2:46am: Ada County is now all in, and it was a landslide for Labrador: 58-35. With that, SSP is calling it a night! Overall, Labrador has a 48-39 lead on Ward with 426 of 462 precincts reporting.
2:34am: Kootenai, the last best hope of mankind Ward, is now all in, closing the gap to 45.5-40.2 for Raul, but the margin is still 3400 votes with 378 precincts in. This thing rests on Boise, but the indications are that that’s Labrador country.
2:30am: If anyone is mopey about Vaughn Ward losing tonight, just remember these words: Raul Labrador is Bill Sali’s BFF.
2:27am: But that doesn’t mean we’ll stop updating! We’re now at 369/462 (using our corrected math that the AP has yet to notice) and Labrador still has a solid 3400 vote lead.
2:20am: SSP is going to call this baby for Raul Labrador, with our model showing him headed for a 47-40 victory over Vaughn Ward. (jeffmd)
2:11am: We actually think there’s a glitch on the AP’s back end (and our own). Ada county is actually reporting 64 precincts total — that is, for both ID-01 and ID-02. The actual number of Ada precincts that have reported in ID-01 is between 32 and 34 right now. This shouldn’t affect the final result, though, as Labrador is currently beating Ward by a wide margin there. So this brings us down to 348 precincts overall and a 46-40 edge for Labrador.
1:51am: We’re up to 371 precincts, and Labrador leads by 46-40 (or about 3400 votes). Labrador looks good to win this thing — and while I know that may seem disappointing to fans of Vaughn Ward’s idiocy, I have a hunch that this Bill Sali-grade Republican is gonna turn out to be a pretty fun guy to run against, too.
1:41am: I spoke too soon! Our sheet is now up to 332/462. Still a 46-40 Raul lead, though.
1:40am: Oops, the AP has leap-frogged us. Their count, at 325/462, has Labrador up by 46-40. We’ll update our sheet again soon.
1:26am: Check out GOP incumbent Mike Simpson’s sucky showing in ID-02. He’s surviving his required teabagging, but only has 57% of the vote with about three quarters reporting.
1:20am: Finally, some daylight. 286/462 now in, and Labrador leads by 47-40.
1:17am: Check it out, Swingnuts. We’ve now added a “projection” column on our spreadsheet — based on the votes we’re seeing so far, we currently project that Raul Labrador will win this sumbitch by 3255 votes.
1:12am: Oh whoa, we’re halfway there! 235/462 now in, and Raul leads by 4% (or about 1600 votes).
1:09am: 225/462 in (check out our spreadsheet, we’re faster than the AP!), and Labrador is up by just under 1500 votes.
1:04am: 214/462 now, and it’s 45-41 for the Lab.
12:59am: 195/462 now, and Raul leads by 44-41.
12:57am: If you want to see our results spreadsheet in action, click here. We’ll be keeping it updated!
12:51am: 168/462 now, and hey, movement! 45-41 for Labrador, who’s continuing to do well in the Southern part of the district. (jeffmd)
12:47am: 156 precincts in, and, guess what!!!! Still 44-42 for Raul.
12:41am: Pass the dutchie pon’ the lef’ ‘and side. 139 precincts in, and Raul still leads by 44-42.
12:36am: 132 precincts now, and Labrador still has a 44-42 lead. The biggest wildcard left seems to be Kootenai county, where Ward crushed among absentees. He’ll need to do well in the election day vote there to have a shot at winning this.
12:26am: 113 precincts plus the absentees gets us back to a 44-42 Labrador lead.
12:21am: 107 precincts and our assortment of absentees gives Labrador a 43-vote lead out of 21,000 votes counted so far.
12:18am: With 91 precincts and a grab-bag of absentees, Ward has pulled into a 43-43 tie with Labrador.
12:14am: We’re now at 81 precincts plus assorted absentees, and Labrador is still leading by 43-42. Geographically, Labrador is doing well in the north. Ward’s doing better in the south.
12:09am: The AP has also called the GOP gube nod for incumbent Butch Otter, who only has 55% of the vote so far. Not impressive at all!
