HI-01 Predictions Thread

Voting officially ends at midnight eastern (6pm local time) in the all-mail special election in Hawaii’s 1st Congressional District. We’ll be liveblogging this race tonight (because somebody has to!), but feel free to use this thread to submit your predictions or for general pre-game chatter.

UPDATE: Here’s a last minute poll of the race from some firm called ccAdvertising (5/20, no trend lines):

Ed Case (D): 31

Colleen Hanabusa (D): 17

Charles Djou (R): 36

Undecided: 15

(MoE: ±3%)

I’m not sure if this is registered voters, likely voters, or family pets. In any event, the pollster seems to have a love affair with significant digits, giving results down to the hundredths, and also finds Democratic voters split perfectly down the middle, 43-43, between Case and Hanabusa.

(Hat-Tip: Darth Jeff)

92 thoughts on “HI-01 Predictions Thread”

  1. Djou 38, Case 35, Hanabusa 27.

    As much as I prefer Hanabusa’s politics, I think Case wins the primary and then wins again this November.  And I’ll be perfectly happy to trade Djou for Case in November.

    My head says we lose tonight, but my heart still wants to believe Case pulls it out in an upset.  If that happens, it will demoralize Republicans more deeply than they ever imagined possible.  Lucy already pulled the football on them in NY-20, NY-23, and PA-12, and a loss tonight would leave them laughing just so they don’t cry.

    I don’t think I’ll be able to stay up for results so late at night, being on eastern time myself.  I’ll have to wait until morning to learn what happened.

  2. Djou 38, Hanabusa aka Tweedle Dumb 30, Case aka Tweedle Dumber 30

    My message to everyone who allowed this situation to happen: “Get a brain, morans!”

    And here’s hoping someone big gets in the primary for November and prevents either of these imbeciles from getting on the ballot.

  3. I start to feel not so good about dumping him in six months. If he is under 40 then OK. I predict Djou 38, Hanabusa 31 Case 31!

  4. I don’t think most of the people who have posted so far on this thread know how many candidates will be on the ballot in this special election.  There are 14 candidates with their party affiliations being 5 Democrats, 5 Republicans, and 4 others.  Most of the posts have shown the three major candidates garnering 100 percent of the vote.  I am sure that will not happen.  What percent of the vote do you think the minor candidates will combine to receive?  My prediction is Djou-39 percent, Case-31 percent, Hanabusa-26 percent, others-4 percent.    

  5. Democrats see how bad this looks and many who would have voted decide it’s not worth it.  I predict also that Hanabusa’s supporters will be a bit more energized than Case’s, getting her second place.  

    Djou-45%

    Hanabusa-30%

    Case-25%

  6. Case 35%

    Djou 34%

    Hanabusa 27%

    Others 4%

    Not that I’ll be waiting with baited breath…

  7. Unfortunately, Djou wins here thanks to the jungle primary which could come very soon to a polling booth near you (if you live in California.)

    Djou 39

    Case 30

    Hanabusa 28

  8. D- 56

    R- 39

    I- 05

    I like the looks of it better this way.

    BTW there are a total of 14 people on the ballot, 5D, 5R, 4NP. Maybe some of the minor Rep will split a bit of the Rep vote?

    (R) AMSTERDAM, C. Kaui Jochanan

    (N) BREWER, Jim

    (D) BROWNE, Vinny

    (D) CASE, Ed

    (R) COLLINS, Charles (Googie)

    (R) CRUM, Douglas

    (D) DEL CASTILLO, Rafael (Del)

    (R) DJOU, Charles

    (R) GIUFFRE, John (Raghu)

    (D) HANABUSA, Colleen

    (D) LEE, Philmund (Phil)

    (N) MOSELEY, Karl F.

    (N) STRODE, Kalaeloa

    (N) TATAII, Steve

    Results link. (PDF)

    http://hawaii.gov/elections/re

  9. Djou – 37%

    Hanabusa – 34%

    Case – 26%

    Hanabusa’s support, I feel has been underrated by the pollsters throughout the race, and will come up bigger than expected and almost steal it.  Democratic support overall comes in around 60% yet Team Blue still goes down to defeat.

    Sunday’s line – Thanks a lot Case, you selfish bastard.

  10. But when the hell is the Hawaii Legislature going to change it’s special election system, this is a pathetic failure, at least introduce an instant runoff mechanism or something.

  11. The question is really how much Djou is going to win by and I’m going out on a limb and say this:

            Djou- 46%

            Case- 30%

            Hanabusa- 24%

  12. This is my first time doing this, and I don’t expect to be one of the closest, but no harm in trying 🙂

    Djou 36

    Hanabusa 31

    Case 24

    Others 9

  13. Djou: 38%

    Case: 30%

    Hanabusa: 27%

    Other candidates: 5%

    I’d say there is about a 70% chance of a Djou victory, and about 25% chance of an extremly narrow Case victory and a 5% chance of an extremly narrow Hanabusa victory. Case will probably do better than Hanabusa in the special because of his higher name recognition.

    In terms the status of this seat after the special, if Case or Hanabusa wins (unlikely but possible) then this seats probably going to go to Likely Democratic.

    If Djou wins (most likely scenario) it’s going to be the a toss-up for November for when he only has to face one Democrat (IL-10 is the only GOP toss-up seat I see, and DE-AL and LA-02 are both Likely takeover/Dem at the moment, so only 4 seats the Dems won’t be underdogs in November 2010). HI-01 isn’t as reflexively Democratic as many other districts. Yes Obama pwned in both HI districts but Bush got a decent 47% of the vote in 2004 and I’m sure Lingle won HI-01 in both of her elections as Governor. However I can’t ever see it leaning GOP with Djou in it unless he votes with Democrats on the big important votes. HI-01 Cook PVI is D +11 so it would be the second most leaning Dem district (after Cao in D+25 LA-02) to be represented by a Republican. So yeah he won’t fall easily but he will be significantly easier to take out than many incumbent Republicans in swing or slight Dem leaning districts.

  14. I’m not saying it is entirely out of the realm of possibility that Charles Djou manages to win re-election in November, but he’s going to be running against one Democrat instead of two.

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