Research 2000 for Daily Kos (5/24-26, likely voters, 1/11-13 in parens):
Richard Blumenthal (D): 52 (56)
Linda McMahon (R): 33 (34)
Undecided: 15 (10)Richard Blumenthal (D): 52 (54)
Rob Simmons (R): 37 (35)
Undecided: 13 (11)
(MoE: ±4%)
It was looking pretty dicey for a couple days for Dick Blumenthal, but we now have our second consecutive poll showing the state AG remaining remarkably unscathed by the brouhaha surrounding his Vietnam flap. (Quinnipiac gave Blumenthal a 25-point lead yesterday.)
His favorables are at a respectable 53-35, while McMahon only has a 31-37 rating — not the place you want to be for a challenger. Maybe Rob Simmons was right? And speaking of Simmons, R2K also tested the Republican primary, finding McMahon ahead of Simmons by only 48-44. I’m not sure if Simmons would have dropped out if his own polling concurred with that result, but who knows. Quinnipiac pegged the primary at 43-29, but keep in mind that half of that sample was called on the day that Simmons dropped out.
must be hoping things work out half as well for her.
I think polling mattered only to the extent that he clearly was trailing, even if by only a little.
But he knew he couldn’t raise and spend McMahon’s millions in a primary, and his resume while clearly superior to hers also wasn’t a slam dunk for voters in its own right. He’s not Blumenthal, a sitting elected officeholder who is within his own party.
So I think Simmons just decided winning the primary would be too hard and even if he pulled it off, the late primary meant he’d have little time left to restock cash and make the general election competitive.
Also, that the GOP has such a big playing field this year actually would’ve worked against Simmons. They have to pick and choose where to spend money, and there are just so many other places to play that CT probably would’ve been far down the list to help Simmons.
I don’t doubt Simmons spoke his head and heart when he said McMahon can’t beat Blumenthal. He’s right. This is safe Dem.
Charlie Cook won’t be running to the barricades to change his rating on this race even after what, 3 polls showing Blumenthal up 15+?
Yet he changes Oregon-GOV to Lean D after ONE!…SHADY!!…RASMUSSEN!!! Poll that showed Dudley tied with Kitzhaber.
I’ve been pretty ambivalent towards Cook so far this cycle, but as far as I’m concerned he’s shown just how far out of touch with reality he really is. Do you guys realize that, according to Cook’s ratings, Richard Blumenthal is in roughly the same position as BLANCHE LINCOLN?!!
Sorry for the capitals, but I’m in a bad mood today and I need to rant about something.
I wonder if there’s a chance Simmons gets back in the race, especially if McMahon doesn’t get any traction. I cannot imagine anyone believing she is a better candidate than him, except for the money thing.