12:07am: With 74 precincts in, plus absentee ballots from Ada and Kootenai counties, Labrador leads Ward by 44-43.
12:01am: And over in ID-02, the AP has called the race for GOP Rep. Mike Simpson. I’ll be interested to see his final margin, though.
12:00am: With 67 of 462 precincts reporting (plus Ada absentees), Raul Labrador now has a 47-41 lead on Vaughn Ward.
11:49pm: SSP’s latest count: With 36 precincts reporting (plus Ada), Labrador leads by 45-42.
11:40pm: Uh, for anyone anxiously waiting for more results out of Ada, check out what their website says: “As in previous years, it is our goal to update our Web results at least once every hour-and-a-half. More frequent Web updates would cause further delays in the counting process, since all counting machines must stop counting in order for us to update results.” Jeez Louise.
11:34pm: Now we’re at 15 precincts (plus Ada), giving Labrador a 46-42 lead. Simpson leads Heileson by 58-26.
11:30pm: The SSP bean-counters now have the race at 45-42 for Labrador. This count includes 10 precincts district-wide plus the Ada County absentees.
11:24pm: The AP has called the Democratic gubernatorial nomination for Keith Allred!
11:22pm: Keep an eye on ID-02, where GOP Rep. Mike Simpson is leading John Birch Society member M.C. Chick Heileson by 57-26 so far after adding up the nums from all sources.
11:14pm: Adding everything up from all sources (unfortunately, no one source has all the reported results just yet), Raul is up by 46-42 on Ward.
11:07pm: Alright, we have our first results. Check out the Ada County link at the bottom — Labrador leads Ward by 1,824 to 1,551 votes there. (These are the absentee ballots.)
10:53pm: We should get our first taste of results some time after polls close in the Pacific Time area of the state (in seven minutes), so hang tight. The key counties to watch are Kootenai (Couer d’Alene), Ada (Boise) and Canyon (Nampa).
Most polls in Idaho close at 8 pm Mountain time (10 Eastern), with some closing at 8 pm Pacific (11 Eastern). We’re a little early for liveblogging, but we may as well get the results thread up now so that you can crack open a sixer and share your predictions in the comments. Also, if you have any additional results links, please post ’em in the comments.
RESULTS: SSP Master Doc | Associated Press | ID SoS | Ada County | Canyon County | Kootenai County | Other counties
of the two Republicans do we want to win? Which is a weaker candidate that is to say. It seems the gaffe machine is more establishment and has more money but I don’t know enough about the two. I do know that I wouldn’t count Minnick off just yet.
Now which one was that? Both? Oopsie…
for Ward.
And I may be delusional, but I say Rammell breaks 20.
Whoever loses, we Win.
it be possible for Minnick to teabagg Ward if he is the nominee? He could run a campaign commercial showing clips of Ward clearly plagiarizing Barack Obama’s 2004 convention speech and that could kill Ward among Tea Party folks. I know as Democrats the thought of a Democrat running from the right is nauseating but this is Idaho after all.
Idahoan potato babka?
If it’s widespread like in California Ward may have banked enough votes before his craziness was fully exposed.
is on it as usual, although I guess you really only need a map for the gov race since they don’t do county breakdowns for house races.
Ward is from Meridian. Labrador from Eagle. Meridian is bigger than Eagle.
District has 462 precincts, of which 80 are from Ada county.
So whomever wins outside of Ada county should win.
And little chance of a 3rd candidate winning on the GOP side as Ward and Labrador bash each other.
Since polls closed. Why is ID so sloooow?
nanpa (sometimes written nampa) is Japanese for cruising for girls; hope we don’t have anyone from Japan on this site 😛
are hanging out on this thread, waiting for a primary election literally in the boondocks between two politicians not exactly persuading on talent but very promising in entertainment value. This Swingnut thing seems to have some real basis. 😀
Hard to decide who’s more electable of the 2. Ward has hundreds of negative ads ready to go against him, and Labrado has no money.
