250 thoughts on “Weekly Open Thread: What Races Are You Interested In?”

  1. Since all the 2010 Sen and Gov races are pretty much set on the candidate front, with the last holdouts, Rossi and Cuomo making their announcements, what competitive races (and candidates) could we see in the next 2 years?  

  2. according to this article: On the way out and not so restrained

    I hadn’t seen this mentioned on SSP anywhere.

    The Democratic lame ducks include two place holders (Delaware Sen. Ted Kaufman and Illinois Sen. Roland Burris); three retirements (Dodd, North Dakota Sen. Byron Dorgan and Indiana Sen. Evan Bayh); and one incumbent (Pennsylvania Sen. Arlen Specter, who lost his primary).

    The Republican short-timers include one place holder (LeMieux); one primary casualty (Utah Sen. Bob Bennett); and five retirees (Bunning, Kansas Sen. Sam Brownback, Missouri Sen. Kit Bond, New Hampshire Sen. Judd Gregg and Ohio Sen. George Voinovich). In addition, Texas Sen. Kay Bailey Hutchison, who lost a gubernatorial primary, has said she will leave at the end of her term in 2012.

    …

    In 1996, the Senate was home to 13 retirees, a modern-era high-water mark, according to Jennifer Duffy, the Senate specialist at The Cook Political Report. Not since 1980 have four or more senators been beaten in primaries.

    Will Lincoln (hopefully) wind up being #15?

    I think McCain will avoid being #16, though.

  3. From the Abramowitz study at the Democratic Strategist:

    http://www.thedemocraticstrate…

    The findings in Table 1 once again show that among Republican incumbents, conservatism had a substantial and statistically significant negative influence on vote share after controlling for the strength of the Republican Party in each incumbent’s state and the national political climate at the time of each election. In contrast, among Democratic incumbents, liberalism had only a small and statistically insignificant influence on vote share.

    aka, if Rs turn right, they’re more likely to underperform the R Presidential candidate – by 3% for every point increase in conservatism (on an 8 point scale).

    If Ds turn left, they still perform just as well (as incumbents).

    This is a follow-up to http://www.swingstateproject.c… which studied R results.

  5. Branstad seems to be looking ahead to the general election, with ads focusing on contrasts between him and Culver.

    Bob Vander Plaats went up on tv for the first time on Monday (just over two weeks before the June 8 primary). He began with a very weak ad mostly about his pro-business agenda, and by Thursday shifted to a contrast ad saying he was the only Republican candidate to embrace Arizona’s immigration law.

    Part of me would like to see Vander Plaats win the nomination, because I believe Culver would easily beat him. The other part of me wants Vander Plaats to be irrelevant to Iowa politics after June 8.  

  6. This is Rep Burton’s district where some teabagger to the right of Burton managed to win the Democratic primary.

    If you are prepared to what is quite possibly the most stunning display of ignorance in the history of the interwebs, check out these clips from a local meeting:

    http://tpmlivewire.talkingpoin…

    Honestly, I don’t know whether or not to feel bad for the guy.  At first, I thought it was obvious that this was a sinister plot by a conservative to shelter Burton from any serious opposition.  However, after watching all the videos, Crawford comes off as such an idiot that it seems entirely possible that he doesn’t realize the insanity of what he’s doing.

  8. I just found out a surprising fact: The Speaker of the LA state House, a Republican, is from La-02. A large portion (maybe even all) of his district is contained in La-02. Maybe in a slightly friendlier 2014 district, he can be a serious candidate, as he is term limited in 2011. I’m surprised by the many prominent Republicans I could come up with relatively fast in this district.  

  9. Normally, Maryland isn’t a source of much drama around election time, not compared to other swing-ier states anyway.

    But we’ve got a MD-Gov rematch that bears watching, plus a hotly contested House seat (the 1st CD, which the Democrats had written off) that the Republicans threw away through an amazing and improbable sequence of events last time around.  

  10. The filing deadline passed yesterday, and while there are Democrats running for Governor, Secretary of State, School Superintendent, and the at-large House district, none of the races are looking particularly competitive. The field for Governor is a bunch of nobodies. The closest race may be that of School Superintendent, as the incumbent is being challenged in the primary, and the Democrats actually recruited a somebody, State Senator Mike Massie. In the state legislature, a large majority of the seats went uncontested. Only 5 of the 15 Senate seats and 18 of the 60 House seats are being contested by both parties. I feel sorry for Wyoming elections junkies.

  11. How do I save each district? If I click to show partisan by color, will it keep the outlines of the old and my new districts?

  12. Robert Gates said that he would probably not stay his full term as Defense Secretary. Would Jim Webb likely be considered to replace him?

  18. The Bluegrass poll, commissioned by the Courier Journal, finds Paul leading by just 6. 51-45.BP is the gold standard in polling here so I would trust it. Considering it is Kentucky in 2010 that is good news. If Conway can  turn the comments into a negative add it could be effective. Especially in Louisville where he will need to get the AA voters out in full force. Kentuckians are not all racist hicks and Paul is not the right fit for the state. Conway will win this, I have little doubt.

    http://www.courier-journal.com…

  19. Why would she try to tie herself to an unpopular figure? All she does is scare away the moderates in a fruitless attempt to win over the wingnut base, you can’t out-nut Angle .

  20. Ross Perot got 22% in Texas in 1992, which undoubtedly is reflected in some of the congressional district results. Say there was a district that was 35% Bush, 40% Clinton, and 25% Perot in 1992. Looking at just the ratio of Bush-Clinton results though, this becomes 53% Clinton-47% Bush, which more accurately represents the partisan divide between the two candidates. If I wanted to contrast the results that year with the 2008 results then should I show the raw results, of the ratio between the two candidates? Same thing would apply for 1996.

  21. The filing deadlines in 35 states have passed. So far the Democrats have left 21 seats unopposed:

    AL-01

    AL-04

    AL-06

    CA-21

    CA-22

    FL-01

    FL-04

    FL-06

    FL-21

    GA-06

    GA-09

    GA-11

    MO-09

    PA-09

    TX-01

    TX-02

    TX-07

    TX-13

    TX-24

    TX-31

    VA-06

    The list of seats the Republicans have left unopposed is much shorter:

    CA-16

    FL-17

    PA-01

    Looking at the remaining states, I expect the Democrats will have the most trouble plugging the holes in Louisiana. Republicans will probably miss some districts in New York and Massachusetts (they haven’t filed a full slate in Massachusetts since 1956 — the closest they’ve gotten is all but one district contested in 1996).

  22. We got a primary on Tuesday, with Susana Martinez most likely winning. She also just cashed a check for $450,000 Bob Perry of swiftboat fame.  

  27. but he’s thankfully getting crushed by Carly.

    We are dodging a serious bullet here.

    Campbell really needs to smell the coffee.  He’d be a national leader as a Democrat, but he’s doomed as a Republican.

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