibusters (McCaskill might be able to get something done on that, anyway).
PA-SEN, PA-GOV, PA-12, but especially Manan Trivedi in PA-6.
Keith Olbermann just mentioned Kristia Cavere in his Tea Time segment. After campaign staffer Brendan Quinn looked at the books, her campaign actually only has $12 in it, and not the $400,000 she had claimed.
She hasn’t answered why there’s such a… ah… discrepancy.
Most notably with the OH-Sen, they have Fisher up 1%.
I think their credibility will be shot if they have the outrageous numbers they were spewing earlier in the year as the elections get closer, because only one poll matters, and that’s the poll taken on the first Tuesday in November. If it looks like they are close to the General election numbers, people will believe they are a good pollster and the cycle can begin again.
Who would be a stronger general election candidate against Paul? I like Conway because he’s not a douschbag like Mongiardo but would he increase our chances of taking this seat?
http://barefootandprogressive….
Democratic candidate Tom Fiegen, who has been attacking Roxanne Conlin almost as much as he criticizes Chuck Grassley, accuses liberal bloggers of taking bribes/kickbacks. He probably got bent out of shape over this post by John Deeth (mocking Fiegen’s criticism of Conlin’s fundraising), though he could conceivably be mad at me for assuming Conlin is going to win the June 8 primary.
Speaking of which, I went to the county auditor’s office this week to cast an early vote in the primary. Took less than 10 minutes!
Terry Branstad had an elective procedure this week to put a stent in a blocked artery. He is already out of the hospital, and his doctor issued a statement saying he is healthy enough to campaign and serve as governor.
Branstad rolled out a new statewide tv ad that takes some liberties with his record as governor.
I thought people would be interested in reading this smackdown he gave a whiny Brunner supporter who flamed him on DailyKos:
Sent that user crawling away with their tail between their legs. I think this deserves to go in some kind of hall of fame.
If people missed it, LG Fisher was on Dkos for an hour or so shaking hands, digitally speaking of course, and clearing up misconceptions that have been pounded around their by Brunner’s online supporters. He actually gave real responses, and came off very well, and I feel good about his chances because of his strong connection to labor, and his connections to NE Ohio, areas like Lorain and Lake County where he can really sweep Portman, who is from Cincinnati.
http://www.pollster.com/blogs/…
RIP
I have just one simple question.
How in the hell is Vitter surviving?
The man is a hypocrite. He likes to screw high class expensive whores and likes diapers, and yet he is still way ahead in polls.
Did IQ drop down to like 15 in Louisiana, or what??
WTF?!?!?!?
Everything at a municipal level is nonpartisan (officially). I got 3 races I am following statewide.
Galveston Mayor.
My friend and former city councilman Joe Jaworski is running for mayor. Joe was the democratic nominee against Republican State senator Mike Jackson in 2008. Joe is to be considered the frontrunner whose lead opponent is community volunteer Betty Massey who worked in the recovery after Hurricane Ike. Massey seems like she would be a good second choice if Joe loses. Bill Quiroga and Greg Roof are bad news, business republicans. Quiroga is especially troubling saying he’s only be on the clock part time and wants to eliminate ALL public housing (yes, he has a business interest in eliminating it).
http://joeforgalveston.com/
Flower Mound Mayor and Council.
It seems the city of Flower Mound, north of DFW in Denton county, has found a new way to get additional revenue by drilling the Barnett Shell natural gas well . . . next to elementary schools. The mayor, Jody Smith, is getting hammered for this and has gone hard negative on her opponent, Melissa Northern. Smith apparently has gotten Mike Huckabee’s endorsement as well as local GOP congressman Mike Burgess. Over 6,000 have early voted, which is how many signatures were gathered to protest the gas drilling. Guess who I am supporting.
http://www.melissanorthern.com/
Denton City Council, Place 6
Boring, boring boring. The Mayor is getting re-elected, but I have a friend running for the open city council in Place 6. Phil Kregel is a young Republican, but he means well and is pretty moderate on what matters to us in this college town. Should Phil not win, I hope for Hatice Salih, James King is standard big business Republican.
http://www.therightchoiceforde…
Okay . . . back to Utah.
going to poll the CO-Sen race? The last non-Ras poll was by PPP in early March. I’m surprised this race isn’t getting more attention.