Rammell’s probably going to make it into double digits after all. Oneida County in the SE is fully in and Rammell beat 20% there.
Um, yay?
And it’s one giant ganj break? How can only 11 precincts have reported in an hour and a half…
…
So…what, the electric generator can only power the voting machines OR the computer?
I was going to make some sort of crack about how this is what you get when your state is run by people who don’t want to give the government any money, but A) I’m too tired and B) I guess it sort of speaks for itself anyhow.
But another incumbent with less than 60% in the primary.
a winner-take-all format? Could there be a runoff? Or will Ward’s dreams end tonight?
Homer, er, Mike Simpson wins.
Otter should have it called anytime now but his performance is pathetic for an incumbent. He’s getting below 50% in some places that are done reporting.
But again with less than 60% of the vote.
probably be dream scenario.
Ward has a big advantage (54-29) in Kootenai among absentees. If anything like that holds up there, it’s going to be tough for Labrador to win.
I get that it’s an anti-incumbent year, but he nearly lost election back in 2006. sure it was a dem year, but it’s also idaho. is this just anti-incumbent tea bagging stuff, or does he have some fatal flaw known mainly to idahoans (idahites?)
This sucks, I think this race just got both less interesting and harder for Minnick.
AP has had Payette all-in for a while.
with bonner county going against ward, i think the bell bones for him. koonehai will PROBABLY tighten the gap, but i think it’s labrador’s.
14 GOP
1 NP
Kootenai county only has 28 precincts left.
Labrador it is then. Which begs the question…which is more unlikely: that Idaho would be represented by a Democrat or a Puerto Rican?
Because both scenarios do kinda make my head a little explode-y.
does this mean that the teapartiers get another victory to trumpet?
If the Democrat in this race is a Tea Partier, and especially if it’s true that he’s been hostile toward the Idaho Democratic Party, as a post on this site stated, why does this race matter?
Jay Leno just did a side-by-side of Ward and Obama and showed how much the speeches they made are similar and how Ward ripped off Obama’s material!
An Idaho primary is Tonight Show monologue fodder.
If only he had won…
i c wut u did ther. 🙂
hopefully Labrador will come out with a statement tomorrow saying that Obama’s bootheel to the throat of North Korea is un-American, and that he supports the repeal of the Clean Water Act and the 19th Amendment.
Then and only then will I accept Ward’s loss.
In some political aspects Idaho is a mirror image of, say , Massachusetts: just as in Massachusetts a lot of essentialy conservative people, closer in their views to Republicans, not only registers but runs for office as Democrats, because Democratic nomination is much more valuable in the state, in Idaho – substantial number of moderates still runs as Republicans because of similar reasons. And this day, which is at least somewhat “anti-incumbent” in Idaho (much more then in previous states, where usually only 1-2 legislators were defeated in primary), is bad for moderate Republicans in state Senate: of 3 most moderate state Senators 2 (Coiner and Schroeder) seem to lose primaries, and third (Stegner) probably survived only because he was unopposed. What buffles me – there are similar losses on the state House side, but there it’s usually conservatives and ultraconservatives who lose…
Rammell broke 20%, and actually ended up at 26%. Sucks that opposition is almost always scattered here. On the other hand, the Controller was reelected by only 56-44.
The legislators who lost:
13B-GOP: Steve Kren 43-57
21A-GOP: Rich Jarvis 38-14-48
S3-GOP: Mike Jorgenson 41-59
S8-GOP: Leland Heinrich 43-57
S24-GOP: Chuck Coiner 43-57
Two undecided primaries:
6B-GOP: challengers
S6-GOP: Gary Schroeder, losing 44-56 with 24/33
The losers’ 2008 scores from Idaho Conservative:
100: Kren
100: Heinrich
80: Jorgenson
40: Coiner
25: Schroeder
NS: Jarvis
Average D Score: 41 (My D rep has the only 100 for a D)
Average R Score: 89.85
This the loss of three fairly moderate GOP senators is disastrous. Votes in our senate are often 18-17, and I hate to see that change. The next senate could be as bad as it was in the 1980 session.