AR-Sen: Halter Leads Lincoln, Boozman Leads Both

Research 2000 for Daily Kos (5/24-26, likely voters, 5/10-12 in parens for general election match-ups):

Blanche Lincoln (D-inc): 44

Bill Halter (D): 47

Undecided: 9

(MoE: ±5%)

Blanche Lincoln (D-inc): 38 (40)

John Boozman (R): 58 (54)

Undecided: 4 (6)

Bill Halter (D): 42 (41)

John Boozman (R): 53 (50)

Undecided: 5 (9)

(MoE: ±4%)

Bill, finish her! This is the third consecutive poll from Research 2000 showing Lincoln fading in a head-to-head against Boozman, and her net general election favorability has dropped to a negative 21 points — while Halter is still in the black by 10. While the runoff should still be an incredible dogfight, especially since Lincoln has the Big Dog, Bill Clinton, in her corner, I’m liking Halter’s odds. And that means we may have a fighting chance of at least making a race of this state in November.

We should note, though, that R2K previously looked at the runoff question in a methodologically unsound snap poll for Democracy For America. That poll has Halter up by 48-46.

26 thoughts on “AR-Sen: Halter Leads Lincoln, Boozman Leads Both”

  1. We either end up with a 60-40 Boozman win or 55-45 Boozman win. Though I’ll take my chances with the guy who has the shortest route to 50 percent +1.

  2. I do think Halter would help with Dem turn-out, however.

    Dem – 35%

    GOP – 33%

    Indie – 32%

    Boozman – 17/93/65 = 58%

    Halter – 83/7/35 = 42%

    GOP – 35%

    Indie – 33%

    Dem – 32%

    Boozman – 95/68/20 = 61%

    Lincoln – 5/32/80 = 39%

    With Billy Boy, I actually expect Lincoln to narrowly win the primary, probably ’round 51-49.

  3. Yeah, Halter is in better shape than Lincoln, who is just plain dead in the water, and scarcely worth supporting anyway. But that’s like saying Jerrold Nadler is in better shape than Louie Anderson. Or maybe than saying he’s in better shape than Dom Delouise…

  4. I was thinking she might pick up some of the Morrison voters, but her numbers haven’t moved from her result in the first round.

  6. I think Halter has gained more support than Lincoln since the primary, but technically this poll could possibly mean that they’re exactly where they were on May 18.

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