Research 2000 for The Great Pumpkin (5/10-12, likely voters, 5/2-4 in parens, 3/15-17 in brackets):
Daniel Mongiardo (D): 39 (39) [47]
Jack Conway (D): 36 (32) [31]
Other: 10 (12) [7]
Undecided: 15 (17) [15]Rand Paul (R): 45 (44) [40]
Trey Grayson (R): 35 (32) [28]
Other: 7 (7) [14]
Undecided: 13 (17) [18]
(MoE: ±5%)
In his post, Markos has trend lines dating back to his last poll of this race, commissioned in March. However, R2K also polled this race just a week ago for a group of local news outlets. I’ve inserted those numbers in parens, and the March numbers in brackets. Between this poll and SurveyUSA‘s latest poll showing Mongiardo only ahead by a single point, I think we can say that Conway is making his move. But will it be enough on Tuesday?
General election nums (March in brackets):
Dan Mongiardo (D): 38 [37]
Rand Paul (R): 43 [46]
Undecided: 19 [17]Dan Mongiardo (D): 36 [38]
Trey Grayson (R): 42 [43]
Undecided: 22 [19]Jack Conway (D): 39 [39]
Rand Paul (R): 42 [45]
Undecided: 19 [16]Jack Conway (D): 35 [36]
Trey Grayson (R): 43 [44]
Undecided: 22 [20]
(MoE: ±4%)
The situation looks mildly better for Democrats against Rand Paul, but a looming weakness remains: both Mongiardo and Conway are fairly beat up, with favorables at 47-42 and 46-44, respectively. Grayson’s at 52-27 and Rand Paul sits at 56-27. Hopefully the Democratic nominee can do a better job exploiting Paul’s weirdo politics than Trey Grayson has been able to do in the Republican primary.
That was a name considered by the Smashing Pumpkins before settling on the name that became famous. It’s a good thing, too. “DailySmashingPumpkins.com” is a little unwieldy.
As far as I’ve been able to piece together, Rand Paul departs from his father just enough to avoid the weirdo tag. About the only issue where I can find that he fully agrees with dad is on the general principle of military restraint, which is anathema to conservatives and Republicans but much less so to the general electorate. And of course it’s not hurt him one bit with conservatives and Republicans.
It just seems to me that maybe Rand Paul is really closer to the mainstream than partisans on either side seem to believe.
That doesn’t mean there’s nothing to exploit. But I’m not sure there’s as much as is assumed.
I don’t question that Grayson is a tougher out for us than Paul, and we want Paul to run against. Of course, we need Conway to be our nominee to get over the hump. So I’m crossing my fingers. If we somehow win this one in November, it will be a huge one for us.