Congressman Steve “10 Worst” King (IA-05) spent the whole day in New Hampshire campaigning for Jennifer Horn, Republican candidate in NH-02.
His “analysis” is just so astute that I think we should go ahead and swear Kelly Ayotte in tomorrow, election be damned! Apparently Ovide LaMontagne can beat Paul Hodes in November because he’s “personable” and “easy to like” while Hodes just wants to talk about George W. Bush all day.
http://rothenbergpoliticalrepo…
will embolden the tea-baggers to knock off more establishment candidates? Could Grassley or Castle go?
Sign of the changing times?
has widened his lead even more. He now leads by 4. I think he can pull this off.
http://www.muhlenberg.edu/main…
The Indy Party nominated a former Republican for the gubernatorial election. That should certainly help us a lot more this time around considering they have a tea-bagger as their nominee, who will chase away the GOP leaning swing vote in the suburbs to Emmer, vs our nominee pushing the DFL leaning swing vote in the suburbs and cities to the Indy.
on the Tuesday primary elections in WV-1. The Democratic primary should be an interesting gauge on both the incumbent distaste as well as the Tea Party power in the Southern Democratic party. The local media has come out against Mollahan as corrupt, and the Oliverio camp seems rather boisterous about their chances.
http://www.sacbee.com/2010/05/…
was fantastic in my view. I think has Specter launched his attack later, it might have stuck. I’m an unabashed Sestak supporter but I really thought that response ad hit home.
I don’t even dispute Specter’s critiquing of Sestak’s career-ending demotion or whatever in the military. Worse things have happened in the world than being demoted for being demanding and such. He wasn’t charged with a crime or anything. Specter needed witnesses to whatever he did to be in his ad, i.e Swift Boating.
As for the whole payscale thing, that was debunked so easily by every media outlet. Media outlets even proved that if the same math was used on Specter’s staff, some of his staffers would be under minimum wage. (For thos ewho don’t know, Specter’s math involved looking at monthly pay and dividing bu fullt ime hours for the month. So part-time workers making $10 an hour would show up as making less than minimum wage is you divided their monthly earnings by full-time hours. It was silly).
The attendance record attack could have hurt more if he’d focused on it. Unfortunately I thinkt here will be a rebuttal there too. I think Sestak, while admitting less than stellar attendance, is going to point out that part of the time he missed votes he was with his father, a retired military man, who was dying. If Sestak puts out that ad, Specter is toast. IMHO
http://blogs.mcall.com/penn_av…
He raised only 365k, Pat Toomey raised 1.05 million for comparison. Specter spent 3.65 million, and has 5.8 million CoH. Toomey has 4.6 million. Of course, it looks like Sestak’s numbers could end up more important if his lead of Specter continues to build.
it’s an open thread and such. I’m intrigued to see how bennett and maybe specter and mccain vote in they lose their primaries. there’s no reason to vote anything but their conscience. Plus, unlike those retiring, their party screwed them over, so they don’t have much of a reason to keep quiet to preserve their reputation (or a chance at a comeback considering their ages). mccain and specter’s temperaments could make them especially amusing.
for Bennett and the possible major party candidates?
If Bennett is a lot more well known than the others, could he be viable as a “write-in”?
😉
I know who the Republican nominee will be when Scott Brown retires: Richard Ross.
When Brown ran for state House and gave up his seat on the Board of Selectmen, Ross succeeded him. When Brown resigned his house seat, Ross succeeded him. Now, Ross is running to replace him in the state senate.
Hes like a stalker.
with comments that was up a few hours ago but has since been pulled, or did I imagine it?