Research 2000 for Daily Kos (5/24-26, likely voters, 5/10-12 in parens):
Joe Sestak (D): 43 (40)
Pat Toomey (R): 40 (45)
Undecided: 17 (15)
(MoE: ±4%)
A nice post-primary bounce for Sestak here, whose favorables have risen to 48-30 (up from 39-26), compared to Toomey’s 47-42. A key finding here is that Sestak draws Toomey to a 35-35 tie among independents, whose votes will be the key battleground in the fall. Fueling Sestak’s rise is an uptick in support in Philly and its suburbs, and in Pittsburgh, where he now has a four-point lead (up from a six-point deficit a few weeks ago).
And, just because I’m curious to hear what you think, does anyone else agree with me that the breathless media hype surrounding the “Sestak job offer!!” is one of the most overblown stories in recent memory from a horserace perspective?
And the White House’s handling of it has been terrible; it’d have been a one-day story if they had just been upfront. Everybody does it, everybody knows it, there’s a zillion past examples of it.
It’s really ridiculous. Even if the administration had flat out offered Sestak an administration position to drop out of the Senate race, it would not be illegal. I’m not surprised that the “offer” (if you can even call it that) consisted of President Clinton having a warm talk with Sestak about serving on an executive board while continuing to be a congressman.
The idea that they would want to kick out Ray Mabus after a few weeks of being Navy secretary and risk a House seat in a swing district is just ludicrous.
These wild-eyed conspiracy theorists (I’m casting a side eye in your direction, Darrel Issa) don’t understand this and are just looking for a reason to demand special prosecutors and talk about Watergate.
Where were these people when Bush/Cheney were committing crimes that actually qualified as impeachable offenses?
If both sides had came out sooner, this would not be a big deal. The fact is that the administration should have said we offered him an unpaid position months ago. Now everyone is skeptical and it will continue to be talked about as this story seems awful simple that it should have been answered before. The Obama administration is slowly turning into Bush II when it comes to public relations it appears.
Not that I think Sestak will be as inept as Deeds was, mind you, but I remember Deeds got a bounce in the polls from a somewhat unexpected win in the VA-Gov primary that turned out to be illusory.
The election made him better known than McDonnell in many circles, in the same way Sestak might now have higher name rec than Toomey does.
in the other thread
I’m skeptical of the party breakdown for this 2010 election
R2K poll CNN ’08 exit CNN ’06 exit CNN ’04 exit
D 47% 44 43 41
R 39% 37 38 39
I 14% 18 19 20
I’m having trouble believing that the D portion of the vote will increase over ’08 (at th expense of Is)- though am also surprised that the proportion of R voters has been so stable.
Nevertheless the trend is good, and I don’t see the silly unpaid job flap posing a roadblock. The unknown is whether Sestak’s surge is temporary, based on publicity from the primary.
the job flap hurting Sestak is that he turned it down; fundamentally, if you want to frame it as a bribe, he showed he couldn’t be bribed. It might make the White House look bad, but not